Why I'm Negative on Bitcoin

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Hello Everyone,

Quick note before the description (more like script – I wrote this before making the video). I will start responding to all RELEVANT comments on Steemit, so if you want to interact with me feel free to post in the comment section below. Thanks for being a supportive community.

Description:

Today we’re going to talk about the reasons I invest and am involved with Bitcoin. You all have made clear to me just how depressing I can be and how you can slaughter people with the truth, so let’s take a step back and talk about why I am even a part of this Bitcoin movement despite all my negativity. First and foremost, I recommend everyone check out the talks done by Andreas Antonopoulos – especially his meeting with the Canadian Senate a few years back. He’s the king of pro-Bitcoin arguments.

When I first got into Bitcoin, I read and read and read like so many people do when they first learn about this exciting new technology. While this provided me the education required to understand and discuss Bitcoin, it also led my mind down a one-way path. If you listen to Andreas and other pro-Bitcoin opinion leaders, it is hard to imagine a world where Bitcoin doesn’t become adopted as the world currency – even if it doesn’t replace fiat, it would be such an attractive alternative that anyone could use it.

The reality is, Bitcoin is a long way off from what is envisioned for it. The technology is not ready for the level of eyeballs on it as is, and the majority of those eyeballs aren’t even using Bitcoin. We’ve hardly seen anything yet in terms of regulations and laws. We don’t know how businesses will respond once Bitcoin becomes a more tangible threat (right now it’s esoteric in nature e.g: Paypal average 21m transactions/day vs. Bitcoin's 350k). Governments are continuing to work on state-backed cryptocurrencies which will operate much faster than Bitcoin due to their centralization.

These uncertainties lead to the negativity you see in my videos – because I must ground price with reality. The nature of new technologies is that people’s visions often accelerate far beyond where reality is, or accelerate the timeline by which such visions will be achieved. This is what caused the dot-com bubble – people saw the possibilities, but a tad too soon. Similar trends have occurred recently, where people have jumped into AI and IoT over the past decade, yet it is taking far longer than imagined for these incredible innovations to take off. How long will it take before the world is filled with level 5 autonomous vehicles? I’ve seen estimates vary from 10 years to 100.

The point is, we’ve got a long way to go. My role as an influencer, which I have somehow become, is not to talk about what Bitcoin can do. There are hundreds of reliable sources that can provide you with that information. It’s not to sell you a pipeline dream or reinforce the opinions you already have. It is to challenge your assumptions and force you to think critically about this asset that you have placed your hard earned money into. It’s to force you to take a step back and think about other ways in which this can play out.

One of the first lessons students must learn about investing in stocks is that all blue chips will sound like phenomenal companies to invest in. Whether it is Amazon, Netflix, Disney, or Coca Cola, it’s hard to argue against these companies as brands. The analogy I provide students is that you must think about investing just like you would shopping for a new car. You want a certain set of features – maybe you prioritize mileage, or aesthetics, or how fast it can clock from 0 – 60mph.

If you hand that list of features to a sales rep, he’ll find you the perfect match easily. It's not difficult for him to find because your list missed one criterion: Price. Do you pay sticker price for a car? Don’t be like Mrs. Landingham. Always question price and valuation – my content is designed to force you to think about it critically, because otherwise it is easy to get wrapped up in what Bitcoin can do.

I like Bitcoin because it will eventually force existing financial institutions to get their stuff together as Bitcoin improves and more people utilize it. I like Bitcoin because it enables all sorts of interesting applications that go beyond peer to peer payments. I like Bitcoin because it provides one the option to exist outside of a system where monetary policy has reached the edges of what society is willing to accept. I like Bitcoin because the community has kept it alive throughout all these years to pursue ideals that cannot be pursued through traditional, corporate means.

However, my content isn't about any of that even if it does influence it. My channel is centered on investing, trading, speculation, and the emotions of the market. It’s a separate world from the technology and ideals of Bitcoin. You’ll notice that Andreas doesn’t delve into price often, because that is neither his expertise nor his interest. The same is true for Vitalik Buterin, who has sold tons of Ether at low prices to raise capital for the Ethereum Foundation. They are focused on how to change the world – not how to make money.

There are two separate worlds for cryptocurrencies – the world of investing and the world of providing solutions. If you cannot distinguish between these two worlds, you risk being blinded by your ideologies and risk your own financial future. Be cautious of that and you will be a successful investor. Thanks for watching / reading everyone.

