ADSactly Tech News - The Age of Self-Driving Cars is Rapidly Approaching!
ADSactly Tech News: The Age of Self-Driving Cars is Rapidly Approaching!
Have you ever wondered what the future of transportation will look like? Movies have shown flying cars, electromagnetic trains and all other sorts of futuristic transporation possibilities but which of these epic visions of a future reality will manifest as reality first?
In regard to future transport one of the most likely technological upgrades which we will probably see first is autonomous driving. In only five years the technology behind this futuristic prediction has moved from “maybe possible” to “definitely possible” to “inevitable” to “how did anyone ever think this wasn’t inevitable?”
In fact, there are a ton of large scale auto manufacturers actively competing to perfect the technology required to bring a future of driverless cars about.
Companies like Waymo (a spinoff of Google’s self-driving car project) have been hard at work trying to be the future industry leader in this field. They seemed like they were closing in on a complete monopoly in regard to autonomous self-driving cars until a few big names popped up to give them a bit of stiff competition. I'm talking about companies like Lyft and Uber who would love to trade their expensive human drivers for automated driverless shuttles.
Its not only car companies working towards building this future, large corporations like Intel, IBM, and Apple are also looking to get in on the action as well! There are a lot of components in creating autonomous vehicles and many startups are positioning themselves applying for new patents that involve laser sensors, mapping software, and control center configurations responsible for managing future fleets of self-driving cars.
When I talk about driverless cars, I'm not actually talking about the future. Well, I am but this topic strongly relates to the present because believe it or not, some of these cars have already hit the road! Driverless cars are already prowling the streets of California and Michigan, Paris and London, Singapore and Beijing.
There is a lot of speculation at the moment that driverless tech has the possibility of adding $7 trillion to the global economy and save hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few decades. Personally I feel very conflicted about this new potential future in which driverless cars dominate the roads and I must accept the fact that I'm powerless and completely dependent on this new technology to get me to my destination safely!
Maybe its a good thing, maybe not. A big fundamental shift will take place if this new driverless car reality comes to fruition. Firstly, it will completely devastate the auto industry, gas stations, drive-thrus, taxi drivers, and truckers. Uber and Lift drivers will have to re-enter the job market putting further strain on the unemployment rate. Sure, stockholders of the companies that introduce these new vehicles will prosper but there will be a lot of people out of a job on the other hand. I'm not saying this is going to be a terrible reality but I think we need to consider both sides of the coin carefully. Do we want to support this technology or not?
It’s worth remembering that when automobiles first started rumbling down manure-clogged streets, people called them “horseless carriages.” The moniker made sense: Here were vehicles that did what carriages did, minus the hooves. By the time “car” caught on as a term, the invention had become something entirely new. Over a century, it reshaped how humanity moves, and thus how (and where and with whom) humanity lives. This cycle has restarted, and the term “driverless car” will soon seem as anachronistic as “horseless carriage.” We don’t know how cars that don’t need human chauffeurs will mold society, but we can be sure a similar gear shift is on the way.
The above statement makes a good point about change. We may not be ready for new technologies but eventually humanity and society changes with it and adapts to a new way of doing things. When it comes to driverless technology I don't see how its much different than what was stated above.
The driverless car can indeed be compared to the horseless carriage. Older generations will have a much harder time coping with this new reality while younger generations who are much more comfortable with technology considering the fact they have grown up with smart phones and high tech gadgets will certainly be more open to accepting driverless cars as a simple upgrade to modern transportation.
Image Source: The New York Times
So what exactly will the future hold? Do you think self-driving cars will actually become the new norm?
It's important to keep in mind that an autonomous vehicle isn't simply an all in one device but rather a system, a collection of components applied to accomplish the task that a driver would traditionally be given. Another question we may want to ask is when exactly will self-driving technology be ready?
Well, according to the recent research I've conducted around this topic, the hardware required to complete the task has already been developed and tested. Cameras and radars are already cheap and robust enough to build into mass-market cars.
