zafrada (78)in #mlb • 9 hours agoRIP, Pete Rose.He was an all-time great hitter, and his numbers would normally easily justify putting him in the Hall of Fame.…zafrada (78)in #nate • 2 days agoThis is a good thread to understand cross tabs in polling.But it also makes me wonder why Nate Cohn so often treats his Times/Siena cross tabs as gospel if he understands…zafrada (78)in #trump • 3 days agoTrump tactics sink to new thuggish lows.New SEO technique: threaten to prosecute leading search engine unless it starts making your results more flattering.…zafrada (78)in #rasmussen • 4 days agoNate continues racking up reasons to ignore him.Lol. Nate Silver didn't already have Rasmussen Reports labeled as a Republican pollster? He's a joke. At this point…zafrada (78)in #election • 5 days agoHere is an update on all the election forecasts.The Economist: Harris with a ~60% chance. FiveThirtyEight: Harris with a 58% chance. Nate Silver: Harris with a…zafrada (78)in #split • 5 days agoSplit Ticket's election forecast updates.Harris with 57% chance to win the presidency. Republicans with a 79% chance to take the Senate. And Democrats with a…zafrada (78)in #maryland • 6 days agoNew University of Maryland poll of Maryland.As expected Alsobrooks is starting to put distance between her and Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race. She is up…zafrada (78)in #election • 7 days agoPew polling of Latino voters matches what Biden got in 2020.This is from Pew's national polling from August 26th to September 2nd, so before the debate. This is a sample of 691…zafrada (78)in #election • 8 days agoThis is an underrated point.The Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 explicitly made the governor responsible for certification and they could only…zafrada (78)in #election • 9 days agoNew Times/Siena battleground polling of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.Some of Trump's best state polling in awhile. Fwiw the North Carolina poll was conducted partly before the Mark…zafrada (78)in #electoral • 10 days agoHere is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020…zafrada (78)in #tweet • 10 days agoThought Jesse was one of the good ones.This tweet response is even dumber when you read what it is responding to. Why yes the presence of a devastating…zafrada (78)in #election • 12 days agoIt is always kinda a weird argument when people saying voting doesn't matter.Even at the presidential level, we've had incredibly close elections recently. And there's nothing intrinsically…zafrada (78)in #poll • 13 days agoNew Emerson poll of Maryland.Alsobrooks up by 7 points. Harris up by 31 points (Biden carried the state by 33 points in 2020). I wouldn't sweat…zafrada (78)in #american • 13 days agoAbout the only thing I agree on is voting isn't the end of all this and fascism won't bVoting is a quite low cost civic element.Me: I'm not gonna argue with people who basically have said they're not voting Also me: lobs grenade It ain't that…zafrada (78)in #fed • 14 days agoThe Fed updated its projections for the economy.No change on GDP growth. A recession isn't expected. They expect slightly higher unemployment peaking at 4.4% (we…zafrada (78)in #fed • 15 days agoFederal Reserve's independence being threatened.Economist Jason Furman on Trump's threats to interfere with the Federal Reserve: "...the possibility that he follows…zafrada (78)in #democrat • 16 days agoIt is understandable of people to be skeptical of Democrats on certain agenda items.But on abortion rights at least there has been an actual effort to codify Roe in Congress. A codification bill…zafrada (78)in #vance • 17 days agoThis is basically the entire history of the US.Immigrants and refugees like to go where there are already established social support networks and communities. It is…zafrada (78)in #election • 18 days agoNew YouGov poll after the debate.Harris up by 5 points among registered voters. 50% vote share. This represents a 4 point increase for Harris since…