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RE: Predicting the price of Bitcoin
I think you are making the mistake of associating timing one's investment or buy-ins with speculating.
Warren Buffet still waits for a good price before he buys into companies. He determines a value and then only buys when the stock or asset trades below that value.
So timing is still important @beunconstrained.
If you are only buying Bitcoin based on the 'fundamentals' without determining the VALUE (i.e. market cap) of those fundamentals, you may be investing in a cryptocurrency that has good fundamentals but is over-valued (i.e. Bitcoin).
I don't think that is the type of investing that Warren Buffet does.
Timing is important and I think it's best to invest when a cryptocurrency's market cap is undervalued.
I'll give you the importance of timing. I just hope that speculators don't control the conversation here and make us all forget why we got into this game changing technology in the first place.
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In case you didn't know, there are close to 50,000 active accounts on the Steem blockchain each and everyday @beunconstrained.
I haven't looked into the other sites you mentioned earlier but I doubt they have anything close to that.
The fact that @steemit was able to onboard this many users with an average wait time of 2 weeks for account activation is impressive.
And I don't agree with your analysis when you say there isn't any value in the Steem blockchain. @ned is definitely using his talk about Destiny to increase the confidence of Steem stakeholders but I also think it is more than just talk.
I see the next 3 to 12 months as a great buying opportunity (not investment advice) and I think Steem will be undervalued once it falls below a $50 million market cap.
That's based on my experience trading pennystocks with much less actuality to their story than Steem.
I don't know how bad things will get for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general but they might get beatup pretty bad. I am not basing that on technical analysis but on the presence of positive speculation.
Usually hope is exausted after such a huge spike before the next bull run and I haven't seen that happen yet.
I also think you are still underestimating the value of timing @beunconstrained.
Believing in the fundamentals is not good enough. You must determine the value in terms of market cap for those fundamentals and then only invest when the market cap falls below that.
That is value investing - Everything else is speculation @beunconstrained.
And then this.... https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/amidst-dwindling-prices-steemit-lays-70-workforce/
I am not sure about this but I think they'll manage to get through this @beunconstrained.
This doesn't change any of my forecasts since I half expected more bad news before good news, not only for Steem but for all cryptocurrencies.
The goal should probably be for @steemit to generate revenue (fiat) outside of their Steem holdings, and advertisements on the Trending page has been recommended by the community.
I am buying a little bit every month and expect to be able to purchase Steem close to the next bottom. It's high risk but it is my only high risk investment (or speculation if you want to call it that) and I still think the risk vs. reward is worth it, so long as I scatter out my purchases in small amounts over a long period of time.
I think you have a good idea that they should generate revenue like any business to show a profit, before relying on their valuations and coin speculation as their only means of income. I think you are onto something there. Clearly they can't survive at this level. Interesting comments on the Voskcoin YouTube channel today about this:
It looks like the pinned comment on that YouTube video was posted by you @beunconstrained I am not sure but it really seems like it.
Even if @steemit goes dark, @steem the blockchain would remain. The price of Steem would fall significantly, and if it ever managed to recover, the people who bought at the all-time lows or new lows would do well.
I also think that some of the Dapps that supply their own nodes would survive and @ned could create a splash page on the @steemit domain name directing to the live Dapps until Steemit could be brought online again.
As much as you dislike @steemmonsters, I suspect that they would survive and maybe even continue to do well. Hopefully @aggroed will post a response to @ned's announcement.
I'm still happy with the performance of Steem and the Steemit team but that is mainly due to my moderate expectations.
It's not easy to do what they are doing and I think they have still accomplished a lot. They couldn't focus on the things you wanted due to their focus on more critical things for the blockchain like Hardfork 20.
P.S. I started to doubt that Bitcoin and Steem would crash a few days before they did, but before that, I had been expecting a crash of this scale. I didn't know what the bad news would actually be but I suspected that there would be some sort of breaking news that would reverse market sentiment.
Yep that is my comment. I did not expect Vosck to pin it but if you read the responses to it, it seems a widely held and accepted view. I will not be posting here as actively. The community is not being realistic with addressing what is needed to advance this technology and I don't invest time and money into anything that does not adjust itself to prevailing winds. I had hope but that is not enough in business. I wish you well and God speed. The money is not important to me. It is the tech that I'm interested in and clearly there are issues. I'll wait until that is addressed before investing further here.
