Bitcoin neural network analysis week 14/2019: Crypto-Spring
Analysis of past week:
The network did predict a bumpy ride up to the 4200$ levels and we are still on track towards this goal. The network expected to finish lower this week and the strategy was therefore suboptimal.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 15214.83$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 4022.17$ (down 0.0%)
Network strategy: 4322.55$ (up 0.5%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since the documented time has been a bear market. The neural network has gotten some edge above holding bitcoin.
Forecast:
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Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network still expects another week of gains, but then sees another severe pullback. This is consistent with last weeks predictions, only becoming a bit more optimistic and canceling the intermediate drop. I am personally not convinces we will see such a strong move downwards since the climate in crypto has changed a lot over the past few months. But pullbacks happen and it seems that the network wants to wait out such a correction before turning more bullish.
The gains expected by the network are indecisive. For the coming week I am selecting to hold bitcoin over fiat.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!
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