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RE: What will happen to BITCOIN if this happens?
"A news or an event or a reason of some type shall arrive to justify the forecast". What if forecast is wrong?
"A news or an event or a reason of some type shall arrive to justify the forecast". What if forecast is wrong?
Then it's wrong. And I have been wrong. I have not a crystal ball. But I did correctly call for the Wave III top and now the Wave IV bottom approaching. I could be wrong, yes. But IF that purple Wave V completes, I'll be 100% OUT of CRYPTOS and money in the BANK and not exchanges. In fact, I'll do this way ahead of the Wave V (purple) topping. For me, Wave five's are always profit taking waves.
That's the difficulty. Getting off the exchange into fiat bank account without incurring capital gains tax liabilities.
Give to Caesar what is Caesar's.....but I say Caesar take too much!
I am not trying to avoid the tax, but it's only liable when I withdraw.
Ceasars always do ;)
If you are wrong, we might be just behind the peak of wave V. Or peak of wave V, which you drew is in fact peak of wave 3. Look at the years 2008-2013. Candles in that period are so small, you can't even see them. Does it mean that in the early days there were no significant ups and downs? Of course there were (you can see them looking at logarithmic chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w61h2hLH/) But from 2017 perspective and in the proportional scale chart they are invisible. And you do not consider them when you label the chart. If Bitcoin survives next 10 years, than 3000-5000& fluctuations may seem invisible and insignificant.
It is easy to explain past price fluctuations with some events, that have already happened and it is easy to label the historical chart, because in fact when the realty does not fit the EW theory, you adjust your image of reality (in fact you should go find or develop a better theory because the one you are using is falsified). But lets suppose the EW theory is right. When you can's see the future part of the chart it is even harder to put the labels and tell which wave we are surfing. So as a trading tool EWT is OK, but I doubt its prophetic qualities. I know there is quite high possibility of going back to 3000$. Check this this analysis: https://steemit.com/dtube/@quickfingersluc/k0nozzc1. Its is not so classic TA, but this guy has extremely efficient trading method (approximately 95% of his trades is profitable and he earns huge percentages).
Main present function of Bitcoin (store of value) and the fact that Bitcoin is resistant to centralized manipulation will make this cryptocurrency stay for a while. I am thinking about 1-2 year perspective. That is my guess. There is very little risk of total hack or sth which could drag the value close to zero. Some brilliant altcoins may pop up but wider adoption takes time. How long has it taken ethereum to get close to bitcon? Years. All altcoins at the beginning are just speculative assets. Bitcoin have this huge advantage of 10 years of history and reliability. That is just priceless.
great analysis, thanks
I think I understand you. But I don't agree. My rate is about 88%; so @quickfingersluc seems to have a 7% edge. However, that is irrelevant. What I'm focusing on are the EW counts. And yes, much of it depends on my perception, emotional maturity and the level of failure experiences. Failures are better teachers than successes and I'm certain @quickfingersluc won't disagree as I"m sure at 95% success rate he must have enormous tonnages of it from which he he learned.
So, my EW counts are mine and are rooted in my experience, skill, perceptions and so let's see how it pans out. Also, I put my money where my mouth is in that I have much skin in the game.
His method it tottaly different than your. He is reactive position trader. He do not use EWT, any indicators but volume (this is not naked trading too). This sound weird, but his method is crazy simple and efficient. Check it out, because your classic method is predictive and his is reactive.
With the codes of common courtesy you should not recommend a seasoned analyst and trader anyone else
Haejin said once that if I knew a method more effectiove than I should have shared.
Also, I don't charge a dime for my analysis. I intentionally keep it free and provide on demand analysis to anyone who needs it. It's my way of giving back because I have plenty and feel my tonnages of failure lessons can perhaps help others. As I've said on my blog posts, I'm here only to help and do no harm.
Its actually understood that you want to give something back.
I hope people ilke this dont exhaust your patience soon. I dont know about others but I am learning a lot form you.
Thankyou @haejin.