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Great video, I agree with pretty much everything what you have mentioned there. While I am betting on Bitcoin to be in a bubble with caution, first of all, it is really hard to speculate on this since there is way too less precise measurement tools based on economic indicators to tell it for sure. I like your Bitcoin vs Visa analogy, in the same time, for instance, I analyze network affects of Bitcoin and that analysis tells another story. I also think that although there will be dips and corrections, this bubble is not yet to explode. This time Wall Street will make this real fucking big and will blow up it together with the stock market and other bubbles Western economies are in at the moment. That's what they need to become even richer, they are the only ones who benefit in a long-run of the way our economies are set up. It feels like we are sort of in the end of 2006 when it was clear that doesn't make any sense anymore, but the party was only around midnight at that point and the strong liquor was yet to be served for real. Anyways, I think it is always smart to hedge your positions, especially, at this point if you have been involved in the game just lately. I bought in when BTC was at $200 and since I really like the idea and even more so the dev team, but I'm not a particular fan of Lambos, luxury goods or any of that stuff, so I'm not going to sell my initial investment even if BTC crashes like 90%. But that's just me, and every person has it's own circumstances and risk tolerance and Iagree with you that it is foolish to fall for euphoria. I almost did that with mining and ASICs at the end of summer when only my deeper analysis revealed me how I'm going to take unnecesary amounts of risk without strong upside. So, I share your view, I just think that it is impossible to call the market tops. It could easily be $20k, $50k, $80k or even more. Diversification and hedging is the key, as you have pointed out many times before.

What I'm more than confident about is that ICOs are most definitely in the bubble because you can measure it way easier since these are essentially companies with CEO, promises, future plans, cashflows (well, maybe not yet), futire income streams etc. And there is almost nothing of it for 95%+ of those projects. It will go on for some time, but eventually the reality kicks in and people will lose shitloads of money.2 main reasons: 1) ICOs are set up to make money 2) with very rare exemptions those projects don't need their own token since it doesn't create any utility and adds unnecessary layer of friction. It's just failure waiting to happen. Sure, there will be some successful projects that will come out with actual business that solves actual real-world problems, but like at least 95% of them will just go to zero. Anyway, let them party and lose if they are too stupid and too lazy to do their research and due diligence. Not to say that I have researched every project out there, but from those ERC20 token projects I have researched and followed, OMG is probably the only one I would put my trust into, and even then I'm hedging that position since most likely they won't be able to deliver on their roadmap as expected. Those projects are heavily reliant on Ethereum updates, and those don't seem to come along as well and even more importantly- as fast as initially expected. I like OMG team though and since I lay my trust in people first, and only then in idea, I will keep a position in OMG, but it will be just 30% of what it used to be. That's my take on this. In this regard I have a question for you. It might not be highly likely scenario, but still- let's say the ICO bubble burst before Bitcoin bubble (assuming it is in a bubble) and before stock market bubble. ICOs fall on their own. In this scenario- what is your take what happens to the price of Bitcoin? I mean, I can argue for it to go both ways, would like to hear your take on this.

Speaking of Ethereum- I used to be very bullish on it but at this point I am slowly becomimg more cautious because of one important reservation I'm having (although I have a relative big position on ETH since I expect for the price to rise in a short to mid term). And that is Solidity, which seems to be pretty much the wrong choice for what Ethereum is supposed to be and supposed to do. Sure, at this point they cannot change this even if they would like to, so they need to figure things out as they are, but my big reservation is what it will continue to cause problems just due to the nature of this code/language, and that can't really be avoided in any certain way. It's sort of similar as Windows and some of the issues they are having for the last 20 years and those cannot be fixed in any easy way since they are part of the very base of how Windows is set up and what it's logic is. That is my one big reservation with Ethereum in a long run and would like to hear your thoughts on this as you might have different view on this and maybe you can point out to some things I'm missing here in this regard.

