Tom Lee: "Altcoin Bear Market Largely Over"
The pain for altcoin investors is largely over, at least according to Tom Lee.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors put out a report this morning saying that according to past trends, much of the declines in the altcoin markets are largely behind us.
What makes him think this?
According to Fundstrat's research, altcoin bearish periods last roughly the same length of time as their bullish periods.
What does this data mean exactly?
Well, In the 3 previous bear markets for altcoins, they lasted roughly the same amount of time as their preceding bull markets.
This most recent bearish period, which saw altcoin prices drop by roughly 75%, has now gone on for 64 days, while the bullish period prior lasted 62 days.
That would indicate that we are getting near a point of this bearish phase finally running out of "steem". (see what I did there?)
According to Fundstrat, this data would indicate that "the likelihood the current drop has ended is high."
There is a caveat to all of this...
One would assume that since the selling is over, it's time for prices to go back up, right?
Not so fast.
Fundstrat's research also shows that once a bearish period ends, there is sort of a "purgatory period", where prices stop doing down, but they don't really go up either.
It's basically a consolidation period.
Based on past trends, this consolidation period lasts anywhere from 70 to 231 days.
A big range I know.
Fundstrat suggests that this current period we now find ourselves in will likely last for roughly 150-175 days.
Which would mean a bull market for altcoins wouldn't really start again with any kind of momentum until roughly the August/September time-frame.
The reason Fundstrat suggests that this period will fall in the latter area of that range is due to the current regulatory uncertainty that is hanging over the altcoin market.
In their mind, we should have a mot more clarity on the regulatory environment by August/September, which would coincide nicely with the latter part of the normal consolidation period for altcoins.
Possible Seasonality at play?
Interestingly enough, Steem and the entire altcoin markets saw a big boost in the late Spring and early Summer of 2017.
They made their lows in the middle of March and saw big gains in May and June.
(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/)
Will history repeat itself this year or will prices stay mostly subdued till August/September like Fundstrat suggests?
Either way I would expect prices to be much higher than current levels at some point this year.
Stay informed my friends.
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Another good post. Keep it up!
I am ready for the next “SURGE”
Bring it on 🧐
Past bear markets in crypto took a long time to recover from because the ecosystem was much smaller and institutional participation was almost non-existent, but this time around that's not the case.
The whole world is talking crypto at the moment, and lots of speculative money is waiting to enter!! This makes all the difference in my opinion.
"Past results do not indicate future results"
That statement most likely applies here, though it is a fun talking point never the less.
I think you are exactly right though, the current crypto environment is different than anything else it has every experienced in its history.
I think once we get some clarity on regulations and even taxes, we are going to see a massive run again, as long as those regulations aren't too heavy-handed of course. :)
Exactly, the world is waking up to crypto but I don't think we will have a huge boom in capital flow, it might be quite steady.
I am not that positive to be honest. I think we should wait for several days before claiming it.
Good point. Patience can definitely be rewarded here... but investor sentiment is itching to hit the by button for sure. This past period was a great time to trim the fat from portfolios and focus on a few solid projects, like Substratum, or Cardano, in my opinion.
Title: good news
Text: Not so good
All depends which altcoins you have. But in general it makes sense.
This is called the HURRY UP AND WAIT SYNDROME.
Wen cryptos go up they usually go up very fast and then they take forever to correct until the next wave which may come around the 14 of may or even sooner.
I wish all of you massive profits !!
That's great. So finally we are going to see good days again.
It is also an indication to put your investments now on some coins you belive in so that you could get full profit when we see this bull market.
I can see 150 days.
Altcoins are forming new supports and doing small rallies. Coupled with volume spikes, it is a clear sign of accumulation.
Buying at these levels = preparing to get at least +1000% in a few months 😉
I acquiesce about the consolidation/accumulation duration before the usual crazy rally.
I think anybody that is in the altcoin field since a few years already spotted those patterns.
Hope it turns out to be true!