Is it Time to Sell Bitcoin for $USD?
A lot of people likely share in the sentiment that Bitcoin's continuing price rise is seeming a bit long in the tooth (due for a deep correction) and I believe that they're right. I even have some technical analysis (TA) to show it!
Log Chart, 3-Day Candlesticks of BTC/USD (Bitstamp):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YPoQdAN4/
Note that I used a logarithmic scale for price -- I did this for a reason (more on this, later).
The two important pieces to take from the chart above are the 1.618 fibs extension level (red dotted line near the top of the chart) of the last large scale price correction and the logarithmic price channel (black lines on the upper and lower sides of the price swings).
The 1.618 fibs extension level, or the 161.8% move from the bottom of the price swing in question, is a well known and tested, statistically significant resistance level to price swings. It has shown through the test of time to be a high odds pivot point to future prices. Of course, nothing is a guarantee with TA, but it's always a good sign to have one or, preferably, more "strong sell signals" in the case of looking to take profits and this fib extension level is one such signal.
Now onto the price channel. If we were to look at BTC/USD on the arithmetic scale, we wouldn't notice such a clean and clear picture about the relationship between price lows and highs (pivots). Notice how the top of the channel catches almost all of the major swing highs and the bottom channel all the major swing lows. Now look at the arithmetic chart below for comparison.
Arithmetic Chart, 3-Day Candlesticks of BTC/USD (Bitstamp):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t8DD4xfk/
Notice how the best fit price channel on the arithmetic scale decently catches the lows (although not at all since the start of 2017), but isn't so reliable for catching tops. Not so helpful.
But the logarithmic price channel IS helpful. There's a very obvious pattern that has developed and it's telling us that price is likely to put in another top.
Informative analysis. I converted some steem yesterday into BTC and am getting ready to pull the trigger on exchanging into USD. Willing to let it pullback to the 1.4 level as a stop as I want to see if we can get a 2k blow off top ;-)
TY
Yes, we could def see a blow off type of top that throws out a huge wick. I agree too that $2,000.00 seems like a logical price for such a scenario.
@jamesbrown it's the right time to sell because it's going up but we would be missing the all time high if we do now - the rise of the altcoins' on!
There's never really a right or a wrong time to sell. It really just comes down to investing/ trading styles, which is determined mostly by goals and temperament.
I'm an active trader, so I try to profit from price swings, but I'm also an investor who pours profits into markets that I believe will grow over time. With bitcoin, I both trade and invest.
Even if I'm almost certain that the price will take a dive, I still won't sell more than 1/3rd of my position and I've made a pledge to myself to never touch at least 10 of my bitcoins for at least another five years.
Great analysis - ALWAYS use log charts!!!
It is certainly a great time to take some btc off the table. unfortunately I got pantsed in alts - completely missed this move...
Thanks :)
Yeah, I definitely don't discriminate when it comes to what scale I use to look for price patterns and the log chart is particularly useful for parabolic type moves/ movers.
You basically called the top TO THE MINUTE if this pullback continues...
Time will tell :)
I just finished some calculations and I was pretty surprised myself when I saw the results. Such crazy numbers, I will not even share because they really look insane although they are solid. But thing is that although 1,700 or so seems pretty high, its nothing. Even double value is nothing, even ten times is no stop. Only barrier is psychological perception when price "might seem" too high for us (and yeah, 1700 USD looks like expensive number to me whatever it is), but after applying some math, I'm pretty sure it's only illusion. I advice you do your own math, don't follow just our feelings and then decide. I will only say that there might a day when we will not use BTC as a Bitcoin unit because it will be too impractical for its huge value. Sure we can see some ups and downs as people tend to panic but under current conditions there is only one strong direction in long-term IMHO.
I agree and I believe that this day will come pretty soon, actually, perhaps even in the next three to five years. My suggestion is based on short-term outlook, like over the next month.
You're right that it's mostly psychological barriers. I'm just trying to profit from them.
it's definitely time if i have enough to sell,no waiting.
Its time to sell..