Bitcoin (BTC) Evening: When is the Best Time to Buy?
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SUMMARY
Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing a healthy correction. It is likely a Zig Zag (5,3,5) correction which is explained in detail in my FREE Tutorial on Elliott Waves. So, the red circled A wave consists of five sub waves and the red B wave consits of three subwaves while the C wave harbors five sub waves. I've labeled the subwaves of C wave in green and will be tracking this in real time. Price is likely in green wave 3 of 3 which is often the portion that extends the most and fastest and hence looks like a vertical fall. I've drawn out horizontal support lines to identify possible green wave 5 stop points. Currently, I've set $11,479.
The below chart shows how I count the subwaves of each wave of wave 5 of C. This allows quality control of Elliott Wave counting since subwaves confirm confidence in wave placements. Subwave counting allows one to gain "geo-positioning" and allows more precision casting of buy ladders. The below shows that wave 5 of 5 of C would be ideal buy ladder cast zone. As this correction matures and nears the end, let's see if we can identify these buy zone ladders!
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
Follow me on Twitter for Real Time Alerts!!
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If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
Interesting. Just the other day you were saying its going to boom to 23,000. Now down to 11,000
You learn as you go, the main thing i learn first drop is how to get money out and safe. Yes, you can make massive gains but also massive losses. If its to much for you you shouldnt be in the game.
This is exactly why people say, dont bet with money you cant live without. Once it breaks the neck line everyone panicks, at least with Haejin you are aware it will stop at 11k maybe sooner but imagine for a second you didnt have that awareness.
Some people will be selling everything just to get out, then when it shoots back up as quick as it went down they are going to be in a mess.
Im thankful to haejin for the peace that he brings. Also he does have a disclaimer on every post. Your decisions are your own.
Learn from this and prepare for the bounce back EOS LISK, these coins have the protential to be $300 coins,
Even if lose my money. It won't change my financial position. I guess some people have so much money that watching your portfolio lose 75% of it's value in 24 hours isn't a big thing. But if your like me and work 60 hrs a week and are hoping that this crypto revolution will get me out of the grind. It is quite the dream killer to see this. I don't lose sleep over it because I'm too tired from working 60 hrs a week to even stay awake and worry.
This is going to go up again, don't worry.
The dip needn't have happened NOW, but then it isn't as deep a dip as the two dips before this, in 2017 - look it up.
It's probably okay insofar as we're now (almost) free for a run towards New Year's Eve - hopefully.
Think that the Bitcoin Cash Coup planning people are partially to blame for the enhanced hysterics, and that there are loads of newbies in this game now who panicked and fled, so that crypto lost 100 billion market cap in one day !
Sheer hysterics. And still, we're recovering.
All manipulation, hysterics and the expected correction right before Christmas time, when people are actually not so eager to invest...
This is not the end - it's not even the beginning of the end, and crypto right now is the value that investors invest into it. So, wait till you can smell the garlic ;)
With a bit of courage, everybody wins.
Thanks for the positive outlook. It is appreciated. I am confident that it will head back up. I've been through 2 corrections already so I should be used to it. I still get rattled. Chatting on here is the only way I have to vent. I don't know anyone personally who I can talk too during these times of crypto duress.
I talk to real people all day but they're not interested in crypto, so the web must do... I'm subscribed to about eight or nine guys on youtube, only the very rational ones - Haejin is one of the most interesting but there are others. It helps to gain orientation... Haejin isn't big on general outlook, he's a purist, and general outlook is a great thing to have.
Still, in times of duress there's always a long wait for info ANYwhere. You have to make sure you don't do anything exotic or buy coins that nobody knows, and you will eventually be served some news... however, theres several times a year when the situation itself gets exotic. So here we are. Now I'm waiting for the damn thing to go up before it goes down again, I already bought one dip and I'd like to buy another before we finally go towards 20k. So far I'm only doubling the household money ;)
You can speak on a lot of group on Telegram for example, i'm french, but i'm on different Telegram, ans we can speak of that and a lot of another things , courage, you are not alone on the web ;-)
If you are in the crypto, you will be in for several year by now, enjoy, learn, thereare lot of interesting projects and the world will change, i'm very optimistic.
What's happening right now is perfectly normal, when you're doing a 100-metre run, you have to rest a little bit at a given moment, the same thing if you climb the everest, the BTC and its little ones, it's the same thing.
Rom
Iota to the moon!
You sure? :)
yes, $50 in '18
IOTA in 3 years, 30USD. It is just a hype for now.
