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RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Upate: Probability vs Certainty
Thanks man. I need more feedback from people. You are correct it has retraced 70% at $5900 but this bull run started in Sep 2015. So I would assume a minimum of 78.6% is quite probable which could be completed by a downward wave C. Again in 2014 we had close 88% retracement. many has marked the whole ABC correction as shown below- which I believe is flawed for the reasons-
- Since A is 5 wave (5-3-5 Zigazag) C often same length as A which is not even close.
- C usually ends beyond A not the case again.
- when you look at sub-waves of Wave B which in itself can be flat or zigzag in either cases sub wave c << subwave a. which again violation of Elliot wave principles.
- last but not the least Wave C as shown below if you look very carefully impulse subwave 3 is the shortest one which again clear violation of Elliott wave principles.
So when current assumptions are wrong it makes my case that stronger. I just want to warn people so they can collect their profit ( whatever they get at B) on time instead of waiting and losing it all.
Yeah you bring up a good point...this is the count that i came up with...this wasn't posted by me, but i came up with this a long time ago and saw this on twitter..if you notice, the last thrust up last year was only a 3 wave format...IMHO.....just more food for thought...but your post is definately something to keep in the back of our minds
This post was by a.shevelev002 on trading view