While Most are Bullish on Bitcoin... Could Price Instead Be About to CRASH?! (UPDATED)
Hello guys, so I scrubbed my BTC/USD chart today and re-analyzed this pair. I now actually believe this move up might actually have already went as far as it will go and Bitcoin will overall return to going downwards. Let's get straight into the analysis.
In this first image I illustrate how Bitcoin actually lost the high recently and after this happens price tends to retrace upwards to an un-tested level of resistance before moving downwards overall. I believe this move up recently has hit the un-tested level and so I don't expect us to go any higher than we have:
So where is the un-tested resistance level that should be the end of the retracement up? Well to find this we look inside the initial retracement on a smaller time frame. I have marked in purple just the initial retracement in this image firstly so you know what I am talking about:
OK so now you know what price area I am talking about, let's zoom in there and find a level which was once support but got broken through WITHOUT being tested YET (we want to find the un-tested level which is closest to current price which would now act as resistance):
The horizontal red line above is of course the level I am talking about and price has only just tested it (and bounced down off of it) today. I expect Bitcoin to not close above this line and price to continue down from here to at least the $6,000 area.
Well that is my analysis guys, thanks for reading and let's see if it does play out this way. It very well might not of course because I am still in the infant stages of learning this methodology of reading the market!
If you want to learn more about this way of reading financial market price movements you can watch these videos by a guy with username DopeTrades:
He also offers a trading course (which I don't get paid for promoting, I just feel the need to because I am writing about some of the information he talks about in that course) that you can find here: https://www.tradersunderground.co/
Again, thank you for reading and enjoy your day :)
Update: Big Money distributing/ selling their Bitcoin after the pump?:
Legal Disclaimer: This is just my analysis and not to be taken as professional financial advice. Do your own research beyond what you read in my blog posts and make your own decisions based on your beliefs about what to invest your money in.
Although I am really happy about the recent bullish outlook in crypto world, the last few months have been nothing if not a lesson well learnt.
So I am taking this uplifting mood of the market with a grain of salt. Particularly with 17 April just around the corner, 6000 might be very real possibility. With these these factors in mind your analysis does make a lot of sense and we would all do well to pay heed.
Although I think people who are in it for the long term would probably consider this too a bump in the road. As for me I am in it for the long haul.
Yes I should have stated in the post that this is not a long-term Bearish signal, just for the near future. Weekly Closing below the 5,400 level would be a long-term Bearish signal so we are still a comfortable level away from the danger zone currently! So yeah as you said 6,000 is a real possibility in the near-term, but I wouldn't go as far as saying Bitcoin will die because of this haha :P
Good thing I bought some on the low for trading. Just gonna see how crypto rides out this year.
I personally don't feel we will have another ATH in 2018, but who knows.
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Your analysis is on point. Usally, a sharp move up is followed by a retracement later. It remains to be seen just how many days it takes. But, I too expect the retracement to occur. I'm prepared to buy at $6000.
I think that the whales who jacked the price up in an instant, are preparing for a pump and dump. So, look out, just in case........
Yes I believe that is pretty much it; strong hands accumulate most of the floating supply, then now a small amount of demand puts price up a lot because of lower amount of bitcoin available after accumulation, and then the big fish sell into the hype to get out of their position as I believe they are doing now:
They sell all their bitcoin back to ur average weak-handed individual and price dumps because they regret buying after price has already went up a lot lol
Yeah. They're slick about it. That's why I'm waiting foe the next crash.