Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: And So It Begins.....a Breakout!!
SUMMARY
An Analyst knows not the exact day or time of the pending breakout; but sees one coming by the confluence of pattern, Elliott Waves and indicator. I believe this breakout is only the early preamble of what's to come. Recall the Pop Corn Symphony metaphor I had used even back in late Summer when I was forecasting that a HUGE bull wave was coming. Well, yesterday we saw the EOS kernel pop, last week saw the STEEM and SBD kernels pop..soon there will be a crescendo of popping. I believe we will rally into July; many coins have new all time high potentials.
The below chart shows a prime example of how pattern and fractals show the sapping of seller strength. Note how the first bear flag generated the deepest decline while the second only a medium and the third only the minimal. The symmetrical pattern combined with declining volume showed that sellers were becoming an endangered species. The breakout has started so is this the time to be taking SELLING or BUYING actions?
The long term picture also screams the same thing: SELLER STRENGTH is SAPPED!! The size of the wedge fractals, the degrees of decline from the upward pointing small wedges, proximity to the apex and the massively coiled MACD..all evidence that sellers are an endangered species. A MASSIVE short squeeze is in progress!
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Many people out there were surprised that bitcoin shot up without a big news announcement. They were speculating that there was manipulation.
I just laugh at that nonsense. As you have taught us sentiment moves price action, news does not.
As the price moved sideways toward the apex and the volumes declined, bitcoin was ready to spring out and surge upward.
Thank you @haejin for all you have taught us!
nonsense? if you think crypto isn't easy to manipulate and someone dumped 1.2 billion in 30 minutes out of thin air you are a fool! Yea its good, yes its sentiment but you don't sit there and ignore the facts. You think crypto cant be manipulated is non sense in itself. Have you seen amazon or google stock shoot up a 400 in a day? lol! Its a smaller market and easier to trick. Look at that candle and if you saw the action I saw in short period you know it was a coordinated buy in at the same time. Large one at that! No one is complaining about that but to ignore it is nonsense. This was to catch all the shorts with their pants down! I saw the shorts, they were lined up and it went the other direction. No one saying TA isn't valuable but to ignore other facts is not very smart.
This is interesting news. BTC was massively shorted and some big buyers just came along and forced out a bunch of idiots who were going too short, potentially opening the way for a continued breakout - but we're staying within the overall trend lines, so you can't call it a true breakout just yet.
On the macro side, Trump sent out a tweet that de-escalated all of this talk about war in Syria and Russia. The broader markets loved this, and the NYSE crowd went wild this morning.
Furthermore, the upward rally stopped right on time, at the longer-term downwards trend line. This is a key moment in time for BTC. It still has to break through that long-term resistance of the downwards trend line. If it does, it will also probably test it again - soon. If it holds as support, we're off to the races to test $8,500 and $11,800.
Is this a time to buy? If you're not "in" cryptos already and are waiting to move in some cash, wait and watch it like a hawk. This is a good time for short-term trades. If it starts to get another big upwards move, buy in! If it starts to get a big downwards move, wait.
Always ladder in your entries to avoid the buyers remorse!
Exactly! It's always much better to take incremental profits, or losses, as opposed to going "all in" and losing your money. At least then, if it's another bull trap, you can STOP/LOSS without getting bit too hard by the bear. But, if it goes up - great! This is what we would all like to see verified.
Yea lol. We saw shorts lined up and someone came in and wiped them all. Sucker went up 1000 in short period lol! Pretty much someone poured a lot of money in to move the market and liquidate shorts. Crazy shit! I saw the candle this morning, last night I went to sleep at 6700-6800 it was I think and woke up to 7700 rofl. I saw the candle and my buddy told me it went up 1000+ in 30 mins.
The sellers at $8000 are in control at the moment. If price can take out the sellers at $8000 and $8500 price will go higher. .
Good point, yes, but the biggest resistance is at $11,800
There is strong resistance at $8500 as well.
Well someone liquidated the shorts lined up at 7000 I think lol. Lets see if they can keep pouring a billion+ each time to move it up. Haha, appropriately there was 1.2 billion traded in like 30 mins when it got pumped. Holy shit! Biggest volume in 15 year history I read somewhere! Someone really wanted to eat them shorts!
