Part One: In which we find the price history of Bitcoin could predict the next big crash

Since the days it was worth cents, bitcoin goes through a very distinctive pattern. It increases ten fold and then plummets to a fraction of it's value. Now, let me tell you why it will happen again soon.

"The past should serve as a lesson to the future, in order we do not repeat the same mistakes"




Early days of Bitcoin (2010-2012)

We go back to the year after Satoshi proposed the Bitcoin protocol, and it's earliest adoption. Bitcoin wasn't worth much, but over a course of two years, it rose steadily - cent by cent, to the value of a few dollars. The accumulation period was over, and hype set in. It took bitcoin to stellar heights within a single month, reaching 30$, but corrected rapidly and surely, setting the stage for a year long bear market. New support level was found at 7$.
Please notice the ten fold increase in the price, followed by a crash




The crash of 2013

As we continue our journey, we find ourselves at the start of 2013. The support levels were reached at previous highs, and a new accumulation period began. Again the price exploded, soaring to the 200$ mark, increasing the value ten fold, only to crash and form a new support at the 100$ mark.




Mt. Gox crash (2013-2014)

The crash of Mt. Gox, which at time represented 75% of the daily trade volume, saw Bitcoin loose 80% of its value. The bear market that followed lasted for two years. I would like you to pay attention to the red square representing the previous ten fold increase and the subsequent drop. The price tipped 1000$ shortly, rallying new support at the 200$ mark.  

Bitcoin price 2010-2017

This chart represents bitcoin from its earliest days, to the present moment. I have shown three major events with the previous images, events that saw bitcoin skyrocket in price, only to subside and form a new support level. Imagine please the horror on the faces of people invested in bitcoin. Each time, overnight so to speak, it became almost worthless.

Observe also, how from today's point of view, those past events seem insignificant to those of us who were not involved back then. From our perspective, it's nothing but exponential growth.

Contemplate now, just for a moment, of some future investor, someone like you and me today, looking at the bitcoin crash of 2017/2018. It would seem to that person, as it seems to us today, that nothing could hinder it's growth (to the moon anyone?)





For those of you reading this, writing this post took far more time than I anticipated. The story will continue with an update in the following days.  I do expect bitcoin to increase in value tenfold, more than once, in the following years.
But let us be realistic: We have seen the ten fold increase from the previous crash support level. All that is needed for the next big crash, is a catalyst, which I believe has been identified. More on that in the next part.

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Ante