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RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Mid-Day Update: DECISIVELY BREACH THAT UPPER TREND LINE!!

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

I do not know if this break-out has enough momentum to keep us above the long-term downtrend line for very long. It is accompanied by somewhat low volume, which is not a good sign.

I believe that a lot of people here are too narrowly focused-in on technical analysis. It is one useful way of trying to predict an unpredictable class of assets (cryptocurrencies), but the overall geo-political/financial/psychological aspects of analysis are even more relevant to price prediction when the overall sentiment is cautious and volatility is high.

A further thing to consider is what is going on in the stock market. Yes, it's a different market, but it's 500 times bigger than cryptos. The overall sentiment has been pretty cautious, or neutral. Last time the DOW took a dip, people kept most of their money in cash, with some small amount moving into gold. Cash then moved back into stocks. The point is, people who are saying that cryptos are a good long-term store of value have not been proven right or wrong - yet. Again, stocks are dropping. It is possible that more people may start looking for other options - and cryptos could go way up. But, I only see minor indications of this happening, so far. People need to remain skeptical and cautious regarding cryptos, and make sure you don't fall into scams, such as BitConnect - which I warned people about several months ago.

So, I don't think this break-out is going to stay above the longer-term resistance for very long. At least, the overall chances seem to be against it - unless we see a big increase in volume.

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