Why Bitcoin won't reach $1 million (but is still a good investment).
It has become popular for bloggers and analysts to peer into a crystal ball and come up with long term predictions for the price of Bitcoin, and boy are those figures all over the place. I have heard all sort of numbers bandied around from 'Bitcoin has peaked' (always popular) to 'Bitcoin will be worth $1 million after 2030 and we'll all be rich' (another favorite). Of course since what is defined as 'long term' is pretty far in the future, anything is possible, which makes predictions rather easy. Personally I'll try to come up with a figure bearing a decent probability of being reached in the coming decade.
A good way to proceed is to determine the absolute worst case scenario and the very best case scenario possible, then see between those numbers what is the most probable figure.
So what's the worts case scenario?
That one is easy: no growth! The worst that could realistically happen is that Bitcoin value never gets higher than $3000.
And now for the best case scenario?
That one is a bit harder as we have to look at established currencies and stores of value for clues. The USD M1 money supply stand at around $3.5 trillions while the total capitalization of gold is around $7 trillions. Let's assume that when fully established Bitcoin can reach the same ballpark and estimate the total market cap at $5 trillions, which is about 100 times its current market cap of $50 billions, or a Bitcoin value of $300,000.
And now what is realistic?
So we have a range from $3000 to $300,000. If we consider growth to be exponential like it has been up to now and take the midpoint I would set a target at around $30,000 per Bitcoin for the 2020 to 2025 time period.
This would make Bitcoin an investment with the potential to multiply its value by 10 in less than 10 years. Holding 1 BTC won't allow you to buy a villa or a yacht, but it could buy you a nice driverless car by the time those hit the market.
image creative Commons by by investmentzen
My belief, based on nothing at all, is that Bitcoin will plateau around $100k. There are simply too many other superior technologies being brought to market (Bitshares and Steem to name two). But it will take a decade or two for the masses to figure this out. Bitcoin will become a lot like gold, a premium store of value.
Bitcoin could reach $100.000 but it will either take a long time or a very big bubble.
I think this fall we are going to see Bitcoin absorb an enormous amount of fiat wealth and perhaps a bubble to $50k or higher. There is momentum grown and new markets in Asia are starting to get into crypto in a big way. In the fiat world there is nothing left for wealth preservation - gold/silver are horribly manipulated, equities are so risky as to be stupid, debt (bonds, etc.) costs money to hold and because the gov is printing money like it going out of style holding cash just erodes your wealth. There are trillions of dollars of fiat wealth looking for a secure growth vehicle. Bitcoin has that in spades.
Indeed that is where I see the most value for Bitcoin, as a store of value protected from inflation. That is why I considered the market cap of gold as very significant because it fulfills the same role in the physical world. I expect it will take a very long time for Bitcoin to catch up if it ever does though.
it depends on the demand of it goes main stream currently it is just a niche product bit coin only 11 million whorld population 7 billion
check out my thoughts what about bit club? is it agent ponzi
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There could be the effect of a bubble, so a peak to $1,000,000 at some point is not impossible. However, I expect extreme peaks to be less and less with every price increase.
For my exponential price projections, see: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@wekkel/bitcoin-in-a-bubble-no-way
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who knows the price in 10 years many factors will happen government controls different things and so its too hard to call today but it will not be $0 for sure check out my story
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@newmarket65/is-cryptocurrency-your-get-rich-quick-scheme
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