Programming Diary #29: Imagining the "value per feed" curation model

in Steem Dev2 days ago (edited)

Summary

This post describes recent programming activities, primarily focused on new features for the Steem Curation Extension. These activities included extending the curator's information overlay and adding a capability to show or hide resteemed posts.

In my opinion, one of the key improvements from the curator's overlay is the addition of a value per feed metric, which is somewhat analogous to "pay per click" or "pay per view" in traditional social media. Although there are known problems with this metric, it creates an incentive for authors to grow their audience, and it provides curators with a simple piece of information to evaluate whether the blockchain's resources are being allocated efficiently.

Finally, the concepts of "feed-reach" and "value per feed" open up the possibility for a next generation voting service that will align participant incentives with value creation for the blockchain.

Background

Steem Curation Extension

In my previous Programming Diary post, I discussed the addition of a new overlay with information for curators in the Steem Curation Extension.

As you're likely aware, this browser extension has been around for a couple of years, but until recently it was limited in function to just highlighting posts that are participating in Steem's default Visibility as a Service programs with @null beneficiaries or post promotion. Recently, with help from @moecki, the extension was also updated to display an account's voting power in the condenser profile menu.

And in the previous programming diary post, I stated this goal for the coming two weeks:

I can already see that my time is limited for the next two weeks, so I'm only going to set myself one specific goal for this interval, and that is to start displaying information about the author and their reach in the Steem Curation Extension. We'll see how much progress I can make.

It turned out that I had more time than I anticipated, and I made much more progress on this than I had expected (as seen here, here, and here). More about that later, but first we need to bring in some additional background.

In addition to displaying some information for curators, I was also able to add a toggle to show/hide resteemed posts. There will be more on this below.

Follower network strength

I have another extension out there called the Steem Follower Checker, which returns a value that's intended to provide information about the strength of a particular Steem account's follower network. Basically, as described here, here, and here it's based on the number of followers and the median follower reputation with some adjustments for the account age.

Importantly for today's post, this scoring method can also (probably) be used to assess the strength of a community's subscriber network.

Semantic versioning

I noticed a github option to create a release, so with all of the recent changes, I thought it might be appropriate to do so, but github warned to learn about semantic versioning and the help link that they provided wasn't very useful in this context. So, last night I asked a bunch of AI assistants how to apply semantic versioning in this context. Answers were similar, but I think Claude's was the best:

Me: Can you explain semantic versioning to me in the context of a browser extension? I'm not sure how backwards API compatibility applies in this context. I'm not really making an API.

I have a browser extension that executes a content script on top of the steemit.com web site (and any other web sites that run the "condenser" software). In addition to the HTML & JavaScript on the web site, it also pulls in data from Steem blockchain API endpoints, and from the 3rd party SteemWorld API.

When I make my first release, what should I use for the version number, and when should I update the major/minor/patch values for future releases?

Claude: Let me explain semantic versioning (SemVer) in the context of your browser extension.

Even though you're not creating a traditional API, your extension still has interfaces it depends on:

  1. The structure of steemit.com's HTML/JS (the "condenser" software)
  2. The Steem blockchain API
  3. The SteemWorld API

For a browser extension, here's how you might apply SemVer (MAJOR.MINOR.PATCH):

Start with version 1.0.0 for your first stable release. Then:

MAJOR (1.x.x): Increment when you make changes that could break functionality due to:

  • Adapting to major changes in the website structure
  • Handling breaking changes in the Steem or SteemWorld APIs
  • Removing or significantly changing features that users rely on

MINOR (x.1.x): Increment when you add functionality in a backward-compatible way:

  • Adding new features
  • Adding support for new parts of the website
  • Adding usage of new API endpoints
  • Deprecating functionality (but not removing it)

PATCH (x.x.1): Increment for backward-compatible bug fixes:

  • Fixing selector bugs
  • Correcting data handling
  • Performance improvements
  • Minor visual tweaks

For example:

  • 1.0.0: Initial release
  • 1.0.1: Fixed a bug where a CSS selector stopped working
  • 1.1.0: Added support for a new page type
  • 2.0.0: Rewrote extension to handle major changes in the website structure

Now, let's look at recent development activities against that backdrop.