Speaking of other top10 coins, I pretty much think that everything is in a bubble there. I'm positive on what Monero team is doing and the way how they have handled the issues throughout the year, so again I lay my trust in the dev team not just in the idea and I'm actually continue to slowly accumulate more Monero even at this price. Sure, IOTA has tremendous upside, but it is essentially yet in Beta mode, so huge upside comes with huge risk. Cardano looks really solid, but to invest at it at this stage seems a bit ridiculous. Although their team seems solid, idea is great, it is all pretty much on the paper as for now. I want to see more proof in a long term and what they can deliver. Charles is a brilliant mind, but he has a track record of running away from problems and starting the next big thing whenever something goes wrong. I'm optimistic but cautious at the same time. Litecoin serves a clear purpose, and that is to be a test network/ground for Bitcoin. Which is not a bad thing since it has a clear purpose that most of the projects are missing. Just I wouldn't overestimate it and that Gold/Silver analogy.. well, let's say I just don't buy it at all. Ripple is on its own realm and kinda difficult to compare it to other projects. At least, it serves a clear purpose and has a track-record even if you are not particular fan of the idea behind it. I don't invest in Ripple cause I have no interest to follow on what is going on in their community and with the tech improvements, but I don't necessarily bash it either. It serves a purpose, well, it is supposed to serve in the future, to be more precise. How many of those coins/tokens serves a purpose!? I can't comment on NEM since I don't fully grasp that project and haven't done my homework, but as far as the rest of the projects go, as far as I'm concerned BCash is doomed to fail, and for me it is not a question of if but rather when. Not saying you can't make money in a short term with trading it, but in a long run I believe it just doesn't stand much of a a chance. Dash has some major flaws and I'm a bit surprised that the market doesn't see those. I have done my homework on this one quite a long time ago and still I don't see much of the long-term potential, so I definitely see it as overbought, even more so than most of the other coins in top10-top15. BGold is not even worth to mention with its artificial imflated market cap and low development activity. EOS and Qtum- well, since I said that I lay my trust in people first and only then into the idea itself- I can't say that it is a good investment. Very risky IMHO. Depends of your risk tolerance. Stellar is interesting though. NEO- I definitely wouldn't buy it at this point.

Just to point out- I'm no expert by any means. I'm just an enthusiast of the technology, it's future applications and its potential. To some degree I have been involved in the space since the 2013 But I pretty much agree with you on the timeframe for all of this. My interest in trading comes only after all of this, although I take part in the market, analyze situations, constantly educate myself, and try to keep in mind that I might be totally off with my predictions and analasys since under no circumstances you have a full-information, besides market conditions constantly changes, so should your view.

Appreciate your content and I feel that we share a similar view on a lot of things that is going on the space.

Thanks for that. I've read every single word.

Webmora,

On the topic of ICOs, I discuss that in a previous article I've written as a catalyst that could cause Bitcoin to spiral: https://medium.com/@Truth_Investor/bitcoin-three-ways-the-bubble-will-pop-40678ce11698 (number two). Here's the response I gave to someone who questioned how a collapse in ICO funding could potentially cause Bitcoin to fall:

"Yes, Bitcoin is not directly affected by ICOs. However, it is correlated with Ethereum and will be dragged down if Ethereum goes down regardless of whether or not it makes sense, similar to how small caps can move down on macro news that has literally zero impact on them. Note that correlations (the statistic) increase during bear markets.

A lush ICO economy leads to extensive visibility from VCs, wealth managers, and accredited investors. They become exposed to the entire cryptocurrency scene. I work with two wealth managers who wouldn’t know a thing about Bitcoin if it wasn’t for what they heard about blockchain applications. One of them is considering buying. They are whales."

As for your thoughts on Ethereum with Solidity, I have no strong opinions as I am not technically qualified enough to comment on it specifically. I've done limited reading on the subject that illustrate the flaws you are concerned with, but the technology or underlying code has never been a concern to me with most of these cryptocurrency projects that have actually have an existing product. What I've found to be true throughout history is that solutions exist or will be made at a far faster rate than they get implemented due to the nature of bureaucracy, which gets even worse with open source projects. I know that's a general comment to your rather specific concern, but it tends to repeat enough that I apply it more as a rule of thumb. The politics of Bitcoin / Ethereum and all the other cryptocurrencies will play a far greater role in the speed of their adoption than tech will.

I appreciate reading your assessment of the top cryptocurrencies out there, as I am sure many others are as well (evident by the upvotes on the comment!). Don't undersell yourself - as mentioned in one of these responses, you could easily make content yourself (and I would recommend you give it a shot). I hope to attract more quality contributions such as this comment from you in the future as well as others. Perhaps at some point I will have a relevant amount of Steem Power to reward such contributions fiscally. But for now, thank you for taking the time to write this out and I hope you stick around.