Do you have any info/updated charts for EOS? Best regards
$23000.00 is still valid. This is just a healthy correction. Slightly different path, but still leads to the same place.
Tony, apparently you only read the part of the post that you want to read. That exact same post he said let’s wait and see if the alternate path will be a bearish correction, with a head and shoulders pattern. Literally exactly what has happened
I’ll copy and paste the quote and link for you since it seems you’re on the lazy side. Here you go:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-bull-flag-fractals-everywhere
So he is always right, right?
I'll place a considerably large bet that he is right 50x more often than you would be. I would also expect that if you were to perform analysis like him, you wouldn't have posted that extremely important last sentence of the article.
It's called adapting your analysis to changed circumstances. It's exactly what makes Haejin such a stellar analyst.
Oh look another fake account
Exactly.
I love how you @haejin rekt some investors then suddenly changes his mind because it's actually not working.
Rekt? 😂 Those investors you speak of should've stayed in school. This isn't a financial advice. I hope you aren't one of the "investors" 😂
And? If he called it right which is from luck anyway. All hail @haejin? When he called it wrong. It's not financial advice?
Don't get me wrong but people are believing in this and I hope you don't get rekt eventually by one fo his calls.
Except he didn’t call it wrong, you just didn’t read thoroughly
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-bull-flag-fractals-everywhere
it's their fault if they believe in it, everyone has his own head to think,cryptocurrency world is unpredictable and it's not related to some kind of waves, it's depend on people, if they buy more it will go up if they start to sell it goes down, this why I don't believe in such preductions, I read the news and take a look if the coin is usuful or not, then I buy it, the only thing I am sure about is that bitcoin can go again to more than 20k because it's very famous now, just whales have done something to make him go down again to buy more and take profit, so I think it's good to buy with them, and if you have bitcoin don't sell but wait.
Apparently you also only read the part of the post that you want to read. That exact same post he said let’s wait and see if the alternate path will be a bearish correction, with a head and shoulders pattern. Literally exactly what has happened
I’ll copy and paste the quote and link for you since it seems you’re on the lazy side. Here you go:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-bull-flag-fractals-everywhere
These people wouldn't learn a thing from your hard work. Just let them be. Nobody who understand what TA is would ever ask the kind of questions that you are trying to answer. TA is like surfing. Any TA who takes firm positions is a scammer. You've got to adapt and TA is a great tool for that. Anybody who surf with a firmly set directions and pathways is a person who is soon to become a drowning victim.
This should be TA 101
@tonypeacock Go back to fiat man.
It looks like we haven't even started subwave 5.....since tip of wave 4 can't overlap tip of wave 1. Please correct me if I am wrong.
If I am right we are probably going lower than 11k...maybe around 10k.
Good count.
How about this huge jump you were predicting few days ago?... Gone with the wind? :)
Go read the WHOLE post again, then come back and delete your comment.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-bull-flag-fractals-everywhere
A short attention span is not the sort of phenomenon that can be alleviated by pointing out its existence.
AMEN.
You do understand that a prediction is not a promise, right? There are so many moving parts that simply cannot be accounted for that nobody can achieve 100% correct rate in this game.
Where I said it's a promise??? Prediction which changes every few days what would you called?... Like this is red almost blue but green....
What do you think ? It's impossible to know what will happen tomorrow as it's impossible to know the exact date and time when death will take us away from me for comparison, but it's the same for trading, it's possible to make AT that will give an idea of the market, what Haejin is doing in an extraordinary way, which I appreciate, I'm learning with him and others, and I thank them for it.
of the time he gives us by doing these articles and videos, and I learn from reading books, but no one will ever know exactly how to predict the course, but TA gives us an idea.
You can't blame him for doing that; -)
We might have just started the last subwave of the correction, still not sure as my counted subwave 1-2-3 could just be 1 instead.
Here is Bitfinex :
And here is Bittrex:
Yes, this reply is a winner...champion...victorious (raises two fists in the air)!!!
thanks for sharing.
Wouldn't it be nice if good TA was 100%? Think he has claimed 55% (which has proven to be quite low).
hahhaha
welcome to cryptoworld, this is how it is here.
Its so disappointing , I was going to sell some BTC but with the price crash, I won't make anything out of it. Will the prices ever go back to $18000?? The only question on my mind
I am pretty confident we are still going above 20k. So far this is nothing but a healthy correction.
The Middle Ages were just a healthy correction of the Roman Empire - just a thousand years later, things had caught up again ;)
I like your comparison with humor and history.
