Cautious Crypto Market Re-Entry : Top 5 Risks Reviewed
In early December I posted the 5 Reasons I Sold My Cryptos and at the time I copped a bit of flak about it. Among other things I was accused of selling the Doomsday scenario and I’d have to admit that I was a bit unpopular amongst Crypto-Bulls at the time. 7 weeks later and a lot has happened since. I have more followers now and there have been a few people telling me they wished they’d seen my old post earlier. Such is life.
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Anyway, I’m rested up from the holiday period now and have been focusing more on writing here on STEEM. I’m feeling a bit more optimistic about the Crypto market too. I thought it was a good time to go back and have a look at those Risks I had identified and see if they’re still relevant. You might need to go back and read that old post HERE as it will explain the Risks and put the below comments into context.
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Bitcoin Cash has had a few attempts at flipping SegWit Bitcoin and yet remains in the shadows. I had been concerned about the higher BTC fees and the possibility of BCH making inroads but they aren’t getting a lot of traction with exchanges and with the Lightening Network apparently just around the corner this risk seems reduced. Also reduced is the knock on risk of BTC bringing down the whole alt-coin market. I have recently written about Ethereum getting more trading pairs on many exchanges and potentially taking over the role of Gateway Crypto as BTC falters and this gives the rest of the alt-coin market some redundancy if BTC does fail. Overall these Risks are still present but they are lessenned.
I still do have some concerns about Tether and Bitfinex. As the market has contracted over the last month or so I have been on the lookout for any news of Tether refusing redemptions back to US Dollars, but nothing so far. I did raise an eyebrow when I saw that Bitfinex was requiring $10K USD deposit for new accounts and wondered if that was a cash flow related decision but I consider this current correction to be a reasonable test of Tether solvency. If it has survived this long it might survive long enough to reach the next Crypto rally. I currently consider this to be the new #1 Risk though, so keep an eye out.
I feel for those investors who got caught up in this Ponzi, but from a broader market perspective I am very glad this Ponzi has inevitably collapsed as it takes one of the risks out of the picture. I do think the collapse of BitConnect may have badly impacted on broader market sentiment, but it wasn’t as bad as I feared and I believe it has now been priced in. It is always good to see bad market errors get flushed out like this and so this is actually good news.
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In early December the SBD Pump really had me spooked. It didn’t make sense and one of my Golden Rules is that if you don’t understand what’s happening in a market then GET OUT. I was concerned SBD was being used for Safe Haven demand by insiders but I have been watching it closely (even writing about it) and due to correlations with the broader market I have come to the conclusion that this is not Safe Haven demand, but Speculative Excess and possibly Manipulation. Now that doesn’t mean it’s a good thing as Speculative Excess can cause big market volatility and Risk in its own right, while Manipulation is unethical. Regardless I am redefining this Risk and discounting it heavily.
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We did finally have the overdue correction with Bitcoin and others having 50%+ drops after hitting highs in December. Going back over my old post I did have a good laugh when I read this snippet again :-
BTC is possibly going to go on and double its price in the next month but it’s going to do it without me on board.
It actually did almost double from the time I wrote the post, but BTC and others have now pulled back to be lower than it was when I wrote it. So the History of big price corrections has played out and the current Technical Analysis suggests we are into a new consolidation phase where sentiment is shaken, but not broken. If it was going to crash harder than it has already then I’d expect it to have happened by now. If you have a look at the volume spike on January 18 that could be the capitulation low, but we had similar volume on December 22 so we might get 1 more. I’m looking for that big volume spike and a sharp reversal to the upside.
Overall, out of the 5 Risks I identified in December, only 1.5 of them are still in play so I see that as a very encouraging thing. It has been debateable whether I should have identified a 6th Risk as being a Regulatory Crackdown. My personal opinion is that Banning Crypto would be a totally counter-productive move by any Government. I’m not saying they won’t try, but I think any country which Bans Crypto will be left behind and will only succeed in driving Crypto underground, while those countries who embrace it will prosper. I think some of the smarter Governments are figuring that out and are instead trying to work out how to tax it or otherwise benefit from this new phenomenon.
