wonp3 MIKEMAZZONE READS THE WAR ON NORMAL PEOPLE BY ANDREW YANG PART 3

https://bittubers.com/playlist/1006/2 For by unlike zone and I'm reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang why are so many malls and stores closing developments may have built too many of them that the main causes the rise of the commerce for particularly Amazon Amazon now controls 43% of total in commerce in United States is a market capitalization of $435,000,000,000 overall the commerce has been rising by $40,000,000,000 a year since 2015 which is now pushing traditional retail into extinction Amazon just bought whole foods to expedite their move into grocery delivery most everyone I know buys a lot of stuff on Amazon is virtually impossible for any brick and mortar retailer to compete against Amazon on price is because Amazon doesn't have to invest in storefronts and can focus on building an efficient delivery system at the highest volumes use of the other advantage Amazon doesn't even need to make money in its 20 years as a public company Amazon often has not turned up profits a number of years ago some financial types noticed and started in short and to stop saying Amazon doesn't make money and response and is on founder Jeff base OS stopped investing in anything new for a year and wrapped up profitability for the people betting against the stock were burned badly now no one bats against Amazon and stock prices over $900 per share making Jeff one of the richest people in the world jet is dedicating one billion dollars of his personal wealth to his space exploration company blue or Asian each year a friend of his joke to me that will it get Jeff to care about what happens on this planet one of these days for Amazon is known for its competitive some might even save ruthless practices in 2009 and they were trying to push diapers.com to the negotiating table so they discounted diapers to a point where no one was making money and worked in a button diapers.com or 545 billion debt a little while later for Adobe jet as a ruse has it out for local malls there saying that there will nonetheless be hundreds of thousands of people's or suffer from the demise of retail driven by IE Commerce giants like Amazon them all workers the people who like shopping at the mall the country workers who needed the mall's property tax to pay for their jobs the property owners near the mall and so on for hundreds of our communities are going to have giant holes lesson in them by progress that will disrupt thousands of lives and livelihoods in each and the victims are likely to be among the weakest in the labor markets retail workers are paid less than workers in most other industries and typically left in college degree where are they going to go for is not just the mall's little shops and restaurants everywhere are closing are probably saying empty storefronts around where you live and work right now the New York Times up and by the economic historian Louis time in detail the plight of towns in upstate New York and other places that have seen their retail sectors decline in offered some recommendations or how workers can readjust to the new economic reality main street exists but only as a luxury consumer experience with the answer two Merle downward mobility is to turn everyone into software engineers there is no hope today for the first time base to the Internet small town America and America can pull back money from Wall Street and big cities more generally true global freelancing platforms like up work for example Burrell and small town Americans can find jobs anywhere in the world using abilities and talents they already have of a receptionist can welcome office visitors in San Francisco from her home in New York its finger lakes there any commerce web sites like a tse and Appalachian were what worker can create custom prices and sell them anywhere in the world is a bed is a great summary of the general constructive thinking and recognizes that the retail sector will shrink in happily debunks the ridiculous that stern everyone into corners idea which is realistic for only a tiny proportion of displaced work workers if you did into the offers alternative suggestions for workers though their equally unrealistic and can only be offered by someone who hadn't tried any of the army of them up work primarily finds work for developers designers and creative's on a global scale asking a retail worker from small town America to log on and gets working assumes they have a scale to offer these global platforms are people offering their services from abroad who can price their time at it as little as $4.00 and our even for a college graduates getting work of these platforms is highly competitive doesn't pay very well in Carries no benefits offices in San Francisco have either on a parent's worst human beings as receptionists we don't have an avatar staffed by as human beings in small towns hundreds of miles away selling would work on and say is the kind of thing that would work for a handful of humans and is unlikely to feed your family on Everest Sellers income from ANSI contributes only 13% to their household help income and is intended as a supplement to traditional work 41% of Betsy Sellers who focus on their business fulltime get their Health Care through a spouse or partner and 39% are on Medicare or Medicaid or another state sponsored program is possible that some workers in towns with dying Retail Stores that sell the find menial jobs on their computers as telemarketers phone sex operators English tutors to Chinese kids or image classifiers to help train a im is not exactly an appealing feature though and long distance its low skill jobs are the most subject to automation in a race to the lowest cost provider most retail workers at least have the gratification of leaving home conversations with colleagues and customers getting a store discount and generally being a member of society the reason that even well meaning