Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: The Final Dip?
SUMMARY
And here is that one more dip I had labeled and posted on last week for Bitcoin (BTC). The yellow lines on price and MACD could be acting out the final dip to bring both that much closer to the apex. This dip is likely to again temporarily pierce the long term support line. I would much prefer to have a sudden, deep stab down in price to shake out all the weak hands and have it as a price wick. Let's see what happens this week.
The zoomed out perspective shows also the declining sequence of upward wedges and the strength of the decline for each is less and less. Would you be a buyer or a seller at this point?
To last night's log chart fractal, I've added two prior fractals in 2013. There actually were three sequential fractals (two white and blue boxes). Each generated massive gains. Could the current correction be the fractal of the first box in 2013? IF so, could there be two more fractals after the current correction tags in the first 2,539% gain? Hmmm, let's see.
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nothing to add to this analysis. I have come to the same conclusion. bull wick buy ladders @ around $6400 with more cash to spare on either lower lows or break above upper trend line diagonal..
Thanks again for your sanity check's
NEO looks VERY interesting right now by the way.. would like your take on it if you have time
Thanks Haejin for objective technical analysis. Haters will look back on their life and remember being a butthurt troll while you can remember fondly that you helped shape cryptospace globally and educated people
Check out @TruthTrader. It tracks Haejin's performance. I give #Hgin a BIG FUCKING F For FUCKING FAILURE!!!!
So what are long term investors thinking? I'm guessing BTC will stabilize for another month.. consolidate 7-10k for a month or so until June then start an upward trend towards 12-13k range.
In Fall next year it will again go parabolic as the SEC/gov regs become more certain and institutional investors come in. With the institutional investors will come the mainstreet money again and it will go parabolic. $26-28k by year end. Then 2019 BTC will be at 30k+
I agree we will likely have til the end of the month of this consolidation until we start going back into an uptrend. We might hit a lower low but i think it would be short lived. I am mostly expecting some of these shitty alts to die off and some of the better projects that are now realizing some of their potential to start climbing in market cap
Optimistic POV :)
@haejin
I do not see any reason for short-term "hope" in the overall daily chart. At this point, we are trading below the long-term resistance level, we recently had a "death cross" a couple of days ago (50 DMA falling below 200 DMA), price is trading well below the 50-day Moving Average, volume is not a significant factor - other than to indicate little overall interest is present in the BTC price at this time.
The odds are currently, overwhelmingly AGAINST a buy signal at this time. Even a noob trader should be able to see that. You have people looking at an elephant through a microscope - looking at too tiny details, searching for any scrap or thread of hope. Just be honest and tell people that we're going to keep on going lower for a while. Is it too hard for you to tell people any bad news? Or, do you just keep on giving people false hope because it keeps your vlogs/blogs earning money for you?
We are going to get a temporary bounce off of $6,000, then it will probably get tested again. Nobody knows if it's going to hold at 6K - not even the great @haejin. We could just as easily see an 80% retracement, which puts 3,500 - 4K well within play. This should still not freak people out - but there will, no doubt, be more panic selling to come before we get our next leg up. This next time, it could also take much longer to build up momentum for a good spike. If anything, 2018 is showing us that it is not going to be like 2017.
Let me do the responsible thing here and say that, for most people, this is not the time to buy BTC. The price is going lower by all basic indicators, and only a hopeless fool would be buying-in right now with the expectation they're going to see a big rise in the price. People should be waiting for at least 6K to buy-in, but I think there will be lower buying opportunities before this dip is over.
"This is not the time to buy BTC" Wow Thank God I did not follow your advice!
So, you knew, ahead of time, that Trump was going to make a tweet to de-escalate the "war drums" over the situation in Syria & with Russia??? As opposed to a, "Black Swan Event," we could call this a, "White Swan Event." Currently, this upwards momentum got stopped cold as soon as it ran into the longer-term downwards trend-line. So, this was a nice spike upwards, but we still have not breached that long-term trend-line. Will we? IDK. You don't know, either. We are now consolidating. I just saw $200 Million got sucked back out of the overall market cap by people taking short-term profits - which is a decent move at this point.
