Bats in the Belfrey--Week 1 July 2018

I am extremely new to trading cryptocurrency. Okay, I'll admit to being extremely new at trading anything. I traded Pokemon cards as a kid but I even kind of sucked at doing that. So, what follows is not financial advice. If you take it as financial advice--well, you're stupid. No other way around it. It would be like the blind leading the blind guided by a dog with homocidal tendencies. I'm telling you, it won't end well. Do your own research. Seriously, I will be lucky if all this works out.

This blog is a kind of a way to hold myself accountable. Okay, it's actually a way for me to look back at my own level of stupid during any given week. Without further ado... (or doo doo as the case the may be)

Wow! You're still reading. Well, aren't you an interesting fellow...or gal...or purple people eater. I try to keep a sense of humor and it's twisted, so pull up your big girl panties and here we go...

I bought three cryptos over the last few days--THREE. That's code for my donkey's hindquarters are more broken than Heath Ledgers' in Brokeback Mountain.

Buy numero uno was BNB aka Binance coin. I got some on July 1st for 0.0022605. Then to compound my error I bought more on the third for 0.0021822. Since then BNB has steadily declined. She hasn't dropped like rock, but she's been on a slow decline. As of this writing she's sitting at 0.0020760 BTC.

I would like to formally apologize to all you BNB holders out there. See I broke this mirror a few years back...

Truthfully I don't regret the buy. I've spent the past month studying the Ichimoku trading system and I'm pretty okay with it. BNB is continuing to show signs of a bullish trend. The price remains above the cloud. The cloud is green. The tenkan is above the kijun. I look for the price to get to or close to the kijun at 0.0020591 in the next few days and then bounce. I don't know if it will be a complete reversal or just bounce between the tenkan and kijun a couple a times before going higher, but if you move the chart right the cloud is continuing to show a bullish mildly upward trend through the end of August.

The stoch RSI was also really low when I bought in despite not buying at a TK crossover. It's one of the reasons I chose to buy this crypto when I did. This one will probably be on my list for a few months because I really want to hold it at least until the next token burn. From what I've read I'm thinking that is going to be around the second week in October. I might jump out earlier if a TK cross happens sooner, but I'm just not seeing it in the future cloud.

Of course, right now I'm losing BTC on this. Every morning I get up and a little more is gone. Poof. I'm really hoping when she makes the turn around it's going to be a real turnaround. I'm not seeing a moon here--maybe we could hit a cloud though. I'd be happy for a cloud.

Buy number two is putting bats in my belfries. I bought BAT at 0.00004216 BTC on July 2nd. I bought it inside of a bullish cloud at the point of a TK cross. So, I broke one rule to enforce another. Now I'm finding out why the rules are not even meant to be bent in this case.

So...now she's dropping faster than Tom Cruise in a Mission Impossible movie. It wouldn't be so bad, but four hours ago when I checked TradingView the articles on BAT posted yesterday and today were hyping it to buy. Right now they're hyping it to sell. Truthfully, I may have to jump out of this and take a loss.

While the TK hasn't crossed back the cloud shifts between the 8th and 9th into a bearish trend. We're already below the cloud on price which is also a bad sign. If we pivot back up I kind of look for us to hit that 0.000035 BTC price point first. If we go through that, then I'm running away from this like my backside is on fire and I'm next to the gas pump. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a TK cross in the next couple of days and for me to just have to take the loss and move on.

The only reason I'm not hopping out yet is the RSI is low and the tenkan is still above the kijun. Also...I suspect I'm being stupid. You know--little things.

Buy number three I really like. I think I got it at a good time and even if I have to wait I look for a big gain on it. That buy was ETC aka Ethereum Classic. I bought in at 0.0025 on July 3rd, 2018. At the time of this writing it is setting at 0.0025748 BTC.

So, I bought in the cloud again. I know you're not suppose to, but what can I say--I'm a rebel child at heart. Call me Indiana Jones. I bought when the Stoch RSI dropped below 20 and when it became a high probability in my eyes that the price was going to cross the kumo cloud.

Crossing the kumo cloud is suppose to be a big deal in stock analysis. At least it is in the solitary, lonely book I've read. Here's hoping it is a big deal this time. The kumo twist happening the week of July 17th is also looking to move the crypto into a bullish trend.

Without outside influence I'm thinking ETC would slowly move up, but combine those technicals with Coinbase adding ETC to their cryptos and I think this may be a big deal. It may shoot up higher than those fireworks last night. Or, not. I will probably jump out at the next TK cross, but I don't know where or when that will be. I look to be holding this one at least through the last week of July at an absolute minimum.

ETC is the only thing saving my estimated BTC balance right now since it's up quite a bit since I bought it.

Now for the other stuff I'm struggling with this week. My rental house sold today--awesome sauce right? I had an awesome tenant, but it was just time to move on due to family health problems. Money will be tight the next couple months, but in August I'll be getting a little windfall money.

I'm hoping to spend a couple thousand on crypto then. Who knows if that works out. In other news--Binance keeps dropping these random cryptos into my account. I know they're airdrops. I just don't know what the heck I'm suppose to do with them.

You can't trade them. I have no idea what wallets they match. I can't even paper a wall with them. They make my Binance account balances look messy. If I wasn't such a hoarder I'd get rid of them. I'm just saying the first one I find a way to give away it will be at like $5k the next month. It's just how it works.

Finally, I want to close with this word about Bitcoin. I watch a lot of youtubers who talk about crypto. Crypto Kirby is the only one I fully trust. Why? The dude tells it how it is. Since I first got interested in crypto the bitcoin bulls have been coming.

This is not like Game of Thrones and winter--it cannot be 'coming' for seven seasons. We're either in a bull run or we aren't. I'm not trying to be a Debby downer here, but if we'd had as many bull runs as y'all have predicted in the time I've been watching youtube I would have had five Lambos--and I'm a truck kind of girl. Just saying.

The simple fact is the Ichimoku is indicating a continued bear market for Bitcoin through the end of August at a minimum. The force within the bears looks strong.

I haven't been doing this long and most of you have been doing it a lot longer, but one thing I don't understand is why people treat a bear market like it's the plague. That like us trying to abolish winter. You can fight it, try to avoid it, but you're better off accepting it and working with. People are still making money.

I mean, I'm not. Not really, but I'm sure someone, somewhere is.