There is a really good Japanese card on the Dec. 31 that is worth watching if you are a boxing fan. Japan combat sports promoters always throw some big events at the end of the year. Its sorta like their Cinco De Mayo or Mexican Independence Day of combat sports if you are an American or Mexican boxing fan for a comparison.

This particular card is headlined by 108lb IBF title holder Milan Melindo (37-2, 16KOs) and 108lb WBA title holder Ryoichi Taguchi (26-2-2, 12KO's) in a rare unification fight in the lighter weights. In the co-main, 112lb WBO title holder Sho Kimura (15-1-2, 8KO's) defends against Toshiyuki Igarashi (23-2-3, 12KO's). Both good fights. The fight I'm interested in is the fight getting third billing on this night though.

The fight I'm recommending people consider betting on will be the fight between newly crowned 105lb IBF title holder Hiroto Kyoguchi (8-0, 6KO's) & former three-time title challenger Carlos "Chocorroncito" Buitrago (30-2-1, 17KO's).

Hiroto Kyoguchi, 8-0, 6KO's, Tokyo, Japan, ranked #4 by Ring Magazine & #6 by the Transnational Rankings

Hiroto Kyoguchi, 24yrs, has only been a professional boxer for a mere year and eight months and has already won a major world title. He had a 52-14 amateur record before turning pro in April of 2016. He reeled off six knockout victories all inside of three rounds in ten months over increasingly better foes. He won the OPBF belt in only his sixth professional bout. The OPBF being a long established belt that many a contender & prospect has won previous to doing bigger and better things. He defended the belt once going the twelve round distance for the first time over Jonathan Refugio (16-5-5 at the time) in April of this year. From there he got the call up to fight for the IBF strap vs the respected Jose Argumedo (20-3-1) who was on a 6 fight (4 by KO) win streak. Kyoguchi clearly beat Argumedo in a close competitive fight (judges had it 8-4x2 and 7-5 with Kyoguchi nabbing an extra point for dropping Argumedo late in the fight).

Carlos "Chocorroncito" Buitrago, 30-2-1, 17KO,s, Managua, Nicaragua, ranked #6 by Ring Magazine

"Chocorroncito" on the other hand is a 10 year seasoned vet in the game at a still young 26 years old. There are disputed reports of his amateur record, but they all seem to aim towards him having over 170 amateur fights and losing a mere five to eight of them. And if you did your math right that means Buitrago turned pro at 16 which is not uncommon in many Latin countries. One of the biggest names in the game today, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez turned pro at 15. Its also worth bringing up that "Chocorroncito" was trained by the Hall of Fame boxer Alexis Arguello for around a decade before he passed in 2009. "Chororroncito" is also a stablemate and has sparred countless rounds with until recently a P4P top 3 mainstay Roman "Chocolatito" Gonzalez. There is some really good pedigree with this kid.

Anyway on to his career. Upon turning pro in June 2008 Buitrago would win 27 fights (16KO's) before getting his first title shot. In Nov. 2013 he would venture to the Philippines to fight Filipino world title holder, Merlito Sabillo (23-0). The fight ended in a split decision draw (7-5, 5-7 and 6-6). I personally thought "Chocorroncito" deserved the nod there, but it was a close fight. In his next fight he'd get another title opportunity which again included traveling to his opponents turf. This time he'd fly to Thailand to fight Knockout CP Freshmart aka Thammanoon Niyomtrong (8-0, 5KO's) in Oct. 2014, who is now most people's #1 ranked fighter in this division. This was again a close back and forth battle where Buitrago would take his first loss, although disputed by many, losing 5-7 on all the judges cards. They would rematch in Feb. 2016, in Thailand again, with Knockout CP Freshmart winning a much wider decision (11-1, 9-3x2). Since that fight he's had 2 fights over nondescript opponents winning both, but he has been on the sidelines for the last 14 months since then awaiting this mandatory title fight to come his way.

As to how the fight matches up in the ring I believe Kyoguchi will likely be using his youth, confidence and aggression to take the fight to Buitrago and will likely use that to win rounds. He likes to come forward and he does still got some power even if he's gone the distance in his last two fights vs his best two opponents. His defense still leaves a lot to be desired and I think its often the case that promising guys tend to have so much success in their early career KOing guys that they naturally neglect or just don't show as much defense in the ring for the grander prize of their highlight video.

Buitrago is a guy confident in fighting off the backfoot and is a more measured, technically skilled guy. Buitrago has massive composure in the ring and if I worry about one thing in particular with that its that maybe he has too much composure and sometimes doesn't push the gas down hard and quick so loses momentum in a fight and likely close rounds. He's got a really good jab that'll likely play huge into him winning or losing this fight depending on how effective it ends up being or not being. He also gots a nice little sneaky and underused uppercut that I think has the potential to change the flow of the fight if not lead to the fight ending early if it lands and he's able to capitalize off it.

Alright with a little background from both sides this seems like it has the potential to be a nice competitive fight with a young, up and coming champion vs the grizzled hard luck veteran....right? Nope not according to the bookmakers. The sportsbook I use has Kyoguchi as a -950 favorite over "Chororroncito" at +560. I don't see this fight as that wide so I'm pulling the trigger here on this classic dog or pass bet. And don't get me wrong I think Kyogochi is favored to win here I just don't think he should be THAT favored to win.

To fully break it down the odds converted into percentages give "Chororroncito" a 15% chance to win. Personally I think this is a 65/35ish type fight. That means I'll only need to be right 16 times out of 100 with a fight like this to be profitable and if my 35% opinion on Buitrago's chances of winning are accurate I'd expect to have a 131% ROI lifetime on bets like this. I'd bet situations like this all day, every day if I could find them and be retired living in some upgraded Lord of the Rings castle in New Zealand inside of a year. Alas they aren't THAT common to come across so my New Zealand realtor is on standby.

That makes my recommendation for this fight 1 unit on Buitrago to win 5.6 units. I believe I'll be collecting on this enough to be profitable.

Merry Christmas and Happy Betting my friends!!!

STEEM IT PREDICTIONS TO DATE:

PREDICTIONS: 2

CORRECT: 2
INCORRECT: 0
PCT CORRECT: 100.0%

UNITS BET: 8
UNITS WON/LOSS: +7.08
ROI: 88.5%

MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS:
https://steemit.com/mma/@mikeymanifesto/mikey-manifesto-s-combat-sports-betting-predictions-for-dec-23-2017