All of the moving averages are still lined-up perfectly for an overall bear market. This is not yet a confirmation of an overall bull market. It's a short bull move for a good short trade. It needs to be verified by future price action.
Did @haejin tell you, yesterday, to "BUY, BUY, BUY!!!" ??? If so, I missed that memo. I'm still good with the short trading - up 11% from yesterday. It's good, but it's not really the "big deal" that we will all see when a new bull momentum kicks back in. Bottom line, this still needs to be verified before anyone can call it anything.
Interesting start to the week...I'm wondering if this is going to cause a little bubble here then a huge spike in either direction...but in all sincerity I think we are going to have a great week as soon as April 17th is over. TAX DAY! -Respect
@Haejin It would be interesting to know where you think we are on the Hyperwave (Tulip bulb) Chart. some suggest that BTC is in fase 7?
It's not realy a tulip bulb because of the technology, the decentralised kind of money and also the ideology behind it. There is a sort of 'bulb' effect in crypto, called hurry up and wait, the tulip bulb was a hurry up and crash because there is nothing special nor new in a flower, its not a potential game changer (I mean there are a lot of flower, all flower are beautiful, but tulip is just a plant, not a new way of using money/store of value/way of exchange other coins).
There is also a lot of manipulation in price (like p&d, big hedge fund and banks that want to buy cheap and make money with volatility, etc.) that makes crypto SEEMS a tulip bulb, but the blockchain is the real difference that makes cryptos unstoppable (and BTC is the first mover and by far the biggest market cap).
I don't think it has anything to do with being centralised or not? I don't even think you understood the question. Clever though, you are right a tulip is a plant but what has that got to do with the question? lol.
I follow another guy who knows about hyperwaves who is very bearish, suggesting BTC could go to 4000 or lower. @Haejin in his TA has shown the 2013 BTC hyperwave but suggests it as a fractal similar to the current chart pattern, and suggests it could be 1 of 3 fractals higher, so opposing perspectives. So it would be interesting to know what they think of each others perspective re where BTC is going. I would put up a link to whom I am talking about but if people are interested search Tyler Jenks Hyperwave. do your own research!
Look at the second chart (closer view) of CryptosRocket's last btc TA... its from 11 days ago and it shows the last wave hitting 7.2k and going down... Exactly as it actually happened today!!! Check it out: http://cryptosrocket.com/btc/2018/03/29/lets-see-the-big-picture-and-whats-next
Yay, finally finding the TA sections on here.
While I agree with almost all of this, due to a few things I think we may go a bit lower than your targets.
BTC has a tendency to overcorrect. Sometimes due to slippage, others due to inexperienced traders in the market. It's actually why I added the -.236 to the Fib.
The pullback we had was a bit expected, thought we may tap 7200 a bit harder, but it didn't happen. If we are Extending the 5th wave, it makes sense for a solid ABC before we go to the true bottom.
A lot of people are waiting for a new bottom to be tested before jumping back in, and won't be convinced unless it happens. If we want a major new impulse it may be needed.
There are so many buys waiting between 5500-5700, that if we didn't have a giant green candle after I would actually be shocked.
So for me I see a possible 6200, but if we want a major reversal 600-5800 would be more ideal to start a very nice new uptrend.
Would love your feedback @haejin and anyone else who wants to compare TA!
(Sorry for posting a link to my chart, didn't feel like making low quality screenshots of charts from mobile!)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KKCm8aYJ-Double-Cloud-for-Confirmation/
Hey @haejin thank you for sharing the nice post its usefull for peoples your post is obviously awesome i will wait your next post 👍😍
Could this possibly be an ending 5th wave diagonal (blue triangle)?? If I remember my study correctly, it signals a significant trend reversal coming.
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5acd821419bde/