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Thanks for the time you spent writing articles on @steemit and for replying to a lot of my comments. I received value from your contributions and wish you well @beunconstrained.
~ @chrisrice
I never enjoyed watching videos on YouTube - I was a producer with @emaferice, not a consumer. But now I am finding myself enjoy videos from people like @kenmelendez & @freedompoint.
The fact that Steem was able to turn me into a video consumer proves that this is game changing technology. I never would have thought I'd be watching other people's videos but here I am.
Everyday I wake up and check my feed for content from @kenmelendez, @freedompoint or people like @helenoftroy and @gadrian I remember why I am here.
Make sure YOU remember why you're here @beunconstrained.
I think we are here for very different reasons. I'm not here for any hopeful basis on price and trading of Steem. Personally I couldn't care less about it's price, or its adoption. What I care about is that this is a platform where I can blog and I won't be censored. That's priority #1 for me. I will do the same on my own website in 2019, and I can monetize that with Adwords, etc. and probably make 1000x more money doing that than here. But again, I don't need the money - I already have the money. I need exposure. If this provides a way to get it, great. But you know I'm not a long term believer here yet, and you probably won't change my mind on that. Until this platform matures, it isn't an option for those trying to be content creators (I'm talking those trying to truly compete with the YouTube creators). When YouTube demonetized content, censor creators and reduced earnings, it didn't represent a massive uptick in dTube or Steem content. I cited Jeff Berwick's hesitation to go all in on Steem after he was censored off Facebook. This is because this is low barrier to entry here - there are 7+ billion people on this planet and as more of them get Internet connections, there is a massive amount of low grade content spam here, which keeps the professional content creators away. They would prefer to gain audience on YouTube even though they are not making as much money doing it, because it is about vanity. They want exposure. They can cross post to Steem dApps, but I don't think they will make this their primary platform.
My initial thought was that it could be the primary platform. I still have some reduced expectations that with maturity it might. But I'm not seeing positive signs towards that, and I don't share your optimism based on both adoption rate and price. I do, however, agree with you that there is an enormous opportunity to create an uncensored platform that rewards subscribers and viewership based on quality and not bot fueled upvoting. Maybe they will change the economics and anatomy here to achieve that, and turn this around. There is still time. But I don't see myself posting as actively here if there are other, more suitable, platforms that I can publish to.
So that is why I'm here. I'm not sharing in the "Steem maximalist" vision that you have, and maybe you will be a wealthy man from it. But I am looking to the fundamentals and seeing a very different picture than your charts show. I know you would like me to agree with you on these things, but I can't and you'll have to accept that for what it is and move on.
I don't mind that you disagree with me and I think it's good to clarify our differences.
I am not interested in exposure as I experienced it on YouTube already and it wasn't as pleasant as some might expect.
It was a lot of work, very little downtime and the relationships were more about people following us than about talking to one another and having a good time doing so.
I am more interested in the community side of Steem than the amount of clicks or impressions I can get. Facebook pretty much has that locked in, and once @emaferice and I were getting the impressions that some people seek, it was more commercial and fanbased than down to earth and real.
The community side of Steem can upend the advertisor based model for social networks and make interacting online healthier, friendlier and more enjoyable.
That is why I am here.
I appreciate you enjoying my videos. It is alittle more difficult right nos. With Steem still not really mainstream we are mostly creators creating for other creators. March should be different with SMTs.
Yeah, that's true but before I didn't even consume videos, at all. And now I am so I think that is a great start.
The biggest change will probably come when a Dapp uses search algorithms and recommendations similar to YouTube. I like that @dtube doesn't do that but I also think there should be Dapps that do.
Creating a sister Dapp for @dtube that does that would be a great idea @heimindanger. Then the decentralized version of @dtube could compete with the more centralized sister Dapp version of @dtube. I think it would help everyone!
@steeveapp is starting to do it a little bit and I am finding some good authors that way. Like I said before, I enjoy your videos a lot @freedompoint 😊👍🏼
Thank you 😁