Here is the Log Scale Chart, with same projection; thus not ignoring any peaks from the genesis stage of Bitcoin:
This looks interesting. Looks like wave V is in its early stage, comparing to I and III.
Not yet for Wave V. Wave IV needs to finish and is in session now.
Oh, wave (V), It's in late stage. So wave v of (v) shall start after this correction finishes.
Yes, I was refering to the chart above.
Alt-Coins are not speculative. Maybe you haven't really done any in depth research in crypto space. If you do you'll realize that in few years (given that USD stays relatively stable) BTC will worth less than $1000. Even BCH is a better long term hold.
Try researching Dash, MaidSafe, NEM, NEO and you'll realize BTC isn't a good bet. Blockchain is a tech; not a gold replacement. BTC is like Netscape, Nokia, Yahoo! Myspace. It is too old and has too many problems and ZERO governance to solve them.
I did my research.
Can you name any working dAPPS based on NEO or NEM, that have thousands of users?
Have you ever payed for sth with DASH? Have you ever transfered some money to your friend using DASH? I guess if it is a currency, this is its main purpose. If you havent then DASH is just trading speculative instrument.
Alts you mentioned, are at the moment speculative, trading assets, which means they have not developed any real life functionality yet. Plus they are much less reliable than Bitcoin (shorter history) and they are mach more volatile.
Of course you can earn 1000% in a year on them, when you are a trader, but this in not the case.
Are you kidding me! NEO is only starting and NEM is the #2 crypto in Japan. I've been using Dash and I've never used BTC for anything other than trading pairs.
BTC had negative merchant adoption for the year while Dash is growing super fast. https://discoverdash.com/ They are getting about a dozen new businesses every week.
BTC has higher than VISA Tx fees. Transaction times can even take days while Dash (and PIVX) offer 1.3 second transactions for almost 1/100th the cost. BTC has ZERO governance while many coins have built in governance structure. BTC community is toxic, full of censorship and doesn't even stick to its promises. BTC has no privacy functions. SegWit can compromise security and has done little to solve the scaling issue. Year 2017 had negative BTC merchant adoption which had NEVER occurred in any popular crypto.
BTC has no solid future roadmap. It has no Ease of use features such as user names. All these problems have already been solved by other coins and anything BTC can do, Alt can do better.
This is the objective reality of BTC. Either you weren't aware of the facts or you are just a retard. I'm just stating the facts.
I am a retard.
You are agressive and subjective. Go discuss with yourself.
Nice I won.
To spice things up can I dare you to lockup your BTC (at least 50% of your portfolio) for 3 years.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3yoa47/you_can_now_create_op_hodl_address_to_lock_your/
Buy in a dip and lock it for 3 years. I dare you. I don't even think you have guts to do this. If so upload a proof that you locked up a significant portion of your cryptos for 3 years.
If you can't do this it means you don't trust BTC as much as you claim. Personally I've never held BTC (except in tradings for brief periods of time) and I will never hold or invest in it.
I mine Dash, ETH and XMR(with XDN merged mining) on my laptop.
How much are you able to mine?
how long do you think this correction will last ?
thx
NO Telling. But it's not painful at all if you're pretty much out and on the side lines waiting.
im out just like you are ...just messed up a few times playing bounces ...but done and waiting for signal of reversal if it ever comes...
thanks for all the great post and videos ..
haejin
if Russia is ok with crypto then we might see a reversal ..
https://www.coindesk.com/russian-government-minister-impossible-ignore-cryptocurrencies/
market bouncing nicely off the russia news
I believe these events follow the waves and not the reverse. That isn't arrogance but another way of saying that a news or event shall arrive to justify the forecast.
Which exchanges allow you to get into USD after selling cryptos?
Bitfinex
I think many do...but QuadrigaCX is one. Probably more useful for Canadians like me who will want to get into Canadian $ though. Not many cryptos available, just BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH. On the plus side they seem very reliable, don't really get some of the horror stories about problems withdrawing, whether crypto or fiat.