RE: How Long Will Cryptocurrency Last?
I wouldn't call my view pessimistic, I am ruled by an apathetic practicality in all matters regarding humanity.
Regardless, I do understand that you made the post fired up and hammered it out quick which I believe I addressed right away in not so many words. There's plenty to be said regarding advocacy and I, too, am advocating in my own way. This emerging crypto world is full of people who seem to forget both the purpose and process of a currency, I'm sorry to be the one to say it, but an aimless revolution is quite useless. Do you know how long I rode the "bring down the banks" train? A year. By 2010 I had realized that the progress was not keeping up with the promises, it's a timeline that has saw Bitcoin transition from something you could buy illicit drugs with into a bloated make-believe commodity where transactions are both expensive and slow. This is not going to change anything and, honestly, the altcoins out there are just baby bitcoins with the same fundamental flaws and fundamental problems.
Gambling on coins is not going to make a lick of difference, in that case it will always be this silly game that people can play until regulation happens and the game is up. That's what I referred to when I said, Until then, it's a race against the clock." Yes, actually, this can go back in Pandora's box. "They" are the power structure you're railing against, they have no interest in your whimsical dreams because it is inherently disadvantageous for them to indulge them. This is a threat to the status quo, and honestly the elephant in the room that nobody wants to acknowledge is that bad people can, have, and will continue to do bad things with cryptocurrency. Do you know how difficult it is to fund a clandestine terrorist group? There are counterterrorism units dedicated to chasing terrorist groups through their money, I would not be surprised if bitcoin has been used to shift funds from sponsor to network to cell. You're not prepared for that hitting the public's consciousness, and as I've said already if some talking head asks the magic question you can be sure the game will be up. There will not be an unregulated crypto game for normal people after that, the USA will be first to cook up draconian legislation and then it will be the EU. Prices will fall through the floor and so many people will be left holding the bag if there isn't a cryptocurrency used as an everyday currency by this time.
So about those questions. All those questions I posed aren't solvable by UI, it takes a fundamentally stable market for this to work as a currency and for this to truly change anything. Currently no coin is displaying the market behavior necessary for stability, the issue of, "I need to see if my internet monies are worth what I thought they were worth," is a glaring fault that will exclude any and all widespread adoption by the regular person. People don't want digital nothings that go up and down while they sleep, potentially leaving them without a means to feed their children, they want things to work. They want the stuff they have to remain there, forever, until they need to use it. People do not have the time, energy, or patience for the market game under ideal circumstances and absolutely none if their children's welfare are on the line.
This isn't pessimism, this is as pragmatic as I can possibly be and the clock is ticking.