I should know better than to speculate on the price of cryptocurrencies....

I should know better than to speculate in the price of anything. Not so long ago I wrote a post that suggested price of Ether would cut half, stay low for a while, and then finally rebound and shoot skyward. Well, that didn't quite happen!

I'm still somewhat skeptical about the status of Bitcoin as the lead cryptocurrency. It was good, it was the best, but I don't think that will be true in the future. However, I should refrain from making price predictions as I am surely going to be wrong.

Q3 and Q4 rallies

Despite what I first thought the price of Ether rallied well in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. I think Ethereum is better technology and should be better placed to outperform Bitcoin in 2018. That’s my opinion but the market can surely keep disagreeing with me. There is perhaps greater mass adoption of Bitcoin since it is more famous. I want to say that eventually the price of Ether will start to gain ground on Bitcoin.

Litecoin, Dash, and Monero have also rallied well this quarter and gained a lot of attention for being solid alternatives to Bitcoin. We could argue that Litecoin did well since it has long been considered a ‘silver’ to Bitcoin’s ‘gold’ and the latter coins well since they are adding extra privacy mechanisms. However, I'm not sure if any of that matters....

Gambling

This is a buy-anything-bullmarket. It might as well be gambling as everything is going up. I feel like I can't offer a reasonable opinion on price, at least not as well I could on technological feasibility.

Returns in 2018

One of the biggest factors to Bitcoin’s recent success is that some people have made outstanding returns in the past. Some folks have become multi-millionaires, while some others have "merely" done well. That said, 10x return is normally fantastic, nevermind 100x or even 1000x.

However, I still struggle to see Bitcoin doing another 1000x or even 100x. I could at least see it doing 10x, but I wonder whether the alt-coins are better placed to provide such crazy returns.

I ask myself what seems more likely: Bitcoin going from 20k to 200k, or an altcoin going from $3 to $30? It is my naive opinion that the latter is more likely.

I'm fully prepared to be wrong here since I wasn't even close with my thinking a few months ago!

Disclaimer: this is not investment advice.
Disclaimer: this is my personal opinion and not that of any employer.