HARD FORKING BITCOIN - Who Would Benefit From a Contentious Bitcoin Fork and What Are The Potential Ramifications in The Fallout of ETH & ETC.

I've always been one to analyze every possible situation from as many different angles and perspectives as possible. I believe it to be prudent to hypothesize what the ramifications of a contentious hard fork to the Bitcoin network would be, and how exactly the crypto community can recover from such an "unthinkable" event.

Let us begin by asking ourselves this question: "Who would benefit from the a Bitcoin hard fork?"

Sooner or later, a hard fork of the Bitcoin protocol will given to miners. Considering that there has been a heated debate for several years now over whether or not the Bitcoin block size should be increased, one would assume that those who would immediately benefit would be those who are in support of such a change. Organizations such as Coinbase or blockchain.info are on board supporting an increase in block size, and they are major players in the space. Additionally, a few mining pools are also on board for bigger block sizes, as they result in bigger fees.

We know that, in June, Blockstream recently met with miners to talk about increasing the block size. What could be the result of such a conversation? What could they be planning?

Regardless of the outcome of this meeting, we now can come to a realistic conclusion that groups within the crypto space are interested in working alongside miners and/or other groups to push an agenda/ exert control on the Bitcoin space; whether this could be pro-fork or anti-fork.

Now, take into consideration what happened with Ethereum and its hard fork. For brevity, I will assume you know the for and against fork arguments. ETC (Ethereum Classic) was created, essentially splitting the community in pro-fork, anti-fork competing halves. Which chain will become the dominant chain? People are speculating on it now. People are BUYING Ethereum Classic, the chain which technically didn't win out in consensus. They can lose money as a result of this.

Now, imagine what would happen if this were to happen to Bitcoin! There are all of a sudden two chains (or more...), with miners working in coordination with outside groups to keep the old chain moving, and miners working with pro-fork groups to keep the fork chain going. How does one decide which chain to support?

How do we know that the fork wasn't put forth by outside interests colluding? It could also be that those who were against the fork have a vested interest in keeping pre-fork Bitcoin alive, and they then continue to mine that chain.

High profile individuals such as Craig Wright (love him or hate him) could step in and try to convince the community which chain is the correct chain. However, how would we know his take is to be trusted? This could be said for many members of the crypto community taking sides in such an event.

Now let's speculate a bit on which organizations would be in favor of splitting Bitcoin up... BANKS, perhaps?! What would banks be able to gain from a split in Bitcoin? Well, they'd be able to accumulate the cheaper chain at a much lower cost under the assumption that parity will be reached at some point. Then they can flex their muscle w/ their fork BTC. Obviously, well funded government entities could do this as well.

They also are able to damage the new paradigm threatening their business. They can take the currently valuable Bitcoin away from those who already have it, and reallocate that valuation towards their chain. A lot of people would be effected by this. They'd essentially be able to co-opt their wealth via a contentious hard fork/ chain split situation.

Such an event could destroy a lot of Bitcoin's value (at least in the short term). Which chain is the consensus chain? Which is the "real" Bitcoin? Wherein does the real value lie?

Just something for you all to stew over. Pandora's box has been open now that Ethereum forked and Ethereum Classic has been created. The precedent has been set that 2 chains can exist and have value at the same time. If and when a fork of the Bitcoin protocol happens, I would recommend not selling any of the Bitcoin credited to you. Just like in ETH/ETC, you would have equal amounts on both chains. Holding each will be the best way to protect yourself until one eventually wins out.

Communities are already popping up to discuss forking bitcoin, such as reddit.com/r/btcfork. It is really only a matter of time until such a situation arises. The existence of two chains is only one potential ramification, so its probably best to discuss it now.

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Thank you for reading. If you enjoyed the topic discussed, I would appreciate your upvote :)

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