commentators suggest increasingly unlikely and tenuous ways for people to make a living is that they are trapped in a conventional thinking that people want people must read their Time Energy and labor for money as the only way to survive the stretch for answers because in reality there are none is assistance and scarcity model is grinding more and more people up preserving it is the thing we must give up first food preparation and service with the number three job in America the median hourly hourly wages $10.00 an hour with an ad fee annual average wage of $23,850 most of these workers have not attended college Food Service &Food prep and workers are not in immediate danger of replacement to the same degree as our call center workers and retail workers mom and pop restaurants are not changing their practices anytime soon and foodservice workers are generally so inexpensive that the incentives to replace them are modest the restaurant industry is facing headwinds due to lower foot traffic in many places more lunches eaten at desks the lunch depression high levels of competition the decline of made price restaurants and the rise of heat at home delivery services like blue apron the people anticipate Restaurants Holding up better than traditional retail still change is brewing I had lunch with a venture capitalist friends in San Francisco she told me an important story a company came to me with a software product that helps fast food workers can schedule for shifts more efficiently among multiple locations any given worker could be optimally assigned a shift across several nearby stores is seemed like a good idea that when I went to a couple fast food companies and I asked them if they were the use this kind of software the response worms were not trying to schedule are workers more efficiently with try to replace them all together to I didn't invest in that company instead I invested in a couple companies that make smoothies and pizza with robots and delivery she's not alone there is no of mechanized for a star in a lobby in San Francisco is named cored and you can text in your order and a robot can be set up in most any location I tried it and my Americano was delicious for about 40% less than its star books were in provides a more efficient cheaper an equally high or even higher quality product than a few Min Barr Reese to in the morning when you are running late to work in all you want is a quick cup of coffee these buses will be valuable after court in debuted Starbucks was forced to issue a statement saying that it didn't plan on replacing its 150,000 arista's fifth 5th some workers will be easier to replace than others for instance we all like fast food and drive through restaurant for their efficiency and do not mind the limited human interaction in fact 50 to 70% of fast food sales take place and thrive through windows in the United States Mcdonnell Spader won the most of us know and use two love there are 1 to 2 workers per location who take the order through the speakers to the wear those cool headsets these workers will be replaced by software in many locations in the next five years publicly traded fast foods from chains will be among the most aggressive on toppers of increased efficiencies because they have a scale resources and quarterly earnings pressures to maximize shareholder returns mcdonnell's just announce any experience of the future initiative that will replace cashiers and 2500 locations two starts the former ceo of Mcdonnell suggested that large scale automation is around the corner is cheaper to buy a $35,000 robotic arm that it is to hire an employee who was inefficient making $15.00 an hour bedding French fries he said while defending the current prevailing fast through rage of $8.90 the robot arm is only going to get cheaper and more efficient while the fast food wage is no place to go but up approximately four million workers worked in fast food if you've been through an Airport recently you might have noticed Mr. Us that have replaced servers with IP ads each to a recently opened restaurant chain as a whole role of Hyperion's for you to enter the order and then a series of lockers where your food appears it's a they've gotten rid of all the front of house workers for each so was recently named one of the most influential Branson the restaurant industry and it's here to stay all it takes is a few chains to bite the bullet enjoyed labor three efficiencies and the others will follow quickly Mckinsey estimates that 73% are through prep in service activities are automate a bowl for on the production and you can now use of three the printer to make hot pizza in 5 minutes they can be customized to particular orders the hex is bought call the shift three Deion will appear in selecting theme Parks and sports Arenas starting later this year just like the robot barista shift three guy is faster cleaner and more reliable than human workers only one person is needed to work the machine which can mix the composition and lay down the sauce and the toppings in 1 minutes for apparently it tastes great no more person in the back making pizzas by the oven there are companies now launching that are essentially pizzerias on wheels when they make the peace sign a special trucks on their way to you in anticipation of your order or the last mile there are now food delivery robust being used in Washington, DC and San Francisco they're essentially coolers on wheels the deliver food to your door or for around a dollar one company called starship technologies has 20 or so robust deployed that are ready learning their local terrain in Washington, DC which is officially made self driving robots Neagle on its sidewalks these robots will eliminate the need for many delivery people a friend of mine shaft tour of ski ran a chain of sandwich shops for a number of years is said to me are big as operational issue is that sometimes people just don't show up to work we pay significantly over the