The AFC South: NFL 2019 Week 6 Preview
Denver Broncos(1-4) @ Tennessee Titans (2-3)
The Titans head to Mile High City with new kicker Cody Parkey, following last weeks disaster of Cairo Santos missing four kicks and ultimately losing out to the Bills 14-7. Mariota is the only QB to start every game without throwing an interception or fumble however, the Titan’s offense ranks 24th in points per game (19.6) and yards per game (308). That’s thanks to a shockingly weak O-line that ranks 31st, giving up sacks at a rate of 13.5%.
The Broncos defense ranks 5th against the pass rush allowing 202-yards per game so expect Derrick Henry to be busy in this one, with an offense that rushes the 6th most in the league (46%). This one will be interesting if the Titans go to the air. Denver has the lowest sack rate in the NFL at 3% however the Titans are ranked second-last at defending the sack conceding at a rate of 13.5%.
In the red-zone the Titans are 10th (62%) at converting TDs, an area the Broncos are struggling to defend against and are 7th worst in the NFL. Mariota is extremely efficient in the red-zone and this could be the difference in the game.
The Broncos are on a high after winning their first game of the season last week against the Chargers forcing 3-takeaways. Prior to last week they could not force a takeaway in their first four games. Despite their struggles, the defense still ranks 10th conceding just over 21 points per game but have been let down by a lacklustre offense ranking 26th. The Titans defense ranks 5th in both points per game (15) and sack rate (8.6%) however their issues at defending the red-zone, ranked 4th-worst, may present an opportunity for the Broncos. This game may possibly come down to who can convert best in the red-zone.
Houston Texans (3-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
The Chiefs were stunned last week against the Colts and will be looking to rebound at home to the Texans. Patrick Mahomes has led the 1st best passing offense (356-yards p/g) and will line-up against the 8th worst secondary (270-yards p/g) and 3rd most targeted (40 passes a game).
The Chiefs’ success in part comes down to their third-down conversion (53.2%) and red-zone TD conversion (73%) ranked 1st and 2nd respectively. Kansas ranks 4th at protecting the QB with a sack rate of 3.5% however will need to beware of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus who have a combined nine sacks and five forced fumbles.
The Texans have had trouble on the offensive end protecting Deshaun Watson ranking 29th at a sack rate of 10%. It’s phenomenal that Watson has led the team to an 11th best passing offense. Carlos Hyde & Duke Johnson have also performed exceptionally well with Houston 10th best at the rush. The offense ranks 53.23% 1st in the NFL at third-down conversions and their ability to keep the ball rolling will keep them in this one.
The Texans are the 5th least targeted against the rush and are ranked 12th overall whereas the Chiefs rank 25th at rushing. If the Texans can keep Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy quiet this game could become completely one dimensional and leave us with a showdown between the Texans secondary and Chiefs receivers deciding this one.
New Orleans Saints (4-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)
The Saints are flying high and will head to TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jags. Jacksonville are defensively strong and are ranked 8th against rush (138) and 11th against the pass (255). The Saints are the 3rd most accurate team at throwing the ball at 71% and the resurgent Teddy Bridgewater will feel somewhat safe throwing into a secondary ranked 30th for intercepts at a rate of 0.6%. He’ll need to be mindful of the Sacksonville pass rush ranked 7th sacking at a rate of 8.5%.
Gardner Minshew has played out of this world in place of Nick Foles and may have showed enough to be the Jags franchise QB of the future. He has led the team to 11th best at passing (255-yards) and the 6th best overall offense (393-yards). Despite Fournette’s earlier struggles this year running the ball, he has exploded in the last couple games including a 225-yarder against Denver, and is now the 3rd ranked running back in the league.
This ones set to be an extremely close one but the difference may be the Saints pass rush that sacked Jameis Winston six times last week and are ranked 6th with a sack rate of close to 9%.
