Nice thoughts! About the Bitfinex Tether incident: I even read today on 3 different sources that it is even not approved that bitfinex was subpoenaed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission! Those 3 sources just stated bitfinex was allegedly subpoenaed by the CFTC. We will know for sure in the near future.
See that is the problem exactly, so much of what is going on is based on rumor. But all of it affects the price of Bitcoin negatively.