minimum wage but employee reliability is a recurring problem food prep and service jobs are going to remain numerous for a while to come in because of low cost and industry fragmentation but fundamentally most of the tasks are highly were Pettis if an ultimatum bowl companies with resources are going to continue to experience with new ways to reduce costs and we will see fewer and fewer workers in many restaurants over time also as regional economies week and restaurant in those regions will struggle and close fifth of clerical jobs retail jobs in Food Service jobs are the most common jobs in the country each category is in grave danger and set to shrink dramatically for yet they're not even the ones to worry about most the single most defining job in the automation story the one that scares even the most part nos observer is the number for job category materials transport also known as truck driving five factory workers and truck drivers you would have to have been asleep these past years not to after is that manufacturing jobs have been disappearing in large numbers for in 2000 there will be there were still a 17.5 million manufacturing workers in the United States than the numbers fell off the cliffs plumber in plummeting to fewer than 12,000,000 before rebounding slightly starting in 2011 charts of one more than five million manufacturing workers lost their jobs after 2000 more than 80% of the jobs lost or four million jobs arms were due two automation men make up 73% of manufacturing workers so this hate and working class men particularly hard about one in six working age men in America is now out of the work force one of the highest rates among developed countries would happen to these five million workers a rosy economist might imagine that they found new manufacturing jobs or were retrained and was killed four different arms or maybe they moved to another state for greener pastures what happened to these five million workers are rosy economists might imagine that they found new manufacturing jobs or were retrained and was killed for different jobs or maybe they moved to another state for greener pastures in reality many of them left the work force one department of labor survey in twenty's well founded 41% of displaced manufacturing workers between 2009 and 2011 were either still unemployed or dropped out of the liver market within three years of losing their jobs another study out of Indiana university found that 44% of 200,000 displaced transportation equipment and primary mid metals manufacturing workers in Indiana between 2003 and 2014 had no payroll record at all but 2014 and only 3% graduated from a public college or university in Indiana during that time. The the study noted her if you went back to school and relatively few seemed to avail themselves of a lot of the gov't programs available to assist displaced workers the manufacturing jobs that still exist require more education and technical skills as factories have become more advanced an automated jobs in manufacturing for people with regiment agrees grew by 32% after 2000 and even as overall employment in the sector was plummeting of course as we've seen most people don't have graduate degrees or even college or associates degrees and it is unrealistic for many to get them the recession led to this huge wiping out of one industry towns particularly in those places that were heavily dependent on the industrial war manufacturing economy says Stephen Glickman ceo of the economic innovation group were asking what's around the corner for them and we're seeing a shockingly low rate of new businesses they can become the new employers for those regions of the country how do the 40% of displaced manufacturing workers who don't find new jobs survive the short answer is that many become destitute and applied for disability benefits disability rolls shot up starting in 2000 rising by 3.5 million with the numbers increasingly increasing dramatically in Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania and other manufacturing heavy states the Michigan about half of the 310,000 river residents who left the workforce between 2003 and 2013 went on disability many displaced manufacturing workers is actually entered a new underclass of gov't dependents who have been left behind shirts E is a good indicator of what will occur when truck drivers lose their jobs the average age of truck drivers is 4994% are male and they are typically high school graduates driving a truck is the most popular job in 29 states there are 3.5 million truck drivers Nationwide trucks and drive themselves are already rolling out around the world self driving trucks to says Foley may delivery is in Nevada and Colorado in 2017 Rio Tinto has 73 and Thomas mining trucks hauling iron or 24 hours a day in Australia Europe saw its first convoys of self driving trucks cross the continent in 2016 in 2016 overbought the self driving truck company also for $618,000,000 and now employs 500 engineers to perfect than technology google spun off its self driving car company we know which is working on self driving trucks with the big truck manufacturers Daimler and full flow shoeshine and a venture capitalist at maven ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars says the self driving trucks will ride significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier highways the demands of semi trucks are much less complex than urban areas with fewer intersections and clearer road markings as any economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars Morgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168,000,000,000 per year saved in fuel 35 $1,000,000,000 reduced labor costs $70,000,000,000 you are accidents $36,000,000 reduced labor costs $70,000,000,000 fewer accidents $36,000,000 in increased productivity and equipments utilization $27,000,000,000 this enormously high incentive show drivers to the door that would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year