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RE: Will Bitcoin Surge Upward Again in the Near Future? CME Futures Price Curves Say “No”.

in #bitcoin • 7 years ago

A solid evaluation of the current trend. I have to agree with the data and say that the party is over, for now.

I think the range will be 11000-14000, with an eye on a break above 15500.

Cheers!

7 years ago in #bitcoin by
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     7 years ago 

    Thanks @abh12345, and nice to hear from you! First, I put the focus on "for now", and I keep in mind that we could wake up any day and find that some truly great news has dramatically changed the psychological landscape.
    I too am looking at the range you cite. I have not yet checked support zone formation; but a quick glance at the little chart at coinmarketcap.com suggests one is forming the 14000 area. So I'm getting ready to add to my holdings once I feel the disappointing downturn is sort of fully digested.

     Highly relevant to strategizing is the work of Prof. Adam Hayes at Cornell. He has some papers where he has built what he calls a "production function model" of bitcoin pricing. Basically, he tries to rationalize pricing from the viewpoint of the mining costs. John McAfee, who has many rigs (I hear) said on Youtube recently that it now costs $9,000 on average to mine one BTC. 
  Now, if we can make a good guess on how deep and widespread is the network-support strength of BTC, we could argue that 9,000 will be close to rock bottom (in contrast to zero, which was the case for the stocks I used own) .  
 If that's a good guess, then it becomes a fascinating foundation for  a strategy that ignores all the big swings **except** to add a little more to your holdings when we get in whistling distance of 9,000 (which 11,000 certainly is).
 This strategy has a fascinating implication: make sure you always have a stash of cash around to pick up stuff when people are "throwing it out the window".

 The **big**potential pitfall here is what the final set of USA regulations will look like. I think even the Big Boys are concerned on this question. Bitcoin may be unstoppable; but you still have to cross the crypto-to-fiat bridge to pay rent using your bitcoin riches.
Cheers!
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     7 years ago 

    Thanks for that, very interesting indeed. Anything around $9000, i shall remember that. I'm determined to own 1 of these!

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       7 years ago 

      Thanks for your encouragement, and TTYL!

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