RE: Bitcoin Futures is the Next Phase of Attack Against Cryptos
Just remember It's a 'cash settled' contract. And I'm not paranoid, this is exactly what they've been doing in the precious metals markets for over a decade.
I understand that this will bring 'legitimate' money into the futures market that is not allowed to now and that will likely assist a big move up probably towards Clif High's numbers of $13800 or so, but after that the futures market becomes the market and the underlying no longer matters.
This is true in gold, silver, oil, corn, soybeans etc. But, unlike those markets, the CME Group isn't even trying to hide the fact that they want control of it because they are going to offer futures without having a stake in the underlying.
No one has to put up bitcoins to take the short side. Therefore this isn't a real futures market but rather a casino of synthetic dollar-denominated shorts against bitcoin.
Understood. Far from perfect end state. Cash settled sets up space for manipulation.
But this is also a step to bringing "legitimate" money in, which as you admit is likely to cause a decent price increase.
My assumption is that as BTC becomes more mainstream, and the big pools are allowed to buy in with the underlying asset directly, then the futures market is going to have a challenge in trying to limit the price increase.
There will enough momentum in some of the buying and price increase for underlying BTC that futures won't be able to control. Like a tidal wave. The natural power will be overwhelming.
I could be wrong. Just sharing an opinion.
And so can I. I hope that you're right Dave. What I really hope is that the crypto-market sees this for what it is and builds a true futures market, settled in the underlying asset, for all cryptos, neatly bypassing these guys.
There's tremendous money sitting on the sidelines looking for a legal way to get into this space...on that we agree. And in the first phase of it building a legal framework is absolutely necessary to let that money in.
The Russians are going about it the right way. We are still dragging our feet and only putting in place those things that attempt to gain control. This is why the Segwit2x fight in Bitcoin is so interesting.
Original vision vs. access to easier growth but more control lies at the heart of it.