Activity Descriptions

Hiding resteems in feeds

First, and totally on a whim, I decided to add an option to show or hide resteems in an account's feed. This works in my own feed or in someone else's. At first, I placed the checkbox to do the hiding in the lower-left corner, but I had to move it later. More on that below.

Thanks to a bug report by @michelangelo3, I was also able to fix a bug where resteemed posts by followed accounts were being hidden, even though they should remain visible, from the perspective of the feed-owner (following account).

It also turned out that if you scroll down too far in the feed and then switch the checkbox, performance becomes intolerable, so I had to limit the toggle availability to 200 posts. If you scroll down below that, the checkbox disappears and you're stuck until reload with whatever setting was last picked. It's not a great solution, but it's the only one I have found for the time being.

Information for Curators

After adding the resteem option, I switched to the intended focus, which was adding some information for curators. Most of the fields are described here. In addition to those fields, I have now also added a summary of votes from the Steemit curation accounts, and a per-feed payout value (which was prompted by this suggestion from @denmarkguy). Here's what the overlay looks like now (in my dev branch):

Dark ModeLight Mode

The new "$ / feed" field is the one where this post gets its name. From browsing with this extension in place for a couple of evenings, it seems that this is broadly similar to the "pay per click" or "pay per view" models that we see on other platforms.

Of course, no metric will ever be perfect, but I think this one has the potential to be very useful in our ecosystem. There are, however, already some known drawbacks:

  1. As previously mentioned, followers can be double-counted, triple-counted, or more if they are also community subscribers and followers of a resteeming account.
  2. As soon as an unscrupulous author knows that they're being evaluated based on value per feed placement, they'll start creating alternate follower accounts in order to increase their feed-reach score.

This second point is where the Follower Network Score comes in. It occurs to me that similar scoring can be applied to community membership and resteeming accounts in order to detect the large-scale addition of inauthentic followers.

Now we encounter a new problem, though. Calculating the Follower Network Score is slow. It's far too slow for inclusion in the browser extension's overlay. So far, I see two potential solutions to this:

  1. Add a button to each article summary where the browser operator can click and wait patiently while the score is calculated.
  2. A separate standalone program with one or several dedicated accounts could calculate the score whenever a top-level post is published or resteemed and then it could vote on the post as a form of inter-process communications with the percentage set to a very small value that matches the score (Most likely, 1.41% or less). Since the list of voters is already available to the browser extension, this information would then be easily and quickly accessible.

Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself. The bottom-line is that no metric will ever be perfect, but I think there's good future potential for this "value per feed" concept. In browsing, I've seen the blockchain paying returns that range from $0.00000 to $9+ for each potential feed placement.

Hiding resteems in blog links

In conversation with @the-gorilla, it came to light that - in addition to feed links - I should also add the capability to hide resteems in blog links. So, I did. But that raised a new problem, because the lower-left corner, where I had the checkbox, is utilized in our blog pages. So, I moved the check-box to the top-center, inside the floating header section. Here's what it looks like altogether now for both feeds and blogs (again, in my dev branch).

LinkDark ModeLight Mode
Feed
Blog

@the-gorilla mentioned that he's adding the "hide resteem" functionality to condenser, so I'll eventually be taking it out of the browser extension, but it's available for the moment.

Looking ahead

I don't see much change from what I wrote last time,

From now until 2025, I think my focus will be on 3 areas: The Steem Curation Extension, the Steem Conversation Accelerator (SCA), and the word search game that I discussed a few weeks ago.

So you can see that post for more details about the long-term direction for these projects. This post is already getting overly long.

Next Steps

For this next interval, my main goal is to issue a first release in github using the semantic versioning label. I'll be testing today and tomorrow, and maybe I'll do that on Monday. The AIs said that I should also add the version in the extension's manifest.json file, but I'm not actually going to do that. I like having the release date in that file. Finally, I'll start with version 0.1.0, not 1.0.0 as Claude suggested. I don't feel like this should be considered a "stable" version yet (if ever).

Beyond that, I'm not sure. I'd like to integrate the network follower score into the browser extension to complement the "value per feed" metric, but I'm torn about how to move forward on that. I think that's also going to take longer than two weeks.