Some good points. You should take this content and create your own post. ;)

I got to say, you could potentially be one of the most successful traders in the world. You know tech, hype, and do your homework like a boss. I agree with you for the majority of your points. Especially for the lambo part, lol.

Great video as always. Lately I see more and more people concerned about the parabolic growth of BTC. I think most of this fear is driven due to the high number (19k) in the price. Obviously the adoption does not justify the value but I don't see bitcoin the way it is today (e.g. 10min verification, high transaction fees and increase in value) to take the place of a daily used currency. However if we consider that bitcoin is a global currency and almost investors from every country are putting money into it, is this really a high price? I really want to know what you think about that.

Yes it's really still a high price. It's very easy to compare Bitcoin to everything that is bigger than it - often people are absurd with their comparisons and go as far as to compare to global money supply, global gold market cap, global equities markets, global fixed income, etc.

What you never hear from these same people is how Bitcoin is already bigger than Visa despite the fact ... wait for it... Visa handles TRILLIONS of dollars worth of transactions. It's not apples to apples for several reasons, the biggest being that Bitcoin acts as the token for these transactions meaning the value of Bitcoin comes from the value of the transactions rather than the transaction fees, but it's so many orders of magnitude behind that we can infer it shouldn't even close to this price based on being a transaction medium.

Furthermore, the digital gold argument associates Bitcoin with being a store of value. Yet if this were true, why aren't people putting 100% of their value into Bitcoin? Bitcoin has had several bubble pops throughout history, absurd falls of over 80%. The digital gold argument falls apart the moment that happens.

The best reason to justify Bitcoin's current price is that it will replace fiat currencies very soon (20 years-ish), hence the present value is justified due to absurdly high future value. However, I see that possibility as infinitesimally small due to the fact that governments would have to accept Bitcoin for taxes / debt which is a conundrum in of itself, deflationary currencies likely won't work well supporting a global economy, and host of other reasons that I probably shouldn't list in a response to a comment. But I hope that illustrates the point.

I think that people just won't adopt bitcoin. Simply. The prime reason is the retarded blocksize limitations.

The tragic part is that lightning will require much larger blocks in order to function properly anyway. They may as well start increasing it now so the network could actually be used in commerce, so it can actually benefit from the network effect, and justify at least some of its price growth.

Agree, I do think the store of value or digital gold labels are just created to cover the problems that Bitcoin has right now. Bitcoin is "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", according to the paper of Satoshi. If any deflationary cryptos can be the store of value, why not ETH(potentially), LTC, etc? I think ETH or some other smart contract platforms will dethrone BTC sooner or later. And all of those scammy fork coins will be worthless if they didn't put some real tech into the system.

I thought about the same and it was really surprising to see someone saying the words I would have said, but just better. Congrats, you seem to have a well consolidated opinion about Bitcoin's value.

I agree that BTC has issues and its price seems disconnected from its value. Someone recently posted about that... Price is what it costs, value is what its worth.

What bitcoin does estsblishes its value, and price can follow value but not always as a 100% positive correlation.

In my mind what bitcoin does Dash and Litecoin are objectively better at, yet btc rules the marketcap.

Like you. Im not down on btc. I like it. I trade it. But right now im more bullish on other things because in my view there are other coins where the value is MUCH higher than current price reflects.

So glad you are on steemit!
Love your content!
Up-voted and resteemed.

Thanks for the comment! Unfortunately even if you look at Litecoin & Dash, their transaction volume to market cap ratio is not great either. The whole field is filled with euphoria, fueled initially by Bitcoin. It's still very interesting to watch and even more interesting to trade, but must be careful in all of it given that Bitcoin affects all (and hence why majority of my content focuses on it). Hope you stick around!

I am curious what your thoughts are on Hash Graph?

Two things: 1) You point out the psychological effect surrounding people's minds right now (thank you for that.) 2) Someone I listened to over the weekend (you?) said that you need at least one naysayer/devils advocate on your team, b/c soundbox yes-men will not push your mind outside yourself. For that, you fill that role well, and I want to thank you for that- I find it very valuable.
Best,
Brian

First and foremost, love your content & critical analysis in a time where everyone is absurdly bullish.

I know you didn't want questions like "What do you think of X currency" etc.

However, can you answer this?

