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RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Don't Confuse the Trees for the Forest
Ask yourself how likely it is that new demand will enter the picture - whether that be from individuals in developing nations as is often possited as a growth driver, or the potential for 'institutional money'. If you think there will be buyers to outstrip suppy then the price will increase. If not.....
Don't forget that available supply also matters. The vast majority of supply is held by just a few individuals, and the way they decide to sell or hold effectively determines the available supply. If they hoard, prices rise. If they dump, prices fall.
Until they have unloaded a lot more of their stakes, we would need to see orders of magnitude of shifts in demand to offset the whales' potential for supply manipulation.