Totally agree, that is my mid term target 1 with target 2 at $17k.
@Haejin - Just checked my indicator and totally agree! Provided Bitcoin prices hold steady or increase to the close today - we have a new Bitcoin Bull! It's about time.
They are dropping slightly i think we will see lower prices. I've taken profits ready to buy again when we see another dip but maybe it will go higher yet. .
It's a wonderful day waking up to seeing a big fat green line. :) My main trade is BTC/XVG. I see a micro cup and handle forming. It has been channeling it's first set of waves. I am curious to get your assesment of it's current count. It looks to me that we are in the B wave of the larger ABC correction. When channeling, does the larger trend break out or does the channeling continue? If we were to drop down to the previous 4th I would expect a drop to around mid 700s. Thanks again!
Forgot to add the current correction looks like a flat correction. Elliott Wave principle, the book you recommended, mentions that we could see a double or triple if we don't get enough downward pressure. Is that a more probable route with a short correction? I know you are busy on all this stuff but if you could cover this topic in one of your videos that would be fantastic!
I'm not seeing a flat because then B has to be higher than origin of A.
Please look for update on xvg/btc pair. It'll be posted later today.
I don't think it's an ABC because if current rise is a B it needs to be three wave (abc) but it doesn't look three wavish but five.
Wow, maybe that means my 1 and 2 count was off. We could have another high to go (1500-1600 potential). The price spike on 4/5 1:00 throws my count off as the last high doesn't have room for a micro 5th. Although it does have another micro wave that could be a truncated 5th. I just read that if the count doesn't make sense then hold and wait. That's what I am doing. Thanks again for posting updates on XVG/BTC!!
Very beautiful thoughtful analysis. Been reading your posts for 2 weeks now. Appreciate your timely and informative updates. Diligently voting for your effort. Thanks @haejin
Can we get an update on Expanse??
I would like that update too.
Will do!
Let's not too ahead of ourselves. Trade volume is still low. Ordinarily, the bounce would not have been as high. However, a lot of shorts had to be covered. They got caught with their pants down. Short covering caused the bounce to be explosive. Let's see what happens, as the dust settles. There could be more renewed shorting, if btc fails to stay bullish.
Only 1/3 of shorts covered though... so might still happen again if a major support gets broken. Way to volatile to short without stops which means ups are as violent as down swings.
Yes, usually, the first vertical move retreats deep. Look at Steem and SBD.
It will be interesting to see how deep a retreat it will go. I'm thinking we might see support at $7450. If lower, I'm buying :)
There is a higher chance it would drop again, so now would be bad time to buy. I just think the best thing is to hand on for a bit
Yeah, it tried to reach 8000 again but failed, twice. Now, it's below 7800, as I type this.
yea yesterday in our group chat we saw shorts lined up. So we thought it was going to dip, it did a little but someone came in and wiped the shorts and caught them with their pants down. We didn't expect it to go that direction but big pump wiped it out lol.
@nkd11 It's been above $8000 for the past 5 hours. I'm keeping an eye on it. If this is the peak, people might start selling and shorting. It could be a wild ride. What are the volume levels?
It's not looking as though it will drop. I am getting nervous.......will sleep on it and check it out in the morning. :(
Lol, well it should not, for us that bought at 8000
There is strong resistance at $8500. So be prepared for a drop in price if it doesn't break through the resistance.
Yes I noticed, just hope it doesn’t go below 8000. That would be fatal
If it breaks past 8500, the next line of resistance is at 9500.
It hasn't retreated deeply yet. But I'm still watching. If it does, I will be bullish for the future. It can only drop so much before the buyers get involved.
I'm still waiting on the deep retreat.......trying to catch it on sale lol.
I guess we will just have to wait it out.
B00M For Real...@haejin , can you comment on DGB?
yea supported. @haejin please comment on DGB ASAP, thanks
Just posted update on DGB, please use only to augment your due diligence.
https://steemit.com/digibyte/@haejin/digibyte-dgb-two-pathways-but-same-destination
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Your analysis is outstanding, a standing ovation is due you. Congratulations for being the master and calling this progressive decline to be coming to an end.
You are right, i’m Glad I stumbled on this post.