switching to automated drivers would not only save billions but it also has the potential to save thousands of lives its ashes involving large trucks killed 3903 people in the United States in 2014 according to the national highway traffic safety administration and a further 110,000 people were injured more than 90% of the accidents were caused at least in part by driver inner driver fatigue is a factor in roughly one out of seven fatal accidents most of us when we were taught to drive growing up were told to avoid trucks on the highway is a reason for that's for Sony incentives to adopt automated truck driving our massive tens of billions of dollars saved annually plus thousands of lives there so large that one could argue is important for national competitiveness and human welfare than this happen as quickly as possible adding to the incentives incentives is that many freight companies report labor shortages because they can't find enough people willing to take on the physically demanding and punishing job of spending hundreds of thousands sitting in a confined space truck drivers spend 280 nights per year away from home staying in truck stops and motels and 11 hours per day on the road obesity diabetes smoking inactivity and high blood pressure are common with one study saying 88% of drivers and at least one risk factor for chronic disease many however will argue for the preservation of truck driving because they recognize just how problematic it would be for such a large number of uneducated male workers to be displaced quickly for taking even a fraction of the 3.5 million truckers off the road will have ripple affects far and wide is impossible to overstate the importance of truck drivers to regional economies around the country as many as 7.2 million workers serve the needs of truck drivers at truck stops niners motels and other businesses around the country for over 2000 truck stops around the country serve as dedicated hotel's restaurant grocery stores and entertainment house for truckers every day for if one assumes that needs trucker spends only $5000 a year on consumption on the road about $100 per week that some $17.5 billion economic it in communities around the country beyond the hundreds of thousands of additional job losses many communities may risk losing a sense of purpose without thousands of truckers coming through each day for for example in the Brister one out of every 12 workers 63,000 workers works and and supports the trucking industry fifth truck drivers do not see it coming fifth indeed when bloomberg's shift commission in 2017 asked truck drivers about how concerned they were about their jobs being replaced by automation the almost uniformly words concerned at all than reassure you it's coming the LAN must recently announced that tesla will be offering a free truck as of November 2017 must also proclaimed that by 2019 all new jazz laws will be self driving your car will drop you off at work and they will pick other people up and make you money all day until it's time to pick you up again must proclaimed this pro 100% happen is obvious that tesla trucks will eventually have the same self driving capabilities as their cars other and Thomas vehicle companies report similar timelines with 2020 being the first year of mass adoption is not just those driving trucks warren risk a senior official at one of the major rideshare and companies told me that their internal projections are that half of their rides will be given by autonomous vehicles by 2022 this as the potential to affect about 300,000 over and left drivers in the United States the replacement of drivers will be one of the most dramatic visible battlegrounds between automation and its human worker companies can eliminate the jobs of call centers where workers retail clerks fast food workers and alike with minimal violence and fuss truck drivers will be different right now the Federal government has said that it will allow autonomous vehicles in any states that permit them one industry report noted that the U.S. Dept of transportation's ad is throwing its full support behind of element of autonomous vehicles as a way to improve safety on our roadways in 2016 the government's has already committed $15,000,000,000 to set up a 35 mile stretch of highway outside Columbus for testing self driving trucks Arizona California and Nevada have begun allowing self driving car trials in their states and others will follow the truckers and the industry fight back back in the 1950s truckers were highly unionized with the teamsters being legendary in there a aggressiveness today only about 13% of U.S. truck drivers are unionized and 90% of the trucking industry is made up of small businesses with 10 or fewer trucks about 10% of truck drivers 350 thousand's are solo owner operators who own their own trucks the trucking companies have been pushing drivers to buy or lease their own trucks to reduce overhead he will happen in stages first there will be automated trucks with a human driver as a failsafe the technology will allow truckers to go beyond their current 11 hours per day on the road as the driver will be able to rest and do other things during long stretches increase the productivity of trucks and equipment and likely reduce the wages of truckers as the pay scale changes the next age will have convoys of trucks with a lead truck driver truck having a driver and the others following automatically which lowers wind resistance and fuel costs there will be docking stations outside urban areas where drivers were up will injure the trucks for the last 10 miles at some point as the industry becomes more and more automated truck drivers will realize that the combination of much more a fishing trips and lower need for labor will dramatically shrink their total implements those who have other options will flee the field but for many their opportunities outside of truck driving will be minimal and