I don't have enough back-search data on this type of set-up to talk about probability here. All I know is that I wouldn't feel too comfortable shorting above this major confluence of uptrend lines, so I won't.

Nothing about that picture says bear-market to me. Looks more like a healthy (expected) correction in a bull market up to this point in time, although it did break a major support level on the 8-hour chart that I provided in the earlier comment, which is a bearish indication.