:-)
This. No need to fret over things, just hold on over this dip and get back to the game in January. You lost your chance to sell on profit, so just let it slide and rebuild itself.
should be back to normal in a month from now.
Not yesterday then?
I see what you mean, but what ?
Several analysts, even at Coindesk, mentioned the possibility of a decline towards 11k days ago, but that was just one scenario - it's all psychology, and we have lots of amateurs in crypto now, plus we are watching a serious BCH manipulation by influential parties...
It's therefore important to rather have an optimistic overall outlook because psychology will manifest itself in the market like a self-fulfilling prophecy (this being the essence of all prophecy) as the manipulation initiated a crass correction phase that wasn't really necessary (some will say it was necessary but I don't believe so - human self-hypnosis).
Now haejin's take is that BTC will rise towards 23k soonish, and that the only thing unpredictable about that is the time frame - this must be well understood. Time and fluctuation and unexpected events, Elliot Waves cannot predict asteroids, so that can always ruin things for awhile but it doesn't change the underlying logic.
From a personal view I can say that so far, haejin has almost always been right, and when things didn't work out for me it was because I grew impatient. It's a vice I forgive myself...
I bet in this case even stoic hodlers are starting to get nervous - but it's all psychology, say "Omm" and if you're still in BTC, sell and buy again when it's even lower.
Discipline is everything, and from a galactic point of view... all is still fractals.
It will rise again, I've been shopping for opinions and even the depressive analysts are still looking for 20k+, it's just that nobody now knows when, much thanks to Roger F. Ver and the Dollar Vigilante.
Good point, good reasoning, but my question is does RVer have such a power to manipulate that market?
He's Mr Bitcoin for most people, still has lots of influence over the fans of the original coin. Google him, here's a tweet : "I'll do my best to use http://Bitcoin.com to educate the world about how Bitcoin Core is no longer the Bitcoin that was described on the original http://Bitcoin.org website or in the Satoshi White paper. #BitcoinCash is that Bitcoin." Bitcoin.com is not the original bitcoin site, that's bitcoin.org - Roger is a marketer, while the typical bitcoin propagators are mostly coders and nerds, dreamers. I am a marketer (maybe it takes one to know one), he's also a celebrity, which makes it real simple. Marketing is a bit like the military, from the strategic angle. It's important to launch surprise attacks, which is not intuitive to most people who will never realize what hit them. So the answer is NO, of course Roger Ver hasn't even tried - that wouldn't be ethical, and no he couldn't have had so much influence. Everything is coincidence, everything that says it isn't must be a conspiracy theory.
Convenient that you only screen capped HALF of the article. Now, go back to the article and read the second half, probably reread it like 3 times as it seems your slow to comprehend and quick to jump to conclusions.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-evening-update-bull-flag-fractals-everywhere
Oh the second half that is convenient
So do you only read the first half of something important? Or do you read up to the point that you are happy and then stop? Because the screenshot you posted was only half of the article, the other half said we could also be in for a correction, lets wait and see what happens over night
I feel your pain man!
One day we are going to the moon: $23K and 24 hours later $11K, but hey it's a healthy correction. :)
Oh well, I should have read the Legal Mumbo Jumbo part!
No, you should have read all the way to the end of the article where he said an alternate path could be a bearish correction and let’s wait to see overnight.
You should get out of investing if you can’t simply read an entire 1 minute blog post thoroughly
Not easy with everybody, my friend !!!
@haejin can you address the potential H&S fractal?
As I said; H&S
Regarding volume:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal
I'm with u. It's playing out pretty too well, haha.. BUT altcoins are showing some freaking BULLISH actions so BTC might just dip little bit down and after that explode way past bigger LS.
Update; there went the right shoulder possibility! We going UP soon!
I was thinking that's no longer relevant after we dropped straight past the right shoulder ?
This is where we sit at time of writing:
I added some more annotations to try and explain the patterns and calculations better.
I am looking for a bounce either here (at ~12k), or as @haejin points out, ~11k where there is more historical support.
Once that happens, I'd be looking for decreasing volume with increasing price to ~17k. Then increasing volume as price starts to decline again. If this happens, we are going to 6 - 7k where there is historical support.
If this plays out, the right shoulder will be known as a "dead cat bounce", and this will become a major correction.
I'm not sure how likely all of this is, but with the increase in dumb money and the added ability for wall st to short, this is starting to look more and more like a probability than a possibility.
Im looking forward to Haejin's take on this.