If you had just discovered the crypto space and wanted to invest just $100, where would you put it? I'm not asking for financial advise. I'm just curious on your opinion as a longterm hold with the CURRENT prices. What % would you put into which currencies for a relatively safe investment? (keyword being relative, I understand crypto is a very high risk environment in general at the moment)

Do you think of ALL crypto as a bubble given the current hype? Or do you think there are crypto's that have largely been unaffected by the BTC mania? If so, which of these crypto's do you consider to be unaffected and a reasonable investment.

I am not asking for investment advice, I am asking for your opinion. I understand your answer is not investment advice and everyone should only invest what they are fully willing to lose.

With $100, assuming you live in a first world country, any losses aren't going to substantially affect you even if you're young. It may take a while to get $100 back, but in the long-run it won't affect you much. Hence I'd say stick with the large-cap cryptocurrencies (top 10 or so). Personally I'd recommend splitting it between Bitcoin and Ethereum. I like Ethereum more right now (and my portfolio currently has much more ETH than BTC), but Bitcoin is the granddaddy so it's hard to argue against. GDAX has no fees for limit orders, which is very important when working with lower amounts.

Yes, I think most of crypto is a bubble right now because of the Bitcoin mania. Some things are less bubbly than others and I tend to think have a lower probability of popping, but there are cryptocurrencies that have no working product which have market caps larger than a billion, and many more with market caps over $100m. There is no cryptocurrency that is unaffected, but it's not worth staying out of the market just because of that since there is such large return opportunities - rather to watch it closely and scale your positions appropriately.

I would like to know your opinion about ETHlend, a live (alpha on mainnet) collateralized P2P lending DAPP. Its marketcap is less than 100M, which is relatively less bubble like, I would say.

Thank you for this...you've effectively let me observe that my guard is especially prone to be down when I'm reading and investing in bitcoin.

I've been thinking about buying an antminer S9 (atleast a 2100$ investment) for a few weeks and for me it is quite an investment and is probably a very risky move (involving taking a small loan).

This video let me step back and reflect if that is an appropriate decision and if it is worthwhile, keep making videos, thanks!
REPLY

Dude life pro tip: never take loans to invest in high risk assets. Its a recipe to disaster.

I'd be especially careful with purchasing mining equipment right now, especially one as old as the S9 is. ASICs get outdated quickly given the massive rise in the hashing rate of the network.

Interesting video... Basically you're telling people it's important to use logic, understand what might be and what will be are 2 different things, and to sometimes bring yourself outside of the echo-chamber you are use to, all of which I mostly agree with.

The only thing I would say to somewhat dispute your throught process is to remind you that things move 100x faster now-a-days then they did in the past. An an example of this, you brought up how the internet took longer then it should of to get mass adoption and to be implemented into businesses and society, which is true... BUT would that of been the case if the internet already existed to pass along the idea of the internet to the mass population? Basically my point is before the internet existed thoughts/ideas took far longer to reach critical mass so comparing the world pre-internet to the world post-internet is not a good way to look at things as now-a-days a thought/idea can go viral via the internet 10000000x faster then it ever could in the past. Is the crypto prices ahead of where they should be? more then likely yes... but is the cryptos decades away from being mass adopted and implemented into business and society as a whole? In my strong opinion hell no... We are in a world that is stuck in fast-forward now due to the internet, so try not to compare the world of today with the trends/patterns of yesterday otherwise you really are comparing apples and oranges and it may very well cloud your overall understand of the likley path forward, and its potential timeline.

Just some food for thought.

I have considered this - the fact that the physical infrastructure exists and the internet is already developed which will speed up adoption. Andreas, in the meeting with the Senate I mention above, estimated roughly 8 years for substantial adoption if I recall correctly (so 2022) because of these factors. However, I suspect it will take far longer. Open source slows down development and the decentralization of Bitcoin has already illustrated how gridlock can happen. Governance is all over the place.

Furthermore, the banks and fintech companies really aren't taking Bitcoin seriously yet. They are beginning to explore private blockchains, but with limited investment. More importantly, I guarantee you there are already ways to improve their businesses that they just haven't implemented yet because there isn't an economic incentive to do so yet. If Bitcoin begins taking their market share (or another crypto does), they will employ those technologies.

As time goes on, financial institutions won't stay still. Given this, Bitcoin must not only catch up to existing technology, but also future technology. I tend to think it will take far longer than you would suspect (20 years+). But that's one man's opinion.