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If we have a quick review of the last 7 weeks we have what I would consider a pretty classic blow-off top happening on December 17 with Bitcoin hitting an All-Time-High of nearly $20K USD, followed by a pre-Christmas correction as people took some profits. Then we had a fresh wave of optimism for the New Year, followed by some FUD caused by a rogue South Korean politician who spooked the market with the threat of a ban. The South Korean public responded with disapproval and now we have South Korea trying to apply some taxes to exchanges, which they are going to LEGITIMISE in the process. This is actually somewhat bullish. There is an old adage in markets that suggests you are near the low when a market sells on any news, good or bad. I think that might be happening now and we are only trending lower due to Weaker Sentiment and Technical Traders who are following the downtrend while ignoring Fundamentals.
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As a result of all this, I am moving some of my Fiat Reserves back into Crypto this week. I think there is a reasonable chance we’ve either seen the low, or we are about to see it and the current market setup looks like an opportunity to buy some good alt-coins at a discount. I am still wary of Bitcoin, but I do have some research to do regarding the timing of the Lightning Network implementation. I concede that there could be some uber-bullish news for BTC coming out soon but don’t hold your breath. Stay tuned for some more information on that front.
DISCLAIMER – This information is for general information only and should not be taken as financial advice. I am not a financial adviser and I encourage all readers to seek independent financial advice before investing in any Cryptos
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@buggedout, great post - resteemed, wishing we had of sold more into the end of 2018 crypto market peak, but have still done really well over the past 6 months, despite making lots of mistakes ha ha. Ultimately I think something will come along and replace Bitcoin and Ethereum, I am not sure if it is out there in the market yet, or whether it is yet to come along. I am on the lookout for it though.
We all make mistakes. Sometimes you only need to be right 55% of the time and you're in front!
I'm on the lookout too and I think if the recent pumps (and dumps) of coins like IOTA and Raiblocks are any indicator, the rest of the market is too.
You sold when everyone was buying and now your buying when everyone is selling.
This strategy has worked for centuries.
Thanks. I hope you're right but I'm not sure that everyone is selling right now :)
lol...I wish I was following you then, exellent post, well thought out...although I've been in Crypto for ~3 years, I'm a Steemit Newbie and still feel I'm a Crypto Newbie due to the mistakes I've made as well. Not selling a portion and realizing gains to buy the dips chief among them.
Thanks. I think we are all Crypto Newbies to be honest. I've made plenty of mistakes too but I do my best to learn from them.
I think we're pretty low now too. I see a chance of us visiting 8K still, but that would 'only' be a 20% dip from where we are which is okay in crypto.
I myself don't try to sell at the top and re-buy back in lower like you are. It's a profitable strategy if it pays out, but it's so hard timing the markets even with a lot of TA and research. It's just as likely that you end up on the outside while the rocket is taking off.
I basically have never converted any crypto into fiat. When I do trade it's crypto-to-crypto. I guess I'm just confident that in the future, things will be up, regardless of what happens now. True hodler here :)
If it works for you then great! For me, I find it hard to watch a portfolio drop by 50% and I'd been working the Crypto portfolio pretty hard and needed a break. It's worked out for me so far but timing the market is hard.
Oh yes sure it hurts to have it drop 50%. But when that happens I remember that 90% of these projects I invested in have not even gotten started yet.. we're still on the ground floor. When i look at my NEO price swings, going form $180 to $120.. I don't care because I know in a year from now it's going to be the price Ethereum is at now. It's just a bump in the road! I find hodling much less stressful than worrying if I'm timing it right
Hindsight is always 20/20, but some of these recent highs seem a little more obvious to me now, I hope I'm smarter next time
My experience is that the moment something starts to become obvious, it suddenly stops doing that behaviour and catches you by surprise after all! If it's not the first time, it'll be the second time. To me, the gains to be had are just not worth risking my stack (because I'd be buying back in later for a higher price)
This is great post december i had no crytocurrency
I don’t think regulation means banning. It means “lawing” it to death which we are beginning to see with the know your customer bs and all the taxing. I would also include derivative markets such as futures market as regulation. This gets all the cnbc tards onboard and talking about btc going to 1000 while believing that fiat is the safestajd that 20% in 5years is great.
