Bitcoin in the spotlight: Down 2.20% after China tariffs

The trade war between China and the US is shaking the markets, as bitcoin struggles to stay above $99,000. What's next for the leading cryptocurrency?

The price of Bitcoin fell 2.20% on Tuesday, trading at $99,104 at the time of this report, following China's announcement to impose 15% tariffs on American products. Although weak US employment data offers temporary support, the cryptocurrency market faces uncertainty due to the escalation of trade tensions and their impact on risk assets.

Given the high correlation of bitcoin with the Russell 2000 (Over 0.80 points), the world's leading cryptocurrency is seen by investors as a risk asset.

Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, trading above the EMA50 ($98,900) / TradingView

Trade war: China responds with tariffs and bitcoin falls

China announced on Tuesday a series of retaliatory measures against the United States, imposing additional tariffs of 15% on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition to 10% on crude oil, agricultural machinery and American vehicles. These measures respond to the trade war started by President Donald Trump and could generate inflationary pressures. These actions could further weaken risk assets, such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: Between trade tension and employment data

As the trade war shakes the markets, bitcoin found key support at $98,900, supported by weak employment data in the US. The JOLTs Job Openings revealed a figure of 7.6 million job openings in December, below the forecast of 8 million and the previous figure of 8.15 million. This slowdown in the labor market suggests an economic cooling, which could weaken the dollar and benefit risk assets, including bitcoin.

Bitcoin in critical zone

Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, trading above the EMA50 ($98,900). The EMA50, EMA100, and EMA200 moving averages are aligned upwards, confirming the positive sentiment. However, low trading volume and lack of buyer strength suggest that the market could be in a consolidation phase.

Key support: $98,900 (EMA50).
Key resistance: $108,000 (psychological level).

Futures open interest (OI): What does the data say?

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) decreased by 3.76% in 24 hours, standing at $59.91 billion. This figure is the lowest level since December 11, 2024. The ratio between long (49.51%) and short (50.49%) positions shows a near-perfect balance, indicating indecision in the market.

Funding Rate: 0.0073% (slightly positive).

The declining OI suggests that traders are closing positions, which could indicate a transition phase before a further significant move.

Bitcoin faces a complex scenario, with trade tensions between China and the US pressuring risk assets, while weak US employment data offers temporary support. Traders should keep an eye on the key levels of $98,900 and $108,000, as well as changes in Open Interest and the funding rate.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile assets; invest responsibly and do your own research.