BTC Update 3-4-18: To Twist or not to Twist?
Price: ~ $11,300
24HR:
After finding a bounce on the daily Tenkan, BTC has been surging its way back to the Daily Kijun; with price currently getting stopped & just under the Kijun & the 1.618 Fib. If price is able to conquer the Kijun this time around, price is also under the Bearish Kumo Twist.
Let’s talk about what a Kumo Twist is, means, and deeper dive into the components of the Ichimoku Cloud. “Span A” is the green line of the cloud and represents the Tenkan + Kijun / 2, essentially the average between the two. “Span B” is the red line of the cloud and represents the highest high in X periods & lowest low in X periods / 2, X in crypto settings is 120, and finally is referred to as the equilibrium in cloud price. Like all components of the cloud, these spans represent hard resistance or support levels.
Now that price is back below the Bearish Kumo Twist, price will need a strong push to get past it. If price is able break past the Twist, this will be a big win for the Bulls, but BTC is not out of the woods yet. If price struggles getting past the Twist or back into the daily cloud, the Tenkan & 125 EMA are in line for retests.
For full on Bullish confirmation, the following scenarios still need to occur with price:
• Price is above Cloud
• Retest of Cloud support
• Tenkan-Kijun cross with Tenkan above Kijun
• Bullish Kumo Twist
As you can see above, price is close to achieving the first, but still a ways from achieving the latter. Meaning even if price is able to break through the twist, retests of the $10K’s are not out of question between now & end of March based off future cloud projections.
12HR:
Let the 12HR cloud be a guide to what I’m alluding to above. Prior to BTC’s entry into the 12HR cloud a few weeks ago, I mentioned more than once to be aware of potential pullback, while entering the 12HR cloud. Notice on first attempt into the cloud there was a small pullback, and then price was able to get into the cloud, followed by an extended pullback along cloud support. This is the type of scenario I’m preparing for BTC on the daily. Finally, notice how price follows along Span A, as mentioned above, every part of the cloud is support or resistance.
As for current price action, notice that price is just under the 12HR cloud resistance, price will need a strong surge to get past this area & likely to start encountering harder resistance around the 1st cloud cliff in the high $12K’s (daily cloud also in agreement). If price is unable to break through the cloud, the Tenkan & bottom of cloud will be next areas of support.
EMA Follow-Up:
Below are the continuation scenarios I’ve been following for BTC. In 2013, the 25 EMA (fastest) crossed with the 100 EMA (medium) with price bouncing on the 300 EMA, eventually re-crossing leading to bullish continuation. In 2014, the 25 EMA & 100 EMA crossed, but the 25 EMA also crossed with the other EMA’s, eventually leading to bearish continuation.
Since the last update, price has surged its way back over the 100 EMA with the 25 EMA continuing to curl up. BTC continues to exhibit more tendencies to 2013 at the moment, a re-cross of the 25 & 100 EMA would begin to confirm as much. However, also notice in 2013, there was one last pullback to the 300 EMA before liftoff. While now it may seem unlikely for BTC to pullback that far, it’s worth storing in the back of memory.
Prognosis:
BTC continues to climb its way back up and is at a decisive moment. A break through the Bearish Kumo Twist likely gives BTC enough momentum to begin challenging the low teen’s ($12-14K) again. However there are strong resistances in this region that will likely begin to give price trouble without a strong surge through them. In the event that Bulls stumble & need refueling 125 EMA, Daily Tenkan, and bottom of 12HR cloud offer support in low $10K’s.
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