Will Airbnb alternatives stand a chance?

Is there room in the market for a new listing website like Airbnb, HomeAway & VRBO? One with a good guest-host relationship? And one that won't charge guest service fees (up to 12%) & hosts commissions (up to 15%)?

I think yes - but it will take a lot.

The current OTA culprits (HomeAway, Airbnb, Booking.com, VRBO, TripAdvisor etc) are constantly walking a tight rope. I'll explain...

OTAs want to make more money

OTAs are trying to make money. To make more money, they want to do two things:

1. Growth

In order to grow, OTAs need to provide an awesome guest experience. They do this via building a variety of inventory, making the process seamless and offering trust (cancellation policies).

They are all in competition with one another. Who can provide the "best" guest experience wins more guests, which attracts more inventory which in turn attracts more guests which makes more money!

2. Squeezing more money from existing customers

Alternatively, to make more money, OTAs can squeeze more money from guests (guest service fees) and from owners & managers (% of booking or % of payment).

It's a fine line between how much you can squeeze out of owners / managers in return for an amazing guest experience

OTAs are walking tightrope

For the two reasons above, OTAs are walking a tightrope with hosts and guests.

Guests

OTAs are increasing guest service fees (presumably to increase profits & fend off competition), which at some point will reach a tipping point.

A tipping point where guests realise they can save so much money booking direct, it will no longer make sense to use OTAs for their easy-to-use & trustworthy service - and by this time it will be easy and frictionless booking direct.

Owners & managers

The problems are amplified with hosts and managers. They've got to deal with increasing commissions, reduced guest communication, potentially less bookings because of service fees & ramped prices and less control over their own business.

Again, these issues will reach a tipping point, where following the OTA path will no longer make sense.

The final straw

How long can OTAs keep up this balancing act whilst trying to make more money? The question is, how far can they squeeze both sides before something explodes.

If they acted in the best interests of both parties and not themselves, this wouldn't be a discussion... my answer would be no - but that's not the case.

Is there a listing website that could do it?

Currently, my answer is maybe - because as you quite rightly said they will just sell to a larger corporation and we will be back to square one.

There needs to be a system entirely run by the owners and managers with no intermediaries.

What if we built a decentralized Airbnb?

How about a decentralized Airbnb? One where everyone controls their data and bookings with extremely low fees? Obviously, this model works for any marketplace which acts as an intermediary and takes fees, like Uber.

One major barrier is marketing. If no one knows about you, there would be no guests, no bookings and no owners (the supply). That's where micro fees & a potential ICO could help!

I'd love to hear your thoughts about this possibility?