A more expensive component required in creating a driverless car is that of the laser-shooting lidar which is still very expensive but as you can imagine large companies are quickly racing to bring the cost of this component down as it represents one of the last pieces of the puzzle. Then you have the brain, the processor that will be required to handle all the complex computations of getting a car to its destination safely. As a result, chipmakers like Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia are working hard to reduce power requirements for these rolling supercomputers.
So what does all this mean? Well, as a community we need to ask the hard questions around self-driving cars. The first question I think that we may need to ask is, do we really want to see a future in which we are completely dependent on automation to get us to our destination safely? If we all agree that self-driving cars are good and that this technology should be incorporated into our everyday lives we must further ask to what extent do we want to see it implemented?
One thing I've learned from writing technology articles is the future tends to come whether you want it to or not. However, I do believe we have the ability as intelligent human beings to direct to an extent how the future is implemented... We do have the power as a collective to stop large fundamental shifts from happening and the key is in organizing the masses, coming to an agreement together and then taking action!
What do you guys think about self-driving cars? Do you think we will see these vehicles on our streets in the near future?
Lets talk about this before it fully becomes reality!
Thanks for reading.
Authored by: @techblogger
In-text citations sources:
The WIRED Guide to Self-Driving Cars - Wired
Image Sources: The Sun, Google, Wired
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Thank you!
I have had a driving licence since 1972. The novelty of manually controlling my own vehicle is beginning to wear off.
Bring it on!
I'm anticipating this future of driverless cars will be quite exciting. Like living in a sci-fi movie and to think it'll happen in our lifetimes is pretty cool.
less accidents too!
I work in the auto industry. First at GM in manufacturing an then with 3 tier 1 suppliers. I follow technology for a living as an innovation manager for the company I work for. Here's my beef: Tech companies are good at creating a vision of a future and then repeating it until they get others to believe it. There timing is always woefully overstated. Then you have one of the most competitive markets in the world start to hedge their current business by investing massive amounts into R&D to try to ensure the threat from all the new entrants won't put them out of business. There will be a hundreds of billions of dollars wasted on this effort. And, many of these companies can't afford the investment dollars, but can't afford not to make the investment. Trust me, the next market downturn will see car companies go bankrupt again.
So what needs to be solved to actually move to autonomous vehicles:
-Laws. Governments around the world need to define who is liable for what when something goes wrong and someone dies. The conversation has barely begun.
-Actual technology that can be implemented into mass produced vehicles. As mentioned, LiDAR is large and completely out of line with cost requirements. First, look at the picture of the LiDAR system on top of the car shown in this article. Do you think aerodynamics have a place in a functional car? Do you think you would have some wind noise issues, some high speed induced vibrations? Do you think an automobile needs to efficiently move it's weight with least drag forces? LiDAR needs to shrink by a factor of 100. And the cost needs to scale accordingly.
-Automobiles are one of the most costly consumer products and one of the worlds most competitive markets. It's really hard to design and develop and mass produce automotive components and vehicles. The vehicle costs cannot be jacked up $7,000-$10,000 per vehicle. Automobiles are price elastic, meaning if you raise their price, in general, the demand craters. I believe it was in S. Korea where the local government incentives for electric vehicles came off recently. The sales crashed to almost zero.
-There is an assumption that is made but rarely talked about. Autonomous vehicles assume they will be electric vehicles or perhaps fuel cell. There needs to be a massive leap in battery technology and charging to enable range and charge time to be radically improved. And there needs to be massive capacity to build batteries for all the proposed cars. Last I read, there are well over 100 electric vehicles that have been announced. Good luck with charging infrastructure and batteries capacity.
-Software and electrical systems need to be secure from the rotten people of this world intent on doing bad things.
So in summary, we may have technology that can function today for an autonomous vehicle. But we are years away from solving these massive issues. I was at CES this year and attended the Automotive conference sessions. I was shocked by the arrogance of the tech companies. I most shocked by NVDA. Someone asked a question and the executive said: "People like to talk about ethical dilemmas in autonomous vehicles. They don't exist. We will never have to make a choice about hitting a tree or hitting a child. Our technology sees 360 degrees. So we will never be in that situation." Ummm. I'm quite sure he will be proven wrong. The technology will always need to make these decisions. But he got points for his effort on trying to manipulate the market...
very nice post! ))
It really does amaze me how quickly this technology has come to fruition.