A wider view of why 6-7k:
Oh ! So you mean the right shoulder is yet to come ? Whoa yeah I'm all for it :))
We just have to be aware, and waiting for it... haejin was not the only one to predict 11k, I read another analysis coming to the same conclusion for general symmetry reasons rather than h-a-s. You gotta be cool on Wall Street¸¸.•¨•♫♪ ;))
TY for making me aware.
Yes, exactly.
Haejin mentioned the potential for the smaller H&S (the one in yellow above) yesterday, and as soon as he said that, it become clear to me there was a bigger H&S (the one in green above), which is a fractal, potentially in play.
It's always better to be prepared with potential outcomes than to have them sprung on you without knowing how to react.
Good luck!
I have trouble identifying these structures because my screen is so tiny, it all looks rather blocky... I'm now running two browsers so i can use two tradingview accounts, one with a 15 minute and one with a daily/4h hour scale, that works way better than switching time scale all the time... still, the HS scenario seems to be less likely now because of the lack of volume in the center - so maybe we can relax... keep up the good work, we'll soon have a team of experts ;))
Here's a simple Fibonacci application, and it shows that the deepest dip (at Kraken) went right to the .0618, which makes it a perfect moderate retracement so far.
Although @haejin may be correct that this wont end up forming a H&S, I believe he was incorrect about the H&S volume:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal
This is with the caveat that Haejin has much more experience than I do, so he may disagree with this assessment. I guess only time will tell, but it's good to have it in our bag if we need it.
Shorting is not yet available on the futures contracts
I thought it was, but only with significant margin: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/interactive-brokers-says-its-will-now-accept-bets-that-bitcoin-will-tumble-2017-12-13
If you have different info I'd love to see it.
Either way, as @haejin pointed out, it's somewhat irrelevant because these things often become post hoc justifications for price.
I think it's worth understanding the implication of shorting in the market though, since in the past, it was a very one sided market.
Also: https://www.ft.com/content/a72a61dc-e6f2-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec
H&S is a pattern that should only be watched for once it's almost complete. ( in forming)
From what I read you shouldn't try to predict it....just maybe be aware of it once it's almost complete.
And never ever make decisions based on it until it has broken the neck line.
I'm still new to TA....but that is what written everywhere about H&S.
Any "forward discernment" you do alleviates fomo or fud. I would say it's wise to identify as many potential patterns so that you can adapt your strategy once more data becomes available.
I first mentioned this larger H&S yesterday when Haejin identified the potential for the smaller H&S. Once we had confirmation that the smaller H&S broke down, this larger H&S became more probable. (See my comments here on a previous post of haejin's)
And now that it has bounced from the smaller H&S retracement projection -- which also happens to be the neckline for the larger H&S -- I think it becomes even more probable.
I will be keeping a close eye on volume as price approaches 16k-17k. If there is a decrease in volume as price goes higher, that is another signal that we could be in for a rough ride.
With that said, nothing is 100%, and when more data becomes available, we will get a clearer picture of the possibilities and probabilities.
Thanks for your input. I agree 100% with that.
All we can do is keep a close eye on the right shoulder. If it hits the peak and then starts going down again it becomes the most probable outcome, right? After it breaks the neckline it's time to get out of the market and be ready to get back in @ 6-7K?
What's your opinion on altcoins? There is no way you can make profit on alts while BTC is going down? Maybe there is a way to make more BTC out of altcoins trading...but fiat profit is going down no matter what...right?
The way I understand h&s is that we should see an increase in volume when declining from the right shoulder. That would be a warning sign this is a legitimate h&s.
In @haejin's latest video he said the volume was not indicitive of a h&s, but according to http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal it's exactly what you should expect.
Again, @haejin has way more experience than I do, so sometimes "intuition" plays a role in TA. He's been quite good with that in the past.
We all need to help @haejin!
Please consider adding STEEM POWER to your account. It will stop downvoters from making his content invisible.
It is very quick Just read this blog.
https://steemit.com/steem/@yogi.artist/the-simple-guide-to-converting-your-steem-into-steem-power-new-user-power-up-walkthrough
Steemit is a community and we all must pitch in to help our friend @haejin!
Also you can lease delegated sp - much better bang for your buck if you are new and/or broke.
Minnow tip - Lease Delegated SP ASAP Now is a Good Time Since STEEM is on Sale!
And keep your power up too:
What is Your Steemit Voting Power and Why Does it Matter?
And here are random tips to do better here in general when you are new"
Make Money Blogging on Steemit Top Tips and Checklist for Better Results!!
This is exactly what should be done instead of beer tips. Excellent recommendation @fitinfun
Spread the word everybody. @haejin had a target for $14 STEEM. So not only this would help @haejin it would also help your own selves too.
