A new look at Tether (USDT)

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Hello again everyone, just a quick idea that's been cooking up in my mind for some time now.

Some crypto exchanges out there, the big five being Bitfinex, Poloniex, Bittrex, Binance, and OKex use tether as their stable currency.

This is extremely useful during market swings, as it allows you to weather out the storm, and protect your capital. In this short article, I will not focus on whether Tethers are backed or not, instead, I would like to share my ideas about the time frames they are released.

We all know that tether should be pegged against the US dollar, yet we can observe how it fluctuates in value during a given period of time. It usually ranges from 0.9x - 1.0x. We also know that at any given time, there exists a circulating supply of Tethers, and of course, the total supply. So let us now observe a hypothetical situation in which the crypto markets are about to crash

  1. People notice early reversal signs, and try to find shelter in tethers.

  2. The prices start reversing, and even more people find their safety in tether, mostly by automated stop losses.

  3. This in turn, makes tethers more scarce, and the price of it starts increasing (1.00 -> 1.0x)

  4. It is time for people who control tether, to try reducing it's price. If possible, they release some of the tether from the total supply, into the circulating supply. They are basicaly trying to bring the value of a single tether as close as possible to 1.00 $

  5. Yet the crash continues, people still sell crypto for tether, and eventually, the total supply matches the circulating supply.

  6. This is where things diverge. Left untouched, tether value would skyrocket, further devaluating bitcoin on the 5 major exchanges, and cause a positive feedback loop. The price of bitcoin drops, while the value of tether increases, and it gets repeated over and over again.
    The only solution would be to print more tether, backed or unbacked, in an effort to keep the markets from crashing further

  7. Having printed new tether, you basically prevent this scenario from happening, while also buying huge amounts of crypto at a discount, which you can later use to manipulate the markets as you see fit, or in other manners that would benefit you.

This can be observed on the tether charts from December to January when massive amounts of new tether were introduced, in sync with the market correction phases.

Let me know what you think about this.

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