Bitcoin: Is the bear market over?
Yesterday I recorded a video while Bitcoin was around $6,300 USD, and I speculated that BTC would rise to perhaps $7,500 USD, then today it happened. So is the BTC bear market over?
Check out my linked video to see my thoughts on BTC's price trends, and what I am doing about it.
What does this mean?
There are three considerations:
- The price rise and daily volume which is currently over 7 Billion dollars are both very bullish.
- But... the price of USD Tether is down significantly, and Bitfinex, which is in bed with Tether, is one of the highest priced BTC markets today, meaning that Tether sales, specifically on Bitfinex is in part driving this move, which is a bearish consideration.
- Also Bitmex is a leverage trading exchange and it accounts for nearly 4 billion of the total daily volume for BTC.
So what do I expect now?
To be perfectly clear, as I say in the video, I am not playing this game, I buy and hold, not trade.
Having said that I am beginning to think the BTC bear market might actually be over... But we are NOT out of the woods yet. As I stated above, Tether and Bitfinex are at least in part responsible for this Bitcoin price increase. And that is not in my view sustainable.
The Bitmex daily BTC volume is by itself nearly 4 billion dollars, and since Bitmex allows 25x leverage trading I am left wondering how much of that trading volume is actually just leverage at work? I don't know but certainly some, and leverage long positions can disappear as fast as they appeared in the first place. So Bitmex volume and leverage trading is a consideration which restrains my optimism.
So is the Bitcoin bear market over? Maybe, but I'm not certain, and regardless my plan remains the same: accumulate, accumulate, accumulate, by dollar cost averaging.
Conclusion:
I remain cautiously optimistic about cryptocurrency making it out of the bear market before end of 2018.
That does not mean I am buying more crypto today, why? Because I have been buying my coins every month, during the bear market, and I will keep dollar cost averaging no matter what happens tomorrow, next week, or next month. I don't panic buy anything, and I don't panic sell anything either.
I am not calling the bull market today, and I am not saying buy BTC, but I am saying I think we will look back on this period (August - October 2018) as the beginning of the end of the 2018 bear market. The problem is this: how long can the transition between bear and bull markets go on, and the answer is, maybe a while.
Comments & Questions:
What do you all think?
Are you buying crypto today? Are you bullish yet? What would make you bullish?
As always, thank you for your time and attention. Have an awesome day and God bless.
I don't think we are out of the bear market. Probably this pump came from USDT. If BTC break over the 7000 then, I will believe we are heading towards the bull market.
I think $6900 and $7000 are two important next steps but before that we had to see this pump so I hope and think this pump is part of the transition from bear to bull. That transition aint over, but we are walking down that path.
But you are right, USDT is a major part of the fundamental analysis of why this pump occurred, as is Bitmex leverage trading, but again, whatever the reason the TA looks better today than yesterday, and hopefully better tomorrow than today. :)
Very good analyse, great bro :)
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