Personally, I'm quite looking forward to Teslas becoming more and more affordable.
Oh I would love a Tesla!! Who wouldnt!!
I really wouldnt want a fully automated car though. I LOVE driving! I would miss it so much. Plus im not a very good passenger. For some reason I always get motion sickness if im not in the drivers seat. Sucks.
I think that eventually, It may be illegal to manually drive a vehicle. We may be few years away from that yet, but I can see it happening.
You have the option to upvote my memes while you're on board inside your car--if you feel like bored and nothing else to do.
For sure. I'm hoping the regulatory impediments are minimal. I'd love to be actively using this tech in 5-10 years. It would be absolutely life changing.
i think so
im in full agreement there! although bringing it down to 35,000 with the model 3 is getting pretty close to ideal! cant wait to get my tesla ..someday!
Nvidia is doing big things as well. They are heavily involved in this field and growing yearly.
If we actually create viable self-driving cars, it'd be a huge paradigm shift. Uber is going to be a top 3 tech company.
Goodbye morning commute. Can't wait to be able to sit back and do stuff while riding.
i mean tesla already has the auto pilot feature out on the road. its definitely happening though it will be a while until most auto manufacturers have adopted the tech.
uber already is! and yes it will grow more! although many other companies are competing to pave the way
Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche stated last Friday that the want to put the first robe-taxis on the streets in the early 2020s. But its seems as if law and regulation are the greater obstacle that technology.
Yeah, I think the tech is pretty good right now. If they actually were able to implement it on any grand scale, the machine learning speed would be hugely helpful towards perfecting the tech. Regulation is likely to be a huge hurdle though.
I already worked in this kind of researched and yes this cars already exist. The city where I live is one of the first cities in Germany where autonomus cars can drive for testing.
The problem right now is that the technology is not advanced and cheap enough to produce it in masses. Probably we will see first a self driving bus before the cheap self driving car, because for public transportation the mane cost is the personal.
Yeah, I'd be cool with that. That way no crazy people can attack bus drivers too!
I think you have two topics under discussion: Will we eventually rely on automated transportation almost exclusively? I think that's an easy answer.
It'll take a generation at least. Young people are already living with the reality of Uber and not owning your own transportation is becoming ordinary. This is one of those 'bottom up' happenings.
The other question may be 'Do I like it?'. Personally, that is also an easy answer. I have spent my life going other than the masses, and I'll be sad to see that not be readily available.
You are correct. The shift will be at least as fundamental as the move from animal powered transportation. My grandfather bought his first car in 1929 and the trend that looked to last for centuries lasted less than one.
Very nicely thought out and written article. Thank you.
I'd love the extra time. I think road trips would probably become more common. If you could get a comfy cab in a car and hang out in the back while it drives I think more people would opt to go on cross country trips. Especially if the fuel is cheap.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning have come to stay but there are a few issues we will have.
First challenge will be that of the labour market. A lot of people will lose their jobs and fall back into the labour Market. This will bring in lots of issues for the future but my advice would be that we all should look at the future of the particular skill we depend on today and see how it will change in the future so we can adapt to it now.
Second issue will be security. If someone hacks into our car and collects data. This data can be analyse to give information about our movement and who knows what the hacker wants with it. So I ask, is this technology a blessing or a curse?
Hacking is a huge concern. It seems that the people who create networking capability in every day objects are not doing due diligence on security.
Am planning on putting an article on that very soon. Every individual should be aware at least in little ways how vulnerable he or she is to cyber attacks. And should know of a few ways to protect what he has.
You do have a point. One more computerized item to be hacked. Probably end up with secret cameras inside them too to spy on people. Thanks to Edward Snowden we all know how the NSA loves to eavesdrop 🙄
It therefore bring the concern that the more powerful a tool is, the more dangerous it can turn if misuse.