Bitcoin bearish scenario study
I see this of 40% probability, but anyway it's not impossible.
but there is another question also, why the bitcoin trend is so important that I pay such attention to every single possible scenario, so do many others?
Bitcoin as a ...
Bitcoin can be seen as a technology, asset, currency and even a new trend to change the world's power distribution.
leading the crypto market
Bitcoin leads the whole crypto market in a way. the unicorn of the market, with roughly half cap of the total, and a big impact on most of other cryptos.
speculations
many people haven't yet adopted the crypto thing but buy bitcoin for having a boost in their assets and holdings. let's say they speculate. these people will help the move from FIAT to CRYPTO in an indirect way.
media
People don't like to hear about drops! it is a simple naive thing! when I hear a stock index dropped, I look in to the opportunity to get back on the next wave, ofcourse I wil study fundamentals and technicals before jumping in to a trade, but I see the opportunity rather than the threat.
not everybody else has the same feeling. price drops mean disadvantaged incident to them.
Ethereum
the ETHBTC was in the 0.06 to 0.08 channel for a quite a while, but now 0.031 seems to be the new bottom line, though I see the possibility of below 0.03 and it will be a chance for me to change my BTC holdings in to ETH.
STEEM
I was managing my STEEM holdings and value with ETH once, but in the last couple of months, as ETH dropped dramatically, STEEM seems to be better on STEEMBTC pair.
about Alession Rastani, I like his way of looking in to markets, I recommend you to follow his channel on youtube. you have to always take any decision on your own risk, but reading or watching these posts and videos are supposed to help you.
As an avid cryptocurrency investor/researcher/writer I believe that this market is going through a natural consolidation period. The markets experienced parabolic growth last year and this is just a natural retrace from this price action. Putting trading action aside, the technology of this space is fascinating. Bitcoin is not the go to blockchain for busineses as it cannot scale to manage a large transaction base. There are other/better alternatives out there which are consistently developing and pushing the boundaries of blockchain technology. Bitcoin may be the gold standard but its use cases are limited. Either away an amazing few years ahead
thanks for the comment. I checked your blog, interesting +1
have you wrote anything about STEEM?
I'd like to know your thoughts on its sustainability etc
Thanks for the comment in regards to my blog. I try to write in-depth reviews on projects which I see with potential. Really is just my own personal research which I compile into articles which makes them quite long. If you scroll back 2 months into my blog you will see a post I did about steemit , think 11 articles back. I think this platform has a very bright future, this , I feel is the future of content creation and curation. Blockchain is here to better society in many aspects, this is one of them. The current bear market in the crypo sphere is the reason for the low value/cap of steam, which I would not worry about either, natural retrace from an overall unstantanable bull run last year. The tech in this space is only evolving, including steemit.
I think what the crypto community needs to consider - is what moves the market? I would suggest that public perception was behind the movement last year, and it will take a massive media story, or a revolution in btc usage in order for a major spike to happen. When cyrpto can be used easily on your cell phone for everyday transactions, there is no telling what the price may spike to. Great article. Cheers!
thanks for your kind comment. I also wish and hope for the day crypto penetrates many cellphones and handles ppl's transactions 🤞
A common misconception. The reality is, the media reacts to the market, not the other way around. However, they will never admit to this because they like to pretend they are an authority.
I don’t think that is completely true, they probably have an effect on each other.
BTC will rise the more People think it will rise, how they come to this conclusion doesn't matter. Actuall price movement or just secondary information, when people buy, the price rises.
too bad, most of the investor and holder react to media, not acting on market movement.
The cryptocurrency market is tiny at the moment so the reality is, the dominance of BTC is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things as it's only relevant to today's market. Then when you consider the fact that today's crypto market is made up of mostly crypto enthusiasts who have a sentimental attachment to BTC that is based on its current dominant value and market share. In other words, for these reasons, the current market's community mostly believe that BTC is the most important cryptocurrency.
However, this will have very little bearing on the crypto market in 5 - 10 years time once the masses are using cryptocurrency. When real mass adoption arrives, the market will be 100 times bigger, probably a lot more are the majority won't have the same sentimental attachment to BTC as the early crypto adopters have. The masses will make their own mind up on which cryptocurrency is used the most and they WILL do their research. Granted, most of this research will be done by the media but ultimatly, it will be the masses who decide and not us.
A very important consideration that can't be overlooked and could potentially be the most important variable is the fact that, for the first 2 - 3 years of mass adoption, most transactions will be small, low value transactions. The masses will need time to learn to trust this new money and they won't be happy about high transaction fee's.
They will also want peer to peer transactions so I doubt the BTC lightening network will attract the masses.
Finally, the masses don't like to think too much.They want things to be easy and quick. This is why Amazon rose to become what it is today. It provided the easiest and quickest shopping experience at a time when most websites required 7 or 8 clicks. The reason I mention this is because you can't underestimate how important the web address of bitcoin.com is. Most people consider the exact match .com address as the official home for a business.
These reasons all point to Bitcoin Cash earning the title of Bitcoin when the masses arrive creating a MASSIVE change for the entire eco-system.
i thank you for such detailed information you shared. if you have read my post, I was studying 30 days chart, a short term for a day trader consideration. what you point out, is about a long term analysis.
estuve escuchando especulaciones de que el bitcoin bajarpìa hasta los 4500 USD , creen eso posible ?
si, es posible 🙁
i think the crypto market will recover from november until the end of december, after that there is the possibility that it will fall dramatically. :-(
i hope we don't see another major drop.
but stable sideways for a longer time... why not
even it is rise on low gradient, i would be content. as long it got a steady rise of price.
well, now this scenario is over :) thanks god!!
let's move to the next scenarios, fingers crossed
Because by observing the trend movement so we know that the price of bitcoin will rise or fall
If bitcoin does the unthinkable, i will be the happiest person as of now.
buying deeps? ;)
it's quite a tricky time to be as a holder of crypto because.... the market is going one step ahead two backwards .....but....maybe is a good time to buy?
if you don't hold passive asset, it is good to hold and ofcourse an encouraging time to buy.
steem has the benefit of being able to monetize 👍
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Can't stop; won't stop!!! Uh uh; uh uh. That is why altcoins does so good in a bear market. Fiat and altcoins are drivers for the growth of crypto. Masternodes are gaining more popularity also for passive income and the most successful real world use case.
well, so you can write meaningful and productive comments! :D
Please stop bot commenting and I will appreciate every comment you make like this with an upvote. thanks