they know it's many RX military about 5% of Gulf War veterans 80,000 work in transportation in 2012 they will be proud and as for its what might happen when the 350,000 American truckers who bought or leased their own trucks are unemployed and angry all it takes is one out of 350,000 to lead the others that doesn't take a big leap of the imagination to imagine mass protests that could block highways sees up the economy and wreak havoc the best estimates for when this will unfold to between 2020 and 2030 that is right around the corner six white collar jobs will disappear two is an article written in 2017 about an earnings report for a jam company J.M. Smucker EPS estimates down for GM's smoker in past month over the past three months the consensus estimates has saved from $1.25 for the fiscal year analysts are expecting earnings are $5.75 per share a year after being $1.37 billion analysts expect revenue to fall 1% year over year to $1.00 and 35 $1.35 billion for the quarter or the year revenue was expected to come in at $5.93 billion a year over year drop in revenue in the fourth quarter broke a ¾ streak of revenue increases the company has been profitable for the last eight quarters and for the last four profit has risen year over year by an average of 16% the biggest boost for the company came to the third came in the third quarter when profit jumped by 32% for notice anything awful about the peace the pros isn't going to win any awards is perfectly understandable as it turns out the article was written by a I a company called narrative science produces thousands of earnings previews and stock updates for forms and the Of sports articles for fantasy sports sites in real time the company's boss won't be winning any pulitzer's in investigative reporting but in the coming years the quality of a I'm producing writing will go from acceptable two very guard and those journalists to write a routine stories like this will find their jobs increasingly at risk we tend to think of automation is displacing blue collar workers with jobs that involve basic repetitive skills the truth is a little bit more complicated than that the important categories are not white collar vs. blue collar or even cognitive skills vs. Manual skills the real distinction is routine vs. number chain routine jobs of all stripes are those most under threat from a ion automation and time more categories of jobs will be a factor and doctors lawyers accountants wealth advisers traders journalists and even artists and psychologist who perform routine activities will be threatened by Automation Technologies some of the jobs requiring the most education are actually among the most likely to become obsoletes some of the stretch and workers like investment advisers may find themselves surprise to be on the chopping block after supporting the profit growing potential of automated technologies a friend of mine does a radiologist at Columbia university in told me a story about how the chair of his department was recently invited to general lecture take part in a demonstration perfume is where compete with computers to read patient films GE invited doctors with decades of experience the tops in their field to see whether the doctors can more effectively diagnose tumors based on radiology films than any computer guess who won the computer one quite easily in turns out a software program can see a shade of gray on a film that is invisible to the human eye the computer can also draw on millions of films to compete if worth to compare it with a much larger reference set than even the most experienced and Dr. ET we are entering an age of super intelligent computers that can take any complex data sets every legal precedents radiology film as a price financial transaction actuarial table they spoke alike customer review resume bullets facial expression and so on reed said the size it's and then perform tasks and make decisions in ways that are as good as or better than the smartest human in the vast majority of cases to think that this will not dramatically change the way organizations perform work in the employment of people is to ignore the way companies operates companies are paid to perform certain tasks not employ lots of people increasingly employing lots of people will mean that you're behind the times during my brief tenure as a corporate Atty. when I started my cure your back in 1999 a practice at Davis Polk in Wardwell were the top firms in the world when we were assigned a deal the first thing we would do was look for whatever deal president we had in a system that was most similar used to joke about how much of what we did was finding and replacing terms in a contract there's a lot of repetitive functioning in what we consider high and professional jobs what I call intellectual Manual labor a Dr. Boyer accountant and dentist or pharmacist would go through years of training and then do the same thing over and over again in slightly different variations much of the training is to socialize us into people who can sit still for long periods and behave and operate consistently and reliably we wear uniforms either white coats or business suits you are highly rewarded by the market. A lot and treated with respect in difference for a truly are experience in practice basically we are prop to become more like machines or will never be as good as the real thing charts the Federal Reserve categorizes about 62,000,000 jobs as routine or approximately 44% of total jobs the fed calls the disappearance of these middle raids middle skill jobs john polarization mean we will be left with low and service jobs in high and cognitive jobs and very little in between the trend goes hand in hand with the disappearance of the American middle class and the sterling, startlingly high income inequality in the United States and will stop they're and I'm reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang and unlike zone things for this and DOT E D one