Can you really see a split happening though? The carnage and most importantly loss of trust this would cause in main street could be CATASTROPHIC.

This is why we've seen the drop we have seen in crypto prices. The market is pricing in this risk. But also notice that it hasn't been a firesale? This is just healthy pre-event pricing in of risk. If you can identify where the biggest mismatch with reality occurs, then you will make lots of money trading it once things settle down.

Take a look at my look at market psychology around SegWit.