Bitcoin, Ethereum Price Prediction and Return on Investment

There are a few things to consider before jumping into the Crypto Currency wild west. How to invest, how much to invest, whether to trade or not, how long to hold (or hodl) and when to take profits? Below I have shared a technique which everyone can use to help answer maybe a cuple of those questions and guesstimate a return on investment. 

First and foremost, and you have probably heard this a few hundred times already, but i'll say it again. Only invest what you can afford to lose and that is exactly my play. Well not exactly, but I should be able to survive comfortably. I may hide under a blanket and cry I few days :-) Saying that, I always side with scepticism and if at any point I i'm having a dell-boy moment, I think of a Matrix style EMP blast scenario, which could potentially switch the lights off at any time.

First thing I do is research the crypto currency in question. Look at growth in previous years, future supply, possible market cap and whether they are minable or not. Being a former miner, I know and appriciated the effort and technology that goes behind mining likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I will then take the weekly average growth of the previous year and half it, and half it again if required, until i'm left with the lowest possible average. You will see what I mean below.

So lets say I magically come up with a modest average weekly growth of 1% per week for 2017. This is how the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum would look from end of May to end of 2017.

The above is based on a 1% weekly increase. You can see Ethereum is highlighted green, this is because at the time of posting it was priced at $397 exceeding my 1% valuation of $230! Bitcoin was also doing well, even with it's recent pull-backs. I think I would be very happy ending the year on $2937 and $230 respectively.

Lets make it interesting and up our weekly average to a massive 2%. Let see how that plays out.

Again you can see Ethereum is still well over my $312 guesttimate! Surely there has to be a correction soon. Only time will tell. Bitcoin is just under $4k. I could probably treat myself to a spaa :-)

Right so you get the idea. Below I have shared my 4 year projection. I am looking to hold till at least the next Bitcoin halving. I will stick with my modest average of a 1% increase per week. 

Thats 1% weekly increase. I hear you say 2%, 3%! This is where it gets scary. 

To be honest I can't even begin to imagine a $25k+ Bitcoin and $2k+ Ether. I think if after 4/5 years, I would be ecstatic with $10k+ Bitcoin and $1k Ether. This is something which I personally see as feasible and a very very good return on investment.

I hope this article gave you some insight into the potential of Bitcoin and Ethereum, especially as we are only in the early stages of this revolutionary and potentially trillion dollar market. I personally will be holding till at least 2020, which is when the next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place. 

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