If you can get yourself to 500 sp - it makes a big difference here. A lot of new people are here and may be successful in other places. But steemit is different and each minnow has to grow over time.
For example - buying a huge amount of sp and plunging in when you are not familiar with the place is a bad move. Stay kind of small to get used to the tricks here. But all of the tiny minnows getting to 500-5000 or so would make a good difference for all.
Wishing everyone the best of luck and don't give up.
I'm trying to unlock the voting slider so I can let my VP go above 20%
The waiting part is kind of annoying but I'm not too confident in buying 300SP with my other cryptos. I'm going to earn my SP just like my Reputation.
Good luck to you too:-)
Let us make the reward pool our Bitch: Because lazize faire
lol - good one. I just wrote a post about using @steemdunk for your post voting. It gives you the slider :)
https://steemit.com/curation/@fitinfun/minnow-tip-steemdunk-post-upvoting-save-time-increase-rewards
Thanks for this tip. I did not even knew about leasing till now!
It's worth it when you are new for sure :)
Hahaha....it's like that head is just hilarious added to anything....new contest. Winner get's 2 STEEM.....let's see your best Haejin's head picture! And YES, I'm picking the winner.....guess I'll pay ya too...I made this one a while back for a milestone post....only one comment on it, damn!
It is a fun game love your poster!
I CANNOT WAIT to see what bernie puts it on!
Yes, we await B.S. !
Lift @haejin! LIFTTTT!
Haha. Have you powered up yet? I will be doing it tomorrow. Let me know if you need any advice on how to do it :)
I am curious, what is powering up. I'm following you now.
yes please I do need help. I have some steem and I can buy more. How do I lease SP?
Whats the best way to get the most bang for my buck? What I did last time was I just bought steem and converted it to steempower on the or something like that lol. You can check my wallet out and see my money. Can you tell me the best way to get the most bang for my buck? Also, @vimukthi usually knows alot about steem... can you pitch in here too brotha
https://steemit.com/steemit/@fitinfun/minnow-tip-lease-delegated-sp-asap-now-is-a-good-time-since-steem-is-on-sale
Agreed! Let's all do our part. We are stronger together.
Thanks for the support. I will be powering up tomorrow. Let me know if you need any help!
Are you saying the video is not visible because a bunch of asshats voted down his posts?
Screw that, who has time to fight such nonsense? I see this as a problem with Steem not haejin.
Is that the purpose of this forum? To see who is the most popular? And when you are not the most popular you run around and sling mud at those who are?
If so, Steem really needs to rethink the entire premise of this format.
I totally agree - (not sure about the video, I also remember a video not uploading before) no real need for a video in this case as it's not really Elliott Wave scenario, it's a crashy retracement - you will always find disgruntled people on social, it's human nature.
To ignore human nature in ones constructs is criminal-level SJW idiocy.
Bernie Sanders here is making steemit feel the burn of its own underthinking attitude.
No....the video just isn't working. He will fix it.
Had hoped to find it on youtube but the next update will probably be more enlightening. I'm all excited about the upcoming buying opportunity and I cannot resist seeing the comical side of this entire situation. Sorry about that, it's just the way I tick ;)
No need to panic, all ships have the built-in capacity to sink more than 10.000 meters ! Said the captain of the Titanic upon hitting the iceberg - "holes in a ship's body are merely a healthy correction of the builder's oversights !" While the band was playing in back.
But seriously, though nobody had expected this before Christmas, the market was overbought and by imbeciles at that, who are now all out investing in designer candles at the shopping mall...
It's clearing the decks so it won't have to happen in 2018, and we're all (none) the wiser.
Roger Ver's skilfully executed Bitcoin Cash marketing presented us with a nice end-of-year scare, and we all know it was worth it, so that we now have another altcoin that can do stuff marginally better and cheaper...
Who wouldn't pay a lot of money for that, see the entire crypto market decline and sacrifice the chance of seeing their earnings increase by another 20% this year?
Thank you, Roger, for being an essential Guru since Mt Gox !
In another vein, I was cautious enough to "panic-sell" at 17.500 and so I'm looking forward to buying in at 8500 if I get the chance ;))
Drops getting close to 11k
You are a super hero to all of us :)
Just saw this, you're in the running for best haejin head!
You were right on the money with this analysis, well done and thanks. Upped and resteemed.
great stuff keep up the good work!
not gonna lie im a bit scared
How about an update on BTG -
Here is an interesting scenario
would be nice