Maybe I'll let the first release "burn in" for a couple of weeks and shift my attention back to the Steem Conversation Accelerator (SCA) or the wordsearch for a while. I might also look at tag-following in one or both of those extensions. There's a lot that I want to accomplish, but after the unexpectedly quick progress of the last couple weeks, I also feel sort-of aimless at the moment.

Reflections

In the "Reflections" section of my previous post, I talked about the phenomenon of overvalued posts. I have thought for a years that the solution to this problem will eventually be a next-generation version of paid voting services which would outcompete the current iteration. I was having a hard time imagining what that might look like, though. All I had was that: (rewards + audience) > rewards alone.

Now, with the emergence of this "value per feed" metric, I'm starting to have some ideas about what a next-generation voting service might look like.

I still don't see a full picture, but here are some basic points:

Eliminate the need for daily posting

Instead of receiving daily votes, authors receive and bank daily credits. When they cash in the credits, it can be multiple times per day or it can be spaced out multiple days apart.

Vote sizes are awarded based upon feed-reach (with controls for inauthentic accounts), not just delegation/payment size

It is clear to me that authors should not be expected to be curators. Some authors may want to be curators, which is fine, but an author's primary contribution to the blockchain is their creative output. If they're spending their time curating, it might actually make them less useful to the blockchain.

So, it makes sense for authors to delegate their rewards to paid voting services in order to bootstrap and sustain their content creation activities. In my opinion, this should not be discouraged - provided that they're producing worthwhile content.

If voting services award votes in proportion to feed-reach, then the authors will be properly motivated to build their audience. Ultimately, that's what the blockchain is designed to pay for - people who create content and put it in front of other people.

In this case, the voting services will still draw revenue from delegations, straight-out vote buying, and from curation rewards, but the clients' incentives will be properly aligned with STEEM value growth.

Obviously, this is still not a complete picture, but I'm starting to see possibilities.

Conclusion

And that's a wrap. I had much more progress than expected in the last couple of weeks, and I'm very grateful for the feedback that I received from commenters with regards to changes in the Steem Curation Extension.

The two big improvements during this iteration were (i) the ability to hide resteemed posts; and (ii) addition of numerous fields in the curator's overlay.

In particular, although problems remain, I think there is a lot of promise for expansion and utilization of the feed-reach and "value per feed" metrics.

Personally, when I access condenser web sites from my cell phone, I find that I miss having some of the features that the curation extension provides on my desktop - so I know it's providing me with useful information. I hope it's useful for others who have been trying it out too.

If you haven't tried it out, I invite you to give it a try. And if you're a developer, I invite you to contribute. I'm figuring this out as I go, so no particular expertise is required - just a willingness to learn.


Thank you for your time and attention.

As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".




Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.


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 2 days ago 

That's all looking and sounding good. I like the idea of the voting bot being more rewarding if the user has a following but for this to work, all voting services will need to follow suit - i.e. if it's more profitable for an unpopular user to use an 'old skool' voting service, then they will. All of the shit authors will then use the 'old skool' version. Then the bar for 'New skool' will be higher and it might even mean that the middle tier will subsequently make more profit by moving to 'old skool'. In general, the motivation of these voting services is to make money for themselves, irrespective of the consequences to the wider chain so it feels like there's a long way to go with this idea.

 2 days ago (edited)

There's definitely a long way to go with the voting service idea, but the other side to the competitive dynamic is that the ROI for a successful author can be much higher than for the old-skool services, so that will (theoretically) attract more top-tier contributors. And they'd receive additional rewards from organic fans/followers, too - which could also be much larger than the voting service. Then, even if the old-skool bots remain, they should decline in visibility over a long enough timespan.

OTOH, I think it will have to be some sort of hybrid. The vote size would still have to be based partially on the size of the investment. No idea how it would be weighted, and I guess that would probably change over time according to market conditions.

Edited to add: The other aspect of this is that long-term investors might delegate to a service like this as a way to automate voting for the protection and growth of their investment.

 2 days ago 

the ROI for a successful author can be much higher than for the old-skool services, so that will (theoretically) attract more top-tier contributors.

For this to happen, my assumption is that somebody else’s rewards would need to be much lower - initiating their migration to other services.

I don’t know what kind of margin these voting services work with but the only way to avoid the “robbing Peter to pay Paul” analogy would be if they were willing to reduce their margins. Or maintain a higher voting capability themselves. i.e. the delegated amount will earn a consistent x% vote per STEEM delegated and the top authors are competing over the services own y STEEM vote value.

