[BTC] - Where is the bottom?
HI all, Crypto Sludge here.
First of all i would like to thank everybody who are following, i have reached 101 followers!
Social media was never my thing and blogging even less so, i must say i got quite surprised by the numbers growing. I am really not sure how many of my followers are real and how many are bots, but i would like to say thank you! to all of you, humans and machines alike, for reading, voting, re-steeming and commenting on my posts. Please keep it up, your feedback is super important to me, and i think i am starting to understand why so many people do this. This interaction is addicting :)
Back to the matter at hand. One thing i noticed during this market correction, is the lack of panic. And i mean real panic. I am following BTC for years, and every major correction has had a profound doom and gloom feel to it, at least on the usual social platforms and when i talked to people .
What i do see, is tons of FUD on the conventional media, the bitcoin is dead obituaries are clear, they FUD about S.korea, they FUD about India, they FUD about Tether and Bitfinex and many others, and the price responds , but the people seem to be untouched (and i don't talk about the true HODLers, they are not part of this game as their coins are not on the exchanges).
I do not know if this is the result of market maturity, overall optimism about BTC, denial or simply because BTC has done that so many times before , people become complacent. I do however know that although BTC is a whole new asset class, it is still been traded by humans in a similar matter other asset types are traded, so i allow my self to make the analogy from the stock market to the crytpo market and say that without capitulation, there will be no rebound.
So what are really needed, is some capitulation candles, some true old-school panic on social media , with people screaming how they lost everything (as was with bitconnect implosion) some "blood on the streets".
And that will be the point i will start buying even more , because on the technology side , bitcoin is at a much better position it was for years, the mempool is almost empty, fees are super low with 5sat/vbyte transactions clearing on the next block, the hash rate is growing at 10-15% every re target, Lightning network is growing exponentially on the main and test nets, privacy implementation are been worked on vigorously , Segwit adaptation is at all time high, Major players like Samsung! are planning to go into bitcoin ASIC manufacturing more and more businesses accept bitcoin, even Twitters CEO is supporting it now.
Yes the market needed a shake-off, maybe it needs a deeper correction after going from 1k$-20k$ during one year. Or the market is being manipulated by whales :) and it will reverse when they decide it's time to reverse it.
In any case, remember that this is our only chance of financial independence and our only shot of shaking off the parasite financial system that been leeching off us for hundreds of years. If you think they will roll over and die without a fight you are wrong. This is just the beginning. And if we really want to be free, we need to be strong. Because by the time we finish, we won't care about the BTC/USD price, all we will care is that 1BTC will always be worth 1BTC, the rest will be history.
So stay strong!
Trade ON!
Crypto sludge.
Congrats on your new followers! Just found your blog, followed. Here's my take on Bitcoin price path. Might be valuable to you.
IMPORTANT COIN UPDATES - BTC, XVG, TRON — Steemit https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/important-coin-updates-btc-xvg-tron
Thanks man! I'll check it out.
I saw this bubble chart many times today, but BTC never dropped to a lower price than where the bubble started in it's history. Beside that the drops got smaller over time (95% in the beginning to 80% in 2014) and during the previous bubbles BTC was really in trouble fundamentally. This time the fundamentals are better than ever (great new tech coming out and really huge news about adoption) and the drop is mainly technical and some fake FUD (previous drop was Korea ban, only a little regulation really happened). Thats why I expect the bottom around 7500, because that is an important technical point (200 DMA and Fibonacci) and then the drop is than about 62,5%. A bigger drop makes no sense for me since there is no real issue and the market is way bigger and more robust than in 2014
I do agree on the fundamentals we are in a far better place then we ever been. I am more interested on the sentiment of this correction. And how it appears different from corrections i followed before. I do agree that 8500-7500 is the logical target, and i do wonder if the 2k drop from where we now will generate the panic i am so used on seeing, or the market have indeed evolved beyond emotions and actually matured - which will be an amazing achievement for the ecosystem.
It would be hard to think that the market has evolved beyond emotions with so many new investors into crypto
I think you are right that we haven't seen enough capitulation, but if so where are we? We could be at the first selloff, or we could be near the bull trap and return to normal phase. Or has this just happened so many times now that this model is no longer useful to describe the market's psychology? The last option is kind of scary and makes my head hurt.
That! is the mother of all questions, i mean, if we put everything aside and look at the charts, the 1D specially the bounce earlier to 17K was the perfect "return to normal" bull trap, and now we seem to be in the capitulation phase. But if we look at the weekly, we are at about the end of the selloff and in the Denial phase - which can explain the lack of panic i am seeing. So that means that the bull trap is still ahead of us!
One thing i been thinking about after writing this post, is if maybe over time, i have surrounded myself with seasoned traders and more accurate news sources and thus creating the echo chamber in which i can't see the panic, blood and capitulation i am so used on seeing? I will need to look into this.
4chan was r-r-right!
yes kick it keep going
BTC about to be overtaken by ETH in the next few months. BTC is an old and dying dinosaur!
Sure m8, it might get there, and then it will implode. ETH survived so far because nobody used it except scamming people with ICO's, and it wasn't attacked massively. And when it was attacked, who suffered? the poor shmoes putting their money into the contracts that will never be made secure enough,
because you can't make a touring complete language 100% secure.
(remember the DAO? or Parity Wallets?) both outcomes were terrible.
if it gets the same attention as BTC gets now? heheh it will be hilarious. The fucking kitties game almost brought it down to it's knees when it actually got used to something...., and do you really want a block chain with a leader? which can be bought/silenced/manipulated or simply taken out? someone who can change consensus rules as he wished? not me ty. i will buy me my cheap btc and watch ETH burn.
I am totally unfazed by these crashes. People need to stop panicking and hold on. After the 2013 crash the media FUD went on for almost 2 years. Look where we are now.
Yup, i mean we been saying this for years, did it really happened? :D
Congratulations on reaching the first hundred!
I always enjoy reading your reports, ideas, and notes. Your content is unique and very helpful! I am looking forward to writing you the similar postcard on the 1000th jubilee subscriber. I hope that decentralization is a gamechanger and it gives us a chance to live a bit in Jacque Fresco's world.
Good luck! Trade on!
Thank you man! appreciate the kind words.
One can hope! and i know just one thing, is that we never had a better chance until now.
I have no doubt Bitcoin will go up again as it has demonstrated over and over again. Don't believe the fake media, cryptocurrencies are the future, no matter what.
yesss, agreeee "In any case, remember that this is our only chance of financial independence and our only shot of shaking off the parasite financial system that been leeching off us for hundreds of years. If you think they will roll over and die without a fight you are wrong. This is just the beginning. And if we really want to be free, we need to be strong. Because by the time we finish, we won't care about the BTC/USD price, all we will care is that 1BTC will always be worth 1BTC, the rest will be history."