Shorting on Bitcoin: how we could have another number one crypto

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

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Warren Buffet and Bill Gates are calling for a big short on Bitcoin at the time that Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street players are opening desks to trade Future contracts on the cryptocurrency. 


Warren Buffet, a billionaire called “The Oracle of Omaha” due to his successful investment career, mainly in the past millennium, has a strong opinion against Bitcoin, pointing it out as a fraud and calling for its bad ending. We can say the guy is old, and maybe he is not interested,  but we have to remark he is a shareholder of major banks and credit card companies. That might make you visualize Buffet as the dictionary depiction of what Bitcoin was intended to replace.  


In December 2017 the CME and CBOE launched the first Bitcoin Futures and the crypto market went to the roof, all time high valuation for top cryptocurrency and projects, followed by The Drop, a market correction some might say, that took around 50% of the total market cap away and the recovery is still not even halfway there yet. The crypto market amassed a big community and investors, developing the market we see today, but a reason to set a bullish trend can be only justify with injection of new capital, aka, new investors. After the disappointing loss of 40% in the supposed fresh investment of cryptocurrency for all the newcomers in the last part of 2017, it is hard to sell the idea to new investors if there is nothing going on to recover the all time highs. Now Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that is mainly own by Warren Buffet, has set a desk to trade Bitcoin Futures right in Wall Street, making a sparkle of green in the crypto market, a reaction that is expecting big hedge funds come into crypto somehow. The problem with this is the Bitcoin Futures are not set in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, is just a bet in US dollars, that only speculate prices on the already high speculative and volatile crypto market. 


Goldman Sachs specifically said they are not currently holding Bitcoins and the contracts are settle in their own liquidity with fiat. Even though it was expressed they are opened to buy cryptocurrency in the future if the demands amidst it. Goldman set a trend of discussion among traditional investors and notable figures in the financial scene, cryptocurrency is again on the bull’s eye, and a tool for its destruction can come with it. Futures are bets, and today we know that only FOMO pumped the prices in December, because the real consequence of the CME and CBOE contracts was a massive short from the investment firms. Already someone as big as Bill Gates called it, he openly says that everyone should short on Bitcoin, and Goldman Sachs might be the platform for it, and doomed speculation that could take the price of Bitcoin into low levels that could reshape the entire crypto economy. 


When you hear people in the traditional financial system coming against bitcoin you hear only one reasonable argument that they all seem to agree with and use it to still sound legitimate smart: the value is on Blockchain. From Jamie Dimon to Jack Ma, they might not like Bitcoin but they definitely understand the importance of Blockchain technology and adoption. As seen in the short and fast evolution of cryptocurrency, all the focus is on the blockchain, the development of Blockchain technology, ecosystem and applications is shaping the industry around newer platforms and coins but the economics are still pegged to the original one, the Bitcoin, a proof of concept that remains as the most valued, with the less technical impact to today’s ambitions.


The crypto and blockchain industry is moving faster than anyone thought, the inflow of capital the Initial Coin Offerings brought last year, allowed to happen a flourishment in the applications of these technologies and now we are only tasting what the next big thing will be as the Internet’s paradigm. If banks and governments are against speculative crypto coins like Bitcoin, but in favor of the underlying technologie, isn’t it possible a big fall of Bitcoin as crypto gold standard and a new dawn for programmable blockchain currency to claim new thrones? I mean, what if Wall Street shorts on Bitcoin to a ridiculously undervalued drop, at the time that something like ETH or EOS is going up through a massive crypto migration to these kind of coins, like in the flipping in 2017 where Ethereum almost displaced Bitcoin in dominance. 


We are at a time where money is constantly moving and blockchain technology is causing the biggest migration of power since the oil revolution. The crypto market is a savage realm with a purist result, adapt to survive, quick and constant improvement has led to see a different picture of the economics every quarter in the last 3 years, models and predictions are mere speculations and wishes that goes a step behind of what actually the technology is building around here. Ethereum sparkled tons of ideas that raised millions of dollars, funded a new generation of startups transforming the we understand crowdfunding. An only a year after it already seems outdated in comparison with challenges presented now. That is momentum that EOS, NEO and other similar blockchain has in the present, a demand that has seen the value on this technology, but the instrument to reboost the economy is still focused in the first generation of crypto, instead of paying attention to the third generation blockchain, without mention the Cardano self labeled “fourth generation”.


Is it really fundamental to believe that Bitcoin has to be the number one standard for the cryptocurrency market? I can see how there might be better technology and less risky projects that can go further than Bitcoin, an asset that might still be own by someone or some of group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto, a crypto key that could do what Mt Gox sell off did to the Bitcoin prices but a hundred times worst. Bitcoin it is the more trusted because is the original one, a little mystified story tinted with revolutionary romanticism against the establishment. But that is not a real reason to do not see that the value of Bitcoin is only based in the community agreement on its capabilities to transform, but not within its utility as we can see now that cryptocurrency can be smarter and be more through what programmable blockchains and smart contracts has brought to the scene.


Is it fair to imagine a future where Bitcoin is not the number one crypto? I just want to start a conversation.

Thank you for reading.

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they all laughed at bitcoin; however Bill G acknowledged there is true innovation and value in blockchain;
as for bitcoin... it is as virtual as our current dollar or euro; if the markets will decide to give trust to bitcoin as e-gold then they laughed in vain, or maybe they laughed at it so they could get in cheap :)

Great article. I wish Warren Buffet would stop talking about crypto. He clearly doesn't understand blockchain technology or the value it brings.

Exactly...don't comment on what you don't understand.

The thing that most people neglect to realize is that Bitcoin is not a static technology. It evolves constantly and makes improvements from time to time through software upgrades. Network consensus decides its fate and has caused it to shift quite radically and will continue to push its evolution over time.

Sure Bitcoin in its current state is not fit to be a truly effective means of value transfer or currency but in the future maybe it won't necessarily have to be (bear with me). They could hypothetically create another settlement layer on top using Bitcoin ghost contracts similarly to how they do paper silver and gold contracts. The prospective coins to be mined could be either pre-sold or used as a remittance layer on top of the network through the use of tokenization (possibly on the ETH or EOS network). Remember that the whole point of Bitcoin's first use case is to be a means of value transfer.

If you can relegate that responsibility to a secondary pathway through cross-chain compatibility then you would lighten the load and possibly not even have to transact the BTC at all.

For example there is a civilization that would use giant boulder-like stones as a form of value transfer. Such a stone would be worth a house on the island perhaps or a whole herd of animals. The transfer of ownership of the stone would signify a transfer of value, however the stone would never have to move. Knowledge of such ownership would be passed on throughout the community.

Very well said @hotsauceislethal, upgrades on Bitcoin are possible, but we all saw how the last upgrade result was a split of chain. Cross chain interaction are for sure a mark to rethink the role of each crypto in the market.

This article has some interesting things to think about. thanks.

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Great post!
Thanks for tasting the eden!

Coins mentioned in post:

CoinPrice (USD)📉 24h📉 7d
ADACardano0.270$-13.89%-25.23%
BTCBitcoin8599.550$-6.56%-11.18%
EOSEOS15.112$-16.38%-11.63%
ETHEthereum681.983$-8.7%-13.21%
NEONEO65.466$-10.78%-22.34%

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