That could work.

 2 days ago 

And maybe the value for "y" could be increased by receiving delegations from non-author investors who are interested in protecting the value of their stake from devaluation. As @dan put it some years ago, (paraphrasing) an upvote for one post is the same as a downvote for all others.

Additionally, non-author delegators could be further incentivized with a share of curation rewards.

(rewards + audience) > rewards alone

I think you need to think about ROI from their perspective. For the people using these services today an audience is largely irrelevant (or maybe even counterproductive, for the most egregious abusers), they're mostly in it for the low-effort returns. Writing something good enough that an audience would appreciate it is hard work. I doubt you're going to be able to bribe people out of their current extractive business model. And there's not enough audience on the chain to be able to sell "visibility" here to anyone outside, and a pay-to-play structure is actively alienating to normies (the first incarnation of the bid-bot had this effect on several people I know who left the chain in disgust once they understood what was happening).

Maybe it is possible to have a voting-bot business model that isn't corrosive, but my guess would be that it's always going to be a problem because it runs against the basic "proof of brain" value proposition of the chain.

 2 days ago 

For the people using these services today an audience is largely irrelevant (or maybe even counterproductive, for the most egregious abusers), they're mostly in it for the low-effort returns.

Agreed. They're definitely not the target clientele for the next-generation voting services.

The point is to support legitimate content creation so that it becomes more profitable than the currently dominant model. There's a whole world full of audience who can be brought to bear with the right incentive structure. Stakeholders who don't want to see their stake devalued have plenty of reasons to find that incentive structure. Just because no one has found it doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. In fact, since the audience exists, I think that the incentive structure must also exist.

The point is to support legitimate content creation so that it becomes more profitable than the currently dominant model.

This is a laudable goal, but I'm skeptical that vote-bots are the way to do it. And since the current vote-bot business models are already very efficient at extracting a big chunk of value from the rewards pool I'm skeptical you can outgrow them, even if you figure out a more virtuous model.

In fact, since the audience exists

Does it? My read is that view counts were disabled because they were embarrassingly low, and traffic to the site overall has probably dropped even further since then. Relative to other internet sites I don't think there are a lot of people here, so there's not enough eyeballs to sell.

 yesterday 

And since the current vote-bot business models are already very efficient at extracting a big chunk of value from the rewards pool I'm skeptical you can outgrow them, even if you figure out a more virtuous model.

No doubt that it's a heavy lift, and it won't be me. I have no plans to run any paid voting services. But I have a hard time believing that someone with the right funding and motivations couldn't come up with a solution that wouldn't depend on clients to continuously cannibalize their own holdings. I'm just trying to imagine what a better solution might look like.

Certainly, there is no perfect answer, but I think that improvement is always possible.

Relative to other internet sites I don't think there are a lot of people here, so there's not enough eyeballs to sell.

Yeah, I agree with this. I'm imagining that content creators would be motivated to grow their audience by ambitiously promoting their own blogs outside the Steem ecosystem, just like they do for other platforms.

There's another wildcard in the mix, too. In about 1-2 years, we start to expect an increasingly sharper decline in creation of new STEEM per day. I'm not sure at all what that will mean for usage & ROI for the voting services (or organic usage, for that matter). It's going to be different from anything that we've seen in the past.

But I have a hard time believing that someone with the right funding and motivations couldn't come up with a solution that wouldn't depend on clients to continuously cannibalize their own holdings.

I don't find it hard to imagine that systems can get stuck in tragedy-of-the-commons traps where it becomes hard or impossible for individual actors to fix things. I'm not sure there's a person on the planet who has the resources to implement changes who would have the motivation "fix the Steem ecosystem". Why would they? They could probably do more good more profitably somewhere else.

I think that improvement is always possible.

I think improvement is possible, but you might be working on "let's invent a slightly-less-unhealthy soda for people to drink" when "drink water instead" is categorically better for that goal.

There's another wildcard in the mix, too. In about 1-2 years, we start to expect an increasingly sharper decline in creation of new STEEM per day.

I'm guessing it won't matter, subtle macro effects tend to be small so I think other factors will tend to dominate.

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