Yet another puzzle - this time about the pending rewards
No time to look at this now, but maybe I'll get time later.
What happened between October 25 and October 26?
Source: Daily median of pending_rewarded_vesting_steem from SteemDB (as reported by PowerBI).
I'm curious to see if it jumps back up after 7 days - between Nov. 1 and Nov. 2.
Update: FWIW, it looks similar when I check Min/Max/Average, too...
Minimum
Maximum
Average
Right, the regularity is astonishing. But at the moment I don't have any idea... Maybe a closer look at the calculation algorithms can help to clarify...
I have two theories, but I don't like either of them.
1.) It could be a change in posting or voting behavior. Something we observed in past hardforks is that the rewards pool takes a while to reach its equilibrium state. I never understood the exact mechanics of it, but in the days after a couple of the hardforks, rewards dropped to near-zero while the blockchain was ramping up under the new rewards schedule. Apparently, user voting behavior effected that ramp-up. I think it would take a pretty massive change in voting/posting behavior to move it like that, though. Like multiple-whales worth of changes.
2.) It's still some sort of delayed reaction to the API problems in late August or early September. Rewards dropped, immediately after that (understandably), then rebounded to a higher level. Last week had some of the highest values in the SteemDB output. Maybe this is some-sort of counter-rebound while the rewards are trying to get back to equilibrium?
Feels like I'm grasping at straws, though. Both theories seem unlikely.
I did notice that the 12 lowest values available in that API (i.e. after August 21) were all recorded in the last week and 8 of the 10 highest were recorded between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24.
Meanwhile, today continued the trend. Oct. 31 and the first collections from Nov. 1 are even lower than the ones I posted yesterday.
I have checked whether this could be caused solely by the amount of claimed tokens and have analysed the operations on the days.
I quickly created the following graphic.
You can see quite clearly that an above-average amount of VESTS (converted into SP by me) were claimed on 25 October 2023.
Note: The numbers in the y-axis are in German notation (so you have to switch the dot and comma).
Oh, that clears up a lot. Thanks! I guess, then, that we would also see a larger than usual claimed value between Oct. 30 and Oct. 31
So I was thinking about it wrong.
pending_rewarded_vesting_steemis after payout, and pending claim. I was thinking that it was after the vote and pending payout. Also, it's apparently not a subset ofreward_balance, but rather, it's a separate pool - so my "undirected rewards" assumption was also wrong.Right! :-)
Now I include only Oct. 24, 25, 26 and 29, 30 and Nov. 1.
Although the days of both crashes do not match exactly (the first claim peak is a day earlier and the second on the same day), I still think these are the reasons. Perhaps the medians from the steemdb data have also shifted a little.
I don't know. So far, I have only identified a fraction of the possible changes to the funds in the code. So I can't yet say exactly how this is related.
Hi @remlaps-lite ,According to predictions that certainly do not work, they say that the cryptocurrency market tends to rise in the first half of November, we will see.
I wish you a happy day
I don't try to guess about the month-to-month changes, but with the BTC halving cycle, I'm expecting to see mostly positive movement during the next 15 months or so (followed by a big drop shortly after that). But you're right, predictions are unreliable, so that could definitely be wrong. Only time will tell ;-).
I hope you have a good day, too.