Ok, Banning is a strong word. There will be some jurisdictions that will make themselves unappealing to new Crypto ventures if they excessively regulate. That will be to their own detriment.
My 2 cents.
I see "lawing' as an opportunity and not a threat to the cryptosphere, because now that means cryptos are legalized. Governments have at last realized that cryptos are not easy to kill and they too are joining the band wagon. Of course, there is a "payment" by way of tax. But then again, in this world, death and taxes are unavoidable.
So, "lawing" IS good for cryptos.
You got out at a good time though, you were actually able to get out. I'm doubting how many exchanges will be left standing after Tether continues to go parabolic and collapses in on itself. Best of luck to you, maybe there is a time window to make some more profits. I think more people are realizing the Tether issue is huge, and perception is a very strong thing in the investment world, once more realize the threat it poses they'll lose confidence in how it even operates.
If Tether is a form of Ponzi it is at least stronger than BitConnect was. Ponzis don't go down in bull markets, it's only when they come under price pressure or scrutiny that they fold. Tether may yet prove to be legit.
If there is one thing that I have noticed since I joined the Steemit platform since last December, it is that the platform has really experts know the subject of cryptocurrencies. For those who play hard in the market, what they have to do is pay attention to the information and trends that you generate almost daily. We the new ones, we keep learning from you. Thanks for the support. Greetings.
I would not call myself an expert by any stretch. But I agree that there are a lot of knowledgeable people here on STEEM and building a network here to share knowledge is a great investment of time. In the long run it will pay a greater dividend than any post reward.
Completely agree with you. Thank you for your attention and kind response. regards
This is so true...I believe many goverment would want to stop it, because with the crypto, anyone could match up to there standards. They might want to use the ponzi as an example, and how the ponzi scam went shipped wrecked. I am really watching out for the one I could invest in, you dont mind giving any suggest do you? I wish I had your foresight, it would really help to calculate when and how to detect a fall and rise...I really appreciate your post, it was awesome, I guess I would just call you the Crptolord...hahaha! Thanks!
Thanks, but no need for name calling please :)
The potential bad press surrounding the BitConnect collapse was something I was concerned about. I actually think the Governments and Mainstream Media might actually be too dumb to realise what has happened. They've missed an opportunity to slam the Crypto market for sure.
It's been a down month, but it's given me some time to do some more studying, find a few new ICO's that pique my interest and spend some more time here on steemit. Historically speaking BTC drops in January, nothing too concerning, just hold on, bright times ahead
Sounds good to me and I'd have to agree.
I share the same opinion and I cant wait to see what the future will make of the decision countries like S.Korea and India are making to fight crypto. They are missing out and will most likely lose their positions as some of the most prominent economies in the world.
I think South Korea are clever. The people are onto this new technology and they're onto the Government too. Putting some basic taxes on exchanges is not a big deal, it's smart and if they can get fair regulations around Crypto up faster than others they could well come out on top.
India I am not so optimistic about - lots of corruption there IMHO and as we have seen from their crackdown on cash, they are going in the direction of oppression rather than liberation.
India and Korae are not trying to ban cryptos. That rogue minister who was against cryptos is an exception. I am sure he must have some "special reason" for that.
As for India, things are moving fast with PM Modi. India Stack, India's governance network will soon have its blockchain counterpart. Andhra Pradesh has started that with their Velugu Core.
So, crypto babies (and their technology) are much more valuable to throw out with the bathwater.