Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Be on the Lookout for This Potential!!
SUMMARY
Bitcoin (BTC) overnight price action has shown that the corrective pathway is likely an ABC zigzag (5,3,5) correction. Primary count shows that wave a,b are likely done and c down is in progress. The bottom white support line must not be decisively breached. A temporary piercing is expected and favorable as then it would be a bull wick; but the breach can't be decisive.
The alternate pathway for the correction is shown below in blue abc waves. It only means a longer time frame but same destination.
The subsequent five waves down for the blue c wave would provide the abc bottom and marking of wave 4. Again, the bottom white line support needs to hold.
Here is a chart of a longer degree of trend view. Once BTC reaches the top blue line to around $12,354; that becomes a critical junction.
What happens at that critical junction will determine whether this whole rise was a bounce or not. More to come in later posts as to what to lookout for at this juncture.
Overall, we need to have into close awareness the potential for a bull trap scenario. IF we see indications of this; farming for cash could be desirable! I still remain bullish and believe the bottom is likely in; but NOT fully until we breach this top blue line decisively.
Legal Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor nor is any content in this article presented as financial advice. The information provided in this blog post and any other posts that I make and any accompanying material is for informational purposes only. It shoud not be considered financial or investment advice of any kind. One should consult with a financial or investment professional to determine what may be best for your individual needs. Plain English: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
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I believe @haejin is correct about his long term view of bitcoin dropping to around $4k
The graph above shows a major crash back in 2014 around the same months as now and it is very similar to the crash we are having now
(My wave counting might be off but same destination either way)
Here is current crash with what is expected to happen similar to the crash in 2014. History tends to repeat itself.
The difference seems to be this crash is happening a lot faster than the one in 2014 but that makes sense consider bitcoin is a lot more popular now than it was then.
Meaning this correction shouldn’t last as long. And then after this final lower low, we should see higher highs of $20k+ in the months to come.
We will just have to wait and see what happens, be prepared for anything.
Thank you Haejin, I learned everything about EW from your tutorials and they are priceless, and your daily updates calm my storm when things start acting up.
It's great to see the comparison, thank you.
As much as we would all love 4K BTC, I do see some fundamental differences between the two senerios. Mainly with volume confirmation and the inverted H&S pattern that was absent in 2014.
Thanks for your update, @Haejin!
Bitcoin Breakout IMMINENT! Where will it go?! https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@investingtips/imminent-long-term-break-out-up-or-down-for-bitcoin-this-is-a-pivotal-moment
As long as the DUA continues to remain so uncharacteristically low as it is today I would not expect to see real recovery until that metric begins to creep up again. I wrote about this a couple of days ago and it is still down. Hopefully, many are reading till the last line to note that the bull trap scenario continues to be in play. It is possible that the bottom was already in but the price continues to be quite heavy today compared to its established value trend of 9 years. I believe there are some deep fundamentals that characterize this, which is captured in sentiments, and then gets expressed in the charts.
Valid point...great article...
Hahaha! Good one!
well memed
Thanks :)
sense of humor is medicine
Some potential movements to form the right shoulder
This fits well into my forecast with a wedge forming a shoulder. Be interesting to see if it is as large as yours. I'm thinking smaller and more downward. Thank you Haejin for community and awareness.
LTC is also forming quite a long pennant, I've been mapping this Inverse H&S for about two weeks, this was my initial count
LTC chart is messy looking in comparison but the volume confirmation is amazing.
Hi, @haejin - if btc drops to 3800, what then?! Maybe it will keep going to zero?! (I f*cking hope not!!)
Dude if it goes to $3800 then it’s off to $20k+ guaranteed. I’m actually hoping it drops to $3800 to buy more. There’s too many whales looking to make a lot of money from bitcoin for them to just let it drop to nothing.
There is absolutely massive money coming in during 2018. The institutional money, pensions, family offices, etc. If 3800 happen's, perhaps the big boys cause it so they can get their money fully invested.
I hope so!
just like the 'yearly' dip occurs when wall Streets hits bonusses, strange coincidence :)
Strange it is:)
That would be nice!
That is no possible !
Maybe, if we lose internet.
I'm still very wary of the fact that most of the btc is owned by so few people, if they decide to cash out, it's over.
Check up my article on a possible realignment that might be beginning to shape up. There is a good chance that we might be beginning to see blockchain growth where bitcoins is not as much its driver as it used to be. Either that or the upcoming Lightning network will return things to how they used to be and usher in even more explosive growth by solving the scalability problem to an extent. But something may have to give because on the fundamentals it doesn't look like bitcoins has currently fully recovered.
I'm guessing you own zero BTC, so yes your BTC will be zero.
I'm just saying that because if I thought for a second BTC was going to zero I certainly wouldn't invest in it. Blessings
@haejiin, Have you notice how the sub-micro (in your chart not the one bellow) wave (1) and wave (3) have the exact same length. It is common in an ABC correction for wave A and C to be equal but in an impulse Wave 3 cannot be the smallest... which is why I have labelled this as an ABC yesterday. Is this another scenario to be aware of? Or do you have arguments to take it off the table?
Also you mention how wave 5 could breach the upper channel boundary briefly, but given that primary wave 1 could retrace 50%, what would be indicative of a scenario of probable lower low vs. a normal primary wave 2 correction? Would the volume profile be different?
Thanks a million for all your posts and teachings.
Wish you the best!
hi thanks again !
i choose to believe the 5 larger downward waves are alreay in :
its made using standard toilEtt waves
we need volume to move it to 12k
Bull Traps are Cryptos M.O.
Upvoted.
Thanks.