It bothers me too when I hear everyone talking about Bitcoin like all they have to do is buy some and hang on for the ride. I love Bitcoin, Im mining it, and Im not rich yet but we'll see how it goes from now until 2021. Do you think Borderless Currency is a good reason to invest? Do you think we'll see our Steemit fortunes swell up and make us rich? What do you think of Ethereum and what will become in the long run with the millions lost/locked up due to a coding error? Are you going to jump on freedom-social 1776 token and do you think SparkleCoin has a future. I ask because I think both are special cases in the cryptocurrency world. Lastly, because you are such a rock star, what do you think of my U4Ride.atlantaairport.taxi venture, Im planning a Taxi Token and a $300,000 ICO. And hell yeah, you are welcome at my Aragon.one board of directors table just based on the handful of your videos Ive seen.

The Human Brain is the most complex living thing in the Universe. My Replika AI told me that.....

Look forward to your reply, or at least an upvote.

What you've posted is something I've been thinking about the past few days. Yes, I'm carefully mining/investing, but I realized that Bitcoin -- as a transaction medium -- isn't working. You can't say that it's fulfilling its duty as a digital currency when you have 160,000+ unconfirmed transactions and those that are confirmed aren't done so for 70 - 90 hours.

I do think that (part) of its growth is due to the fact that more and more people want to "separate" their finances from their respective fiat currencies. Bitcoin -- because of its finite supply -- seems to be fitting the bill...at least for now. Still, I wasn't expecting to see Bitcoin $18,000 this soon. I, to, think it's overvalued...at least at present.

I'm not the expert in crytocurrency (yet), but I believe we really need a fork that will improve the usability and speed of Bitcoin transactions. This ongoing mess will only get worse as more money piles in. Or, as time goes on, alternate currencies will eventually rise and take Bitcoin's place.

In the meantime, I think we can both agree that we should invest carefully and take gains for now, but have an exit strategy in place if/when things turn.

I appreciate your thoughtfulness and how you separate emotion from fact. It's rare these days.

For now, I think it'd be best to hold off on forks and work on off-scale solutions to see if they work. If that doesn't work, or if it needs further scaling (as we are many orders of magnitude away from Visa level processing), then can start thinking about more on-chain solutions through forks. Thank you for your comment.

Thank you for taking the time to respond! I know you were saying that forks shouldn't be implemented.....so I figured you might want to see this, if you haven't already...

http://lightningbitcoin.io/

I really like your video. Very insightful and helps me in reviewing my strategy.

Thanks for watching cpt.

Hey, what do you think about the alt's capitalization? Do some have justifiable future value present valuations in regards to their penetration of the real economy with acutal applications? global remmitances, prediction markets, smart contracts. If CCs penetrate the real economy, as in people using and holding on to them (as opposed to selling them through bitpay), which sector of commerce will it get through in first?

Most alts are directly affected by the run-up in Bitcoin and hence are likely in bubbles as well (and in some cases even more-so than Bitcoin, in others less-so). In the ideal case where we see cryptocurrencies become real competitors in the world, then likely the ones that have been tested and are successful products will have a much higher chance of survival than the many projects that are just ideas or very low adoption. Hence why it is critical not to invest much the lower you go in the list.

What do you mean by ''successful projects''? Is having a working payment network a ''successful project'' or do you refer to more complex applications like ripplenet's xCurrent, xRapid and
xVia? or cloud computing and storage services.

Good to know you are here on steemit.
You are one of the people that isnt delusional about the cryptos.
Like you said, we are all betting on what bitcoin might be, and in the end we dont have any parameter to evaluate the true value of the cryptos.
Keep your good work!

Yes - far too many people that are certain in a world of uncertainties. Many of these people likely would be better off with blockchain jobs rather than investing because those jobs let you take that passion and put it to good work. Or invest directly into blockchain related companies or efforts that support Bitcoin. Passion with investing tends to lead to extreme results - both good and bad.

Usually bad ones.
Its been around 6 months i started to learn more about How the market Works(one month with cryptos), and see If i can do something with It, and one thing that i see now and then that always strikes me is that affirmation that "If most of the people lose money on the market, the best thing to do is the opposite of what everyone is doing"
I bought a small amount of BTC but what i think i am seeing is the announcement If the first crypto catastrophe.
Cryptos technology definetly wont end, but maybe a big hit is betting closer everyday...
But maybe not. Who knows?

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