Bitcoin BTC/USDT BULL/BEAR Technical Analysis 7/7/2018

Technical Analysis:

• Bitcoin BTC/USDT has been consolidating for some time now
• It has been trading with low volume in this upward channel and most indicators are very neutral 
• This has not been an ideal trading zone considering the low volatility 

• BULL SCENARIO
  • Looking for a 5th wave up and targeting $7180 in the short term, $7800 longer term
  • There is a lot of resistance between $6670-$6800
    • Previous price action  - used to be a support
    • 200 Day EMA 
    • BTC has tried breaking this barrier 7x on the 1 hour chart since June 14, 2018
  • The only way for a move to $7180 and beyond is for a lot of volume to come in and break this resistance 
  • Confirmation will only occur after a solid body green candle closes above this on the 1 and 4 hour charts
  • Solid Support at $6350-$6480
    • $6450 is key level of support
    • 55 Day EMA
    • Previous price action
    • Top of Wave 1
    • .382 and .5 fib level support 
    • $6000 must hold in order to keep Bull Scenario alive 
  • Support at the .618 level = $6170 is another high probability bounce zone if a break below $6300 does occur
  • Increasing bull volume and buying pressure will have to come in this week in order for this to play out

• BEAR SCENARIO 
  • If $6450 breaks, a move to $6350 is probable and if that does not hold then a move to $6100 will be imminent 
  • A solid bodied red candle with significant sell volume will have to close in order to confirm this move down
  • BTC would be trading underneath both the 200 day and 55 day EMA's which is a difficult resistance level set up to break 
  • A break down below $6000 means that $5200-$5300 is a possibility 
    • This would look something this:
    •  Drop to $5750 range
    • Then to $5500 range
    • And then finally to $5250 range
  • In order for these drops to occur, significant selling pressure would have to come in, the same as the Bull Scenario but opposite
  • In its current state, BTC is neutral and a major news event (positive or negative) will be the driving force behind the next significant price move up or down  

• RSI NOTES:
  • The 4hour RSI in the 45 range is very neutral and does not indicate much at all
  • The weekly RSI is trending upwards from oversold territory 

INVESTOR NOTES:

To be clear, this has been a no trade zone for DAY TRADERS (not enough risk to reward) in these patterns and indicators.

• If you are an investor for the long term, these prices are still good buy zones
• Buying at $6400, $5700, or even $8000 is of little or no consequence when you believe the price will one day be $50,000 or beyond 
• Good investors will accumulate over time, constantly cost averaging their positions, with confidence that current market prices do not represent the true value of the asset in the long long term (anywhere from 6months - 4 years)
• Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still in its infancy as an asset, with only a few hundred billion in its total market cap - as compared to the trillions in the majority of all other asset classes
• Patience is key

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LEGAL DISCLAIMER:  

I am not a financial advisor, nor is this post intended to be  financial advise.  I encourage you to do your own research before  investing, or trading, any coin, token, stock, or security. This blog is intended for me to document my own personal analysis, charts, trading  decisions, and experiences. If you would like to learn more about trading, cryptocurrencies, and the resources I used to learn how to